After MSNBC last night punditing about how the GOP is expecting a landslide victory and are smugly staying quiet because they don’t want anything to change that would upset a Dump victory really threw me and I’m sure many others. Especially since the hosts appear to believe such a result is very possible should Biden stay the course — including Maddow and Reid. The folks joining the Biden drop out club now purportedly includes Pelosi, Hakeem Jefferies and Schumer who spoke privately to the President. WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW???
I write this diary because I am very confused about the state of our party. I leave this here as last night was brutal…
Who is Allan Lichtman and How Accurate Has He Been?
Allan Lichtman, an esteemed professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., has garnered considerable acclaim for his extraordinary ability: correctly predicting the outcomes of nine out of the past ten presidential elections. His predictive prowess stems from the development of his innovative model, famously known as the 13 Keys. Through meticulous analysis and deep understanding of historical patterns, Lichtman has established himself as a prominent figure in the realm of political forecasting.
Allan Lichtman’s Prediction for 2024
In an interview, on Times Radio on February, 2024, Lichtman revealed some insights about his system, noting that despite frequent political discussions and regular polls, it is too soon to predict the next election’s outcome.
In the 2024 model, the best chance for the Democrats to win is to have Biden run. This strategy secures two of the ’13 Keys’: the incumbency key, where the sitting president is running, and the lack of a substantial internal party conflict. The power of incumbency is underscored by the 2008 and 2016 elections, where the party in power suffered due to open seats. In the ’13 Keys’ system, six keys would have to fall for the Democrats to be predicted to lose.
Lichtman noted that several keys remain undecided, such as economic performance, foreign policy success, scandal presence, and social unrest. Despite this uncertainty, Lichtman asserted that Biden’s current strategy is the Democrats’ best bet for victory.
When asked about Donald Trump’s chances, Lichtman clarified that the ’13 Keys’ model is more concerned with the White House party’s strength and performance than the opposition candidate’s identity. Only one key pertains to the opposition candidate, requiring them to be a once-in-a-generation, inspirational figure, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, to swing the key against the party in power.
No current Republican, according to Lichtman, matches the broad appeal of Ronald Reagan. While Trump is charismatic, he appeals to a much narrower base than Reagan did. Lichtman maintained that the identity of the candidate makes no significant difference to his predictive model. And also emphasized that Biden shall win the upcoming US Federal elections 2024.
Allan Lichtman’s FAQ’s
What is Lichtman’s Prediction Record?
Considering the available data, Allan Lichtman has been able to predict 9 of the last 10 US elections using his 13 Keys to the White House. Allan Lichtman in 2000 predicted a win for Al Gore, however, George W Bush went on to defeat Al Gore and become the US President.
Is Allan Lichtman a Democrat or a Republican?
Allan Lichtman ran for U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.
What is Allan Lichtman’s Prediction for Election 2024?
Allan Lichtman has predicted a win for Joe Biden using his 13 Keys to the White House.
BTW, he also predicted Gore’s win in 2000 that SCOTUS snatched away in Bush v. Gore. Lichtman also addresses the Kamala Harris factor and the impact of the assassination attempt on 45:
Allan Lichtman on Kamala Harris as Biden’s Replacement
In his latest YouTube video Allan Lichtman mentioned that if Democrats want to replace Joe Biden, they must ask him to resign and after Kamala Harris takes over as President, Biden should transfer all the delegates to Kamala Harris. This will keep the pro-incumbency for Biden intact and it will be transferred to Kamala Harris.
In an interview, Allan Lichtman told The Wall Street Journal that President Joe Biden is still the safest bet for Democrats and even Kamala Harris will not be able to save the Democrats based on his “Key to the White House” model.
The full write up is here. I do not understand what is going on with the Democratic Party right now but whatever it is it is not about a single debate performance.
I also do not understand why all these polls are asking the irrelevant question of whether Biden should drop out or would you prefer that Biden pass the torch??? Who cares what we prefer or whether someone thinks Biden should drop out...we are trying save this democracy!!! The relevant polling question is if Biden and Trump are the candidates on the ticket who will you vote for...period. There are many things we prefer or think should happen….who cares! I prefer that 45 was not running at all and never entered politics but that is not an option. Where are the polls asking if there is a match between Biden and 45 who will you vote for?????