A few days ago I sent the following letter to both of my Senators:
Dear Senator ,
I am writing as one of your constituents and a straight-ticket Democratic voter. I have voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988. I will vote for the Democratic candidate this year, as well.
My loyalty to the Democratic party compels me to ask for drastic action on your part: please prevail on President Biden to not just withdraw from campaigning, but to resign from the presidency, as well.
President Biden has been a great public servant and an excellent president. However, I fear that his current, reduced condition puts his entire legacy at risk. A second Trump presidency would imperil important values of American democracy and economic strength for which President Biden has fought. It is imperative that we defeat Trump.
President Biden’s resignation would allow Vice President Harris to campaign with at least some of the strength that incumbency provides. I do not support a contested convention or any sort of late primary. I would vote enthusiastically for Vice President Harris, and I would love to see her choose a running mate like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
If President Biden is the Democratic nominee, I will, reluctantly, vote for him. But I will vote with a sense of dread that he will lose to Trump.
A number of recent diarists and commenters have discussed Allan Lichtman and the keys to the White House he has developed, as well they should. Lichtman has an outstanding track record both of predicting as well as backtesting presidential elections. We ignore his work at our peril.
If President Biden resigns, not just from campaigning, but also from the presidency, Vice President Harris would benefit from at least some of the strengths of incumbency after assuming office. That would give her Key 3.
If we unite quickly behind Harris and she wins at least two thirds of Biden’s delegates in the first round of voting, then she would retain Key 2, as well.
Lichtman has urged Democrats to keep Biden as our candidate, but he has made the same points that I made to my Senators: there is a plausible Plan B.
The most direct precedent for an ill or incapacitated president seeking reelection is FDR in 1944. I would argue, though, that we find ourselves in a much less forgiving media landscape. It is at least arguable that a president perceived as unable to govern would lose the benefits of incumbency.
I would like to add one final note. Whether we stick with Biden or not, we will never know what would have happened if we had made the other choice. If Trump does win, we will need unity more than ever.