A week before this, in 1988, A NYT/CBS News poll (as reliable as any other pollster at the time) had George HW Bush at 41%, Michael Dukakis at 47%. This agreed with most other polls at the time. Prior to this, one pollster had Dukakis as much at 17 pts ahead.
Now we know what happened to the Dukakis campaign… and it involved Joe Biden.
Dukakis campaign guru John Sasso leaked the video of Biden plagiarizing the UK Labor Leader in a speech (the monster) .. the press did a gotcha of Biden, he didn’t handle it well and he dropped out of the race.
Barrett helped break the news that the Kinnock attack video had come from the campaign of one of Biden’s main opponents, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. Paul Tully, a top aide to Dukakis, denied, on the record, that the video had come from the campaign, and Barrett says Tully expressed disbelief that the story would run anyway when they saw each other in Iowa. “I told you we were doing this story,” Barrett recalls telling Tully. “He looked at me as if I had done something awful.” Dukakis at first denied the story when the magazine hit newsstands, but hours later took back his denial. It was a particular embarrassment for the man known as the “straight arrow” candidate because of his “positive campaigning” tactics. Two of his aides stepped down: John Sasso, who leaked the video, and Tully, for lying to TIME.
Sasso, of course, was Dukakis’ David Axelrod, the guy that was going to take Dukakis to the top. Getting rid of him over such a minimal transgression was a huge mistake. The Dukakis campaign began to immediately drift from one bad strategy to another.
The infamous Dukakis tank incident
Dukakis was on video riding around in a tank, supposedly to up his commander in chief credentials. He looked ridiculous, like a kid playing dressup, and it only highlighted his opponents significant qualifications in this area (Veep, fmr CIA Chief, WW II veteran). The Bush campaign made an ad of it, and it was devastating.
And then there was Willy Horton —
A prisoner in Massachusetts who was a part of a furlough program who raped a woman during his release. Never mind that this furlough program was long-standing, fairly standard practice. Dukakis didn’t personally as Governor choose Horton and escort him from prison. But the damage was done. The Bush campaign seized on this and made a famous ad that was incredibly racist (there is a myth that Trump’s racism is something new to the GOP).
And then there was the debate. The single worst moment for a Democrat in a Presidential debate was not Biden in 2024. It was Dukakis in 1988. Dukakis was asked, given he is against the death penalty, what would he do if wife Kitty Dukakis was raped and murdered.
Now, if you watch the other parts of the debate, Dukakis is ridiculously smarter, more composed and more competent than Bush Sr. He may have even won the debate. But his lackluster, passionless answer, sealed his fate. One could imagine Biden handling this question well. The right answer of course is to look like you are going to leap over the podium, grab Bernard Shaw by the collar, and say how dare you speak that way about my wife, and harm her safety by even insinuating that. I betcha Trump would nail this response.
Anyway, the point is… Sasso would never have allowed this stuff to happen. He wouldn’t have done the tank, he would have had Dukakis prepared for the debate… who knows… maybe Bush was gonna win anyway, but the scandal-free and hyper-competent Dukakis would have likely run a much closer campaign (if not won) had he not OVER-REACTED.
You see fellow Dems, the point of this is WE ARE OVER-REACTING. The same way the Dukakis campaign wouldn’t just let a 3-day inside baseball story play out and move on. Maybe Republicans should have been pressured to replace George Bush in July of 1988?
Let’s support Biden all the way, ride this out, and beat Trump.
[By the way, I am convinced the oust-Biden movement is about 1) DLC/wealthy Dems unhappy Biden has turned into Bernie as President; 2) greedy House and Senate Dems thinking if enough people suffer for 2 years, they’ll sweep the mid-terms; 3) a belief that Kamala can’t win now or in 28, so shooting her shot now, losing, and opening the field for 28, for possibly a Dem more frienddly to the ruling classes,]
Anyway, for now enjoy Dukakis After Dark, a devastating SNL skit (from when SNL was funny) from the week before the 1988 election.