I do not have an entirely clear conviction on whether or not President Biden should stay in the 2024 race. The main reason I feel that way (to paraphrase Gandalf the Grey) is because not even the wisest among us can see all possible ends in such a complex situation. And, if someone truly is wise, why would they even expect to?
But one thing I will say is that the case for Biden staying in is clearer to me than the case for him stepping aside. I am not saying that either one of these options is an unalloyed good. The Democratic party is in a tough spot (although so are the Republicans). All I’m saying is that I understand the rationale for Biden staying in more than I understand the demands for him to step aside.
In fact, the case for Biden staying in seems pretty obvious: he’s the incumbent president; he has an impressive first term record to run on; he has already proven that he can defeat Donald Trump; and his reelection campaign is already well organized, well funded, and well underway. These are powerful points. They should not be overlooked or dismissed. And I will admit that one thing that really does get on my nerves about calls for Biden to step aside is that they tend to just ignore or minimize all or most of the very important considerations listed above.
Nevertheless, there is indeed a legitimate counter argument: Biden is now too old, he has quite obviously deteriorated during his four years in office, and the first debate revealed at the very least that he is no longer capable of campaigning for the office of President (and at worst that debate revealed that in fact he should immediately resign). These are also powerful points. One of the reasons why they just don’t persuade me as much as the argument for Biden to stay in, however, is that I feel like something is missing. A plan.
Whether you think it’s foolhardy or not, there’s an obvious plan forward if Biden stays in the race. As an incumbent President presiding over a booming economy, historical precedent suggests that he retains a very real chance of victory just by staying in the campaign. So he stays in and finishes the race as best he can. Yes, that is in fact an entirely legit plan.
But I know of no obvious plan forward if Biden steps aside. And I am fairly certain that this is one of the main reasons - if not in fact the primary explanation - for why Biden has not stepped aside yet and may not step aside at all.
When top Democrats (supposedly) tell him to step down, I’m pretty sure he insists that they have to actually convince him to do so. Biden will want to see polling indicating that he cannot possibly win, but that polling does not (at present) exist. Biden will also want to see polling that clearly states another Democratic candidate could win (but that also doesn’t exist). Biden will want to know what the actual process will be for determining his replacement, and there simply may not be a good one. In short, Biden will almost certainly demand to know what is the actual plan should he step down, and I don’t think he’s heard a convincing response yet.
As best I can tell, the “drop Biden” faction is demanding action without a clear idea of what will follow if they get their wish. And that sort of approach strikes me as disconcertingly close to panic. So if I am right and Biden is a.) refusing to yield to panic and b.) holding out for someone to present him with a convincing plan of action should he step down, then I’m inclined to think he is in fact handling a legitimately difficult situation pretty well.
Oh, and by the way, the Republican candidate is a twice-impeached convicted felon. I like to try and set a good example, and no article about this election (on DailyKos or anywhere else) should ever neglect to mention those points!