Another tipping point topples. Quite recently there were analysts predicting robust growth in natural gas in the US, as it replaces rapidly disappearing coal-fired electricity generation. But, as so often happens, they reckoned without exponential growth in wind, solar, and storage.
S&P Global Commodity Insights: Is US natural gas generation set to peak in 2023?
Beyond the short-term gas price increases, increased production from wind and solar facilities is expected to have an increasingly material role in the overall composition of the power supply mix. While total power supply demand is expected to grow in response to the electrification of transportation and other energy end uses, and coal generation will continue to decline as more coal-fired power plants retire, gains in wind and solar generation will more than offset those trends and serve to suppress the need for natural gas-fired generation. The chart [above] illustrates both S&P Global Commodity Insights' Planning Case outlook for US gas-fired power generation and the uncertainty around that outlook depending on the magnitude of future wind and solar development.
This turns out to have huge international consequences.
Natural Gas Intelligence: North American Natural Gas Demand Said ‘Approaching Its Peak,’ with Storage Needs Also Slipping
Natural gas demand in the United States and Canada is expected to peak in the next year [2024], even as production remains strong and LNG exports are projected to increase through 2050, according to consultancy firm DNV.
“Currently, fossil fuels account for around 80% of energy supply in the U.S. and Canada, but this will drop to less than 50% by 2050,” the DNV researchers said. Natural gas demand in North America is set to drop by 40% by 2050, with oil down by 75% and coal consumption falling by 86%.
“Natural gas demand is approaching its peak, and consumption will almost halve by 2050 as power generation becomes dominated by renewables.”
“The cost efficiencies of renewable power are proving irresistible, even in the land of Big Oil,” said CEO Remi Eriksen. “The $12 trillion investment required in renewables and grid infrastructure in the U.S. and Canada should be viewed as an opportunity to put the region at the heart of the global energy transition, while reducing domestic energy bills for households.”
More Methane Tipping Points Ahead
After peak in mature markets, global gas demand is set for slower growth in coming years
Overall gas demand from mature markets in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America peaked in 2021, and is forecast to decline by 1% annually through to 2026, according to the report. An accelerated rollout of renewables and improved energy efficiency are among the key drivers behind the downward trend for natural gas in these markets. For Europe, the loss of piped gas from Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, pressed governments to seek alternative solutions to maintain energy security.
Global gas demand is on course to grow by an average on 1.6% a year between 2022 and 2026, down from an average of 2.5% a year between 2017 and 2021, says the Gas 2023 Medium-Term Market Report.
Decreasing demand in mature markets across the world – a collection of countries that represents almost half of global gas consumption – means that growth will be highly concentrated in fast-growing Asian markets as well as some gas-rich economies in the Middle East and Africa. China alone is expected to account for almost half of the total growth in global gas demand between 2022 and 2026, drawing on the fuel to serve its industrial production, power sector and urban areas.
“After their heyday between 2011 and 2021, the world’s gas markets have entered a new and more uncertain period that is likely to be characterised by slower growth and higher volatility – and could lead to a peak in global demand by the end of this decade,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.
Thus More Cheaper Renewables means More Heat Pumps.
Europe
LNG (Liquified Natural Gas)
Russia
Geothermal
Personal
Denial
Natural gas is in decline in the US, but not gaslighting from industry and MAQA.
Project 2025 Cribs from Orwell
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Anthropogenic Global Warming/Climate change/renewable energy—A hoax; the conspiracy to “ban the fuels that run almost all of the world’s cars, planes, factories, farms, and electricity grids.”; “America’s vast reserves of oil and natural gas are not an environmental problem; they are the lifeblood of economic growth.”; Climate fanaticism
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The “Great Awokening”—“A totalitarian cult”
On Daily Kos
Earth Matters: Kagan blasts Supreme 6 for playing Jenga with eco-laws; GOP renewables support slips by Meteor Blades
SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS BEEN BIPARTISAN. PEW SAYS THAT’S GOING AWAY
The headline writer has it backwards.
But there’s a big age gap among Republicans, with 67% of those aged 18 to 29 say the priority should be for wind, solar, and hydrogen development, while 76% among the oldest Republican cohort (age 65 or more) say developing oil, coal, and natural gas should be the highest priority.
Max Planck got it. It isn’t only science, of course.