• NY-24: Rep. Claudia Tenney launched a new campaign ad on Thursday touting an endorsement from Donald Trump—the very same day a jury convicted her number-one patron on 34 felony charges in a Manhattan courtroom.
"I'm here for Claudia," the audience hears Trump say of the upstate New York Republican. "She has been incredible."
It's no surprise that Tenney, who predictably denounced the trial after the verdict was announced, is continuing to hug her party's felonious master tightly even as she touts herself as a supporter of law enforcement. But the most revealing part of this ad is that the seemingly secure incumbent devotes the remainder of it to attacking a longshot intra-party foe.
"Mario Fratto is pro-crime," the narrator declares of the little-known attorney challenging Tenney in the June 25 primary for the conservative 24th District. The ad goes on to play audio of Fratto saying, "I can go pretty far left … Trump crossed many lines."
Tenney defeated Fratto 54-40 in 2022, an unimpressive showing in a primary for a well-funded congresswoman who, just like now, also enjoyed Trump's backing in that campaign. However, that previous race took place under some unusual circumstances that aren't present this time around.
Two years ago, New York's new congressional map radically reshaped district lines upstate. Tenney had represented the old 22nd District, and much of her Utica-area base remained there after redistricting. But the new 22nd also added Democratic areas like Syracuse, transforming it from a district Trump had carried 55-43 to won Joe Biden would have won 53-45.
The revamped 24th District in the Finger Lakes region, meanwhile, contained just 6% of Tenney's constituents, but due to the departures of multiple Republican congressmen, it was an open seat. It was also much redder than the 22nd, since it would have backed Trump by a 57-40 margin.
Tenney decided it was better to run for a more conservative district even if it meant taking her chances with voters who didn't know her. The choice was understandable: Even in the old, pro-Trump 22nd, Tenney had managed to lose her bid for a second term to Democrat Anthony Brindisi in 2018, and she only won a rematch two years later by just 109 votes.
Tenney's decision to switch districts deterred any established local politicians from challenging her for the new seat, but Fratto decided to give it a go. While Tenney's huge financial lead and support from Trump more than offset her weak ties to the new 24th, her relatively modest 14-point win was enough to encourage Fratto to try again this cycle.
Tenney ended March with a $668,000 to $472,000 cash on hand advantage over Fratto, who is self-financing almost all of his renewed effort. Notably, that gap is considerably smaller than Tenney's advantage at any point in the 2022 race. (Updated figures are due June 13.)
The challenger has argued that Tenney, who has a long history of far-right rhetoric, is an outsider who is still not right-wing enough for her new constituents. Fratto kicked off his effort last year by claiming that, since their first battle, the incumbent had "doubled down on the bad policies that filled the carpet bag she dragged into our district last year, moving over 100 miles from her childhood home to stay in office."
Tenney, though, now has considerably more name recognition than she did two years ago. And while the Democratic-run state legislature passed a new map that made the 22nd District, which is held by freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams, a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, the alterations to the 24th weren't dramatic. Tenney currently represents close to 90% of the revamped seat, which would have favored Trump by an even wider 59-39 margin in 2020.
Tenney, however, is taking Fratto seriously enough to think he's worth targeting on the airwaves. She's one of almost two dozen House members from both parties who faces a notable intra-party challenge, though so far, the 2024 primary cycle hasn't been particularly bad for incumbents.
Some Republicans, like Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz and Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, have had to fight hard for renomination. But the only loss for a sitting member so far came about in an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup following a round of court-ordered redistricting, with Alabama Republican Jerry Carl the luckless casualty.
Carl may have company in this unwelcome club before long, however, as Tenney is one of several members under pressure during a busy month of primaries taking place throughout June.
• WV-Gov, WV-Sen: Retiring Sen. Joe Manchin just changed his party registration from Democratic to unaffiliated on Friday, which means that we're probably stuck with at least two more months of speculation over whether he could run for the Senate or governor as an independent. Axios writes that Manchin, who will still caucus with the Democrats, is "more serious about a potential governor's run" than in seeking reelection.
The state gives such candidates until Aug. 1 to turn in signatures representing 1% of the total vote in the last contest for the seat they're seeking, which comes to about 7,800 for governor and 5,900 for Senate.