Hello, everyone. Good morning, afternoon or evening, and welcome to this edition of Notes from South Asia. You can find all the articles in the series here (along with my other diaries).
Now that the high from Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) retreat in the 2024 Indian parliamentary elections has come down, we get more sobering analysis about the future of the country. Not all of that is heartening but we can read it all the same. Plus, you have news about persecution of Ahmadayas and dissenters in Pakistan and the condition of Malaiyaha Tamil tea workers in Sri Lanka in today’s edition.
India
A Continuation of Modi 2.0
Dalit scholar Anand Teltumbde who had been in jail but is now out on bail writes for the Wire: To Think of Modi 3.0 as Less Dangerous Would Be a Misreading.
Modi with his characteristic hubris appeared invincible. He gave a slogan to win more than 400 seats in the 2024 election, which was required to change the Constitution as some of his colleagues leaked. In truth, little remained to be accomplished by him with the new mandate; everything was already being done in blatant violation of the Constitution. He behaved like a president in a presidential system; the federal structure was effectively dismantled by starving states of resources, reducing even their police power to insignificance, and using governors to cripple their legislative authority. Even the ‘Hindu rashtra’ was achieved in de facto terms, with minorities openly humiliated as non-citizens. The 2024 mandate was still sought to legitimise the transformation in the eyes of the global community. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s two country wide marches, Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Nyaya Yatra, and enhancement in his mass appeal, it did not appear to score the numbers so as to dislodge the BJP from power.
He thinks that Modi Magic is still there as strong as ever.
Some commentators lazily attributed the BJP’s defeat to popular resentment against Modi. They were perhaps projecting their own feelings onto the people, claiming that the populace was fed up with the Hindu-Muslim rhetoric, had slowly realised the hollowness of his claims, and were sceptical about giving him another chance. Some even asserted that people were fatigued by his looming presence everywhere. Unfortunately, the reality did not support these beliefs. The BJP’s vote share in 2024, at 37.37%, is virtually the same as its 37.34% share in 2019. This indicates that nothing – not even his foul-mouthed, anti-Muslim propaganda, unbecoming of a prime minister during his election campaigns – had any adverse impact on the voters. In the 2019 election, it was the Pulwama incident that boosted his vote share and seat tally to 303. In 2024, BJP’s vote share remained stable, even as its seat tally fell to 240, significantly below the majority mark of 272.
Most commentators fail to understand that his appeal is essentially rooted in his pedestrian and opprobrious expressions, which the masses easily identify with. He is perceived by the masses as anti-elitist, anti-intellectual, risen from a humble class/caste background and hence their own man. His bravado (56” sina) and hubris (“ghar me ghuske marenge“), though unbecoming of his stature, place him in the mould of a hero challenging the established demonic forces. His disdain for democratic norms is seen as contempt for bureaucratic procedures brought in by colonial government.
During the election, video coverage by many YouTubers, eager to capture anti-Modi mood among the masses, frustratingly showed people still favouring him despite having numerous complaints about their dire circumstances. These perplexing responses were barely understood by the presenters. People associated complaints with the administration, the Babudom, not Modi. People agreed that there was unemployment, back-breaking price rise, and unfulfilled promises, but they did not even remotely consider Modi to be blamed. There are no sign of Modi magic waning, at least going by the numbers. To read it in the drastic reduction of his victory margin may be erroneous.
I disagree somewhat.
I think that BJP has plateaued. Besides, as per Lokniti-CSDS survey, in Uttar Pradesh, which is perhaps the most populous state in India, more people wanted Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister than Modi (36 for RaGa vs. 32). That is a significant change. The BJP vote share went from over fifty percent to around forty to forty one percent in UP. It is mitigated by vote share rise to around 18% or so in the South. I imagine that is why the country wide vote share looks similar to 2019.
It means that people should be working actively against Hindu Supremacy both in the South and North. But it does not mean there was no change.
That does not mean the bigotry is gone. However, it does mean that its effect has waned. And we can work with that.
However, he is right that the state persecution would be just as bad as it had been leading up to 2024 election. Plus, of course, the militant associates of BJP would be doing their best to stir up religious violence to consolidate Hindu votes. They did it in Maharashtra though it did not work this time around. It might work in other places though.
He does praise the opposition though for their unity. And I agree with him on that. There was strange camaraderie and unity in how they campaigned. Strange because it is heretofore unseen. :) And I agree with this advice of his.
The opposition needed to mend a few more things. It needs to discard its blinkers that they can win Hindu votes with their ‘me too Hindu’ kind of posturing. The anti-BJP Hindus, are not looking for Hindus but the ones who are firmly opposed to BJP’s communal Hinduness. If they convince them, most of the anti-BJP votes, which is more than 60%, can potentially come to the INDIA bloc.
Plus, he says that the problem is with our first past the post electoral system and I agree. That is, even with a minority of vote share, BJP can win a majority of seats (provided they get the distribution correct).
Or may be not
Okay the Hindu Frontline is all happy happy happy. So, let me share some of their analysis too. Vaishna Roy in her editorial (you can check out the image).
I don’t have to remind Frontline’s readers about Umberto Eco’s 14 aspects of Ur-Fascism, of which he said, “it is enough that one of them be present to allow fascism to coagulate around it”, but it would be worth reiterating a few. For instance, the cult of tradition, the rejection of modernity, the idea that disagreement is treason, the obsession with historical victimhood and muscular retaliation—these are but a few of the signifiers Eco lists that contain within them the seeds of great social damage. We have seen them sprout and spread with astonishing speed in the past decade. The results of the just concluded Lok Sabha election are the first indication in 10 years that the country might finally get a shot at weeding out some of these dangerous ideas.
The answer to how India got here has been oft repeated—the biggest opposition party, the Indian National Congress, willingly oversaw its implosion. Clumsy, top-heavy, and far removed from the grassroots, the party was no match for the uber-wealthy, nimble, technocratic demagoguery of the BJP. Moreover, the BJP is ideologically driven, which makes it a formidable, committed, and zealous opponent while the Congress party’s effete drawing-room politics had no convincing ideology or passionate rebuttal on offer.
In addition, institutions crumbled, and a shamelessly servile broadcast media shifted en masse from journalism to PR, devotedly relaying the government’s press releases and talking points. The so-called liberal media were no less guilty. Take Modi’s meditation in Kanyakumari, timed just before the final phase of election on June 1 when his constituency Varanasi went to the polls, ensuring that photographs of his piety were widely published long after the Model Code of Conduct had kicked in, a tactic he deployed in 2019 as well. Everyone raged at the supine ECI, but all it required was for media houses to choose not to publish these photographs, thereby quite rightly denying unethical advantage to one candidate. Such editorial judgment has been missing for a while now, subsumed by fear of reprisal or a mindless understanding of media “neutrality” or simply a tragic decline in the profession’s adversarial role.
Against such formidable odds, the 232 seats totted up by the parties who allied under the opposition INDIA bloc is cause for celebration, not so much as an electoral victory but for what these 232 seats can ensure when Parliament reconvenes with 293 seats on the Treasury benches. The previous tenure saw two MPs who critiqued the Prime Minister banned from Parliament on flimsy grounds. It saw ugly hate speech by ruling party MPs, a toadying Speaker who spectacularly forsook his duty, and important Bills passed with no discussion or by brute majority. This can change when governments have to take on board many voices. It might be messy, but as large, tumultuous, and diverse as India is, it needs a government that understands chaos theory.
She may be right about that but I am not convinced, yet. I am more on Prof Anand Teltumbde’s side on this one.
Rest of the articles are mostly state by state analysis. Instead of doing more on Maharashtra or Rajasthan, let me share one on Punjab where after decades, Sikh militancy, or the ideology, may be resurgent.
Punjab Elections
Gautam Dheer reports on the election results in Punjab.
The outcome of the Lok Sabha election in Punjab, while presenting significant takeaways, also presents an interesting and intriguing paradox. On the one hand, the Congress, in spite of its tainted history of Operation Blue Star in 1984 and the anti-Sikh pogrom that followed, won seven of the 13 seats. On the other, in Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot constituencies, a parallel undercurrent on these sensitive issues polarised voters against the Congress and ensured the rise of radicals.
However, the triumph of Amritpal Singh, the jailed Khalistan ideologue (from Khadoor Sahib) and the victory of another Sikh radical, Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, in Faridkot, cannot be misconstrued as representing a Statewide endorsement of separatism. Still, the results are worrying as they have ramifications for the polity and social order in the border State. Strikingly, Amritpal won by 1.97 lakh votes, the highest among all the seats in the State. Khalsa also won with a decent margin of over 70,000 votes. The election results proved again that the State remains the only happy hunting ground for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) when it comes to Lok Sabha victories. The party managed to win three seats, but this must be seen in the context of its sweep of the Assembly election in 2022, winning 92 of 117 seats.
The victory for the Congress came, ironically, on a day that marked four decades of Operation Blue Star, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s mission to storm the Golden Temple to flush out militants that left her vulnerable. The radicals who won this time immediately announced that they would not celebrate their victory until June 6, the day Operation Blue Star ended in 1984, as a mark of solidarity.
Unlike in the diaspora—made up of Sikhs who left Punjab long before or during the insurgency—most of the Sikhs in Punjab do not support separatist politics. Not now, not earlier. However, the BJP has been stirring up trouble there (just like Indira Gandhi did with Bhindrenwale) and it is unlikely to go anywhere pleasant.
If you would like academic work on the subject, Dr. Inderpal Grewal is good.
As per a Hindu article I read—before elections—the menace of drugs in Punjab is also a reason for people supporting Amritpal Singh who campaigned against drugs and other vices. The government has been unable to stop it or help people whose kids are getting addicted to drugs. As per an article of Dr. Grewal’s, the people of Punjab’s reminiscences of the militancy also included approval of the group’s crack down on alcohol (no drugs then). Otherwise, it was a pretty hard time for them.
Unlike the Congress, the AAP or the BJP, Amritpal Singh and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa did not have a well-oiled machinery or the bandwidth to contest elections. Their campaign focus remained limited to local issues, water dispute, Sikh Panthic subjects, eradication of drugs, the 1984 anti-Sikh genocide, and quest for justice. The release of Bandi Singhs, Sikh prisoners who are languishing in prison even after the completion of their prison terms, also featured prominently in their agenda.
On the ground, there was anger against the Bhagwant Mann government after the police detained hundreds of youths last year in the government’s overkill to arrest Amritpal. All this added up to convert radical sentiments into votes for the hardliners.
Indian Workers in the Gulf
The Hindu Bureau reports that around 45 Indians died in a fire in an apartment in Kuwait.
Adevastating fire in a seven-storey building in Mangaf, Ahmadi Governorate, Kuwait, has claimed the lives of 49 foreign workers, including around 40 Indians, and injured 50 others. The blaze, which started in the kitchen, erupted around 4 a.m. on June 12 while most of the 195 migrant workers were asleep. The fire produced thick black smoke, leading to the suffocation of many victims, according to officials from the Kuwait Interior Ministry and the fire department.
Kerala Health Minister Veena George will urgently travel to Kuwait to coordinate efforts to assist the families of those who were killed and injured in the massive fire. After a special Cabinet meeting held this morning the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan-led government announced an ex gratia of ₹5 lakh for the families of the deceased and ₹1 lakh for those who were injured in the June 12 mishap in Kuwati’s city of Mangaf.
The news is from yesterday and says 40 Indians. However, the number has gone up to 45 Indians and three Filipinos as of today. Many of those died are Malayalees since people from Kerala form a big section of labourers and workers in the entire region.
The article does not say this but South Asians—from India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh—face immense racism in West Asia. You have exploitative conditions and little rights. Stories of passports being held back from the labourers, including domestic workers, so that they can’t escape. Plus, even white collar workers such as doctors or engineers are subject to racism (as per friends of friends from there).
That racism is rarely part of the global discussions on race, and I thought it should be pointed out.
Other than South Asians, East Asians and Africans form part of the labour force in Arab countries (and subject likewise to racism and terrible labour practices).
Pakistan
Persecution
Ahmadayas, a breakaway offshoot of Islam, is one of the most persecuted communities in Pakistan. They consider themselves Muslims but Pakistani state does not allow them to identify as such. Nabeel Anwar Dhakku reports for the Dawn: Three members of Ahmadya community detained under MPO in Chakwal
CHAKWAL: The district administration of Chakwal has put three leading members of Ahmadya community under one-month detention allegedly to prevent them from offering sacrifice of animals on the occasion of upcoming Eidul Azha.
Chakwal’s Deputy Commissioner Quratul Ain Malik issued three separate orders for the detention of the three men on June 10 and the police later arrested them and sent them to Jhelum prison.
All three men belong to Dulmial village which witnessed a mob attack on a worship place of the same community in December 2016 resulting in the death of two persons. The worship place, a historic mosque built in the middle of the 19th century, had been sealed by the local administration after the attack and its fate still hangs in balance.
DC Malik in her orders, copies of which are available with Dawn, has stated that she received a report from the district police officer in which the latter alleged that all the three men “may cause deterioration for law and order situation in the area” and requested for the issuance of their detention orders under Section 3 of the Maintenance of Public Order 1960.
Similar to how many Indian states jail Muslims on flimsy grounds, saying they are threat to public order and peace.
It is not just the religious minorities either. Imaan Zainab Mazari-Hazir, Islamabad-based lawyer and human rights activist, writes for Dissent Today: Pakistan’s Establishment Is Abducting Poets And Plumbers To Silence Dissent Oh!
Weeks after the recent protests against the rising prices of wheat and electricity in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, several people of Kashmiri origin in various parts of Pakistan have faced intimidation and threats, according to Kashmiri activists.
On May 15, at around 1 a.m., Kashmiri poet and journalist Ahmad Farhad was forcibly disappeared from his home in the Soan Gardens area of Islamabad. When the abductors returned to Farhad’s house to remove cameras and DVRs to cover up their crime, it became clear that intelligence agencies were behind this incident.
The state of Pakistan has made every effort to actively turn its people against it by forcibly disappearing them, extrajudicially killing them, and/or labeling them “terrorists” or “anti-state elements.” In doing so, the state has actively burdened Pakistan’s already overburdened criminal justice system with false and frivolous litigation against peaceful dissidents.
Apparently, Kashmiris in Pakistan and India are in the same boat.
Economic Troubles and Budget
The Dawn editorial analyses the budget that PM Shahbaz Sharif’s government has put forward.
PRIME MINISTER Shehbaz Sharif’s new budget for the next fiscal year has laid out some ambitious targets — in line with the demands of the IMF to help Pakistan strengthen its case for a larger and longer bailout so that it can anchor its newfound economic stability of the last one year.
Overall, the budget seeks to boost the government’s tax revenues by over 40pc to Rs12.97tr from a projected collection of Rs9.25tr during the outgoing year through significant tax measures.
The average annual increase in tax collection during the last five years has averaged around 20pc and is estimated to be 30pc this year. The additional tax measures of Rs2.2tr, equal to 1.8pc of GDP, seek to broaden the scope of consumption tax, significantly increase the existing personal tax burden on salaried and non-salaried individuals, do away with tax exemptions for various sectors of the economy, bring some untaxed incomes into the net, tighten the noose around non-filers, and boost the petroleum levy by Rs20 per litre to Rs80. The remaining increase of Rs1.5tr in tax revenues is expected to come from a nominal expansion in the economy due to a targeted inflation rate of 12pc and 3.6pc GDP growth.
The additional tax measures and the proposed increase in the petroleum levy will help raise the tax-to-GDP ratio for next year to an estimated 11.5pc of the size of the economy from this year’s estimated 9.6pc. Another major goal of the budget is to produce a primary surplus of 1pc of the size of the economy to hold down its fiscal deficit to 6.8pc for debt sustainability. The deficit would be further slashed to 5.9pc provided the provinces also throw up a surplus of Rs1.2tr as envisaged in the budget.
The dawn thinks these are not disruptive policies. That is, not radical enough.
Plus, they say that the proof would be in the enforcement. Oh and the government may be trying to raise money but they have not cut expenses enough, which as per the editorial, is not good. The budget may improve stability but will not attract the foreign investment needed to improve the economy.
Sri Lanka
Exploitation of Tamils
Meera Srinivasan reports for the Hindu about a tribunal’s finding on the condition of tea workers in Sri Lanka: ‘Horrified’ by plight of Sri Lanka’s plantation workers, says tribunal
An international tribunal of former judges from the region said it was “horrified by the stark realities” of the lives of Sri Lanka’s tea and rubber plantation workers, after hearing testimonies from workers and trade unions.
Hailing from the island nation’s Malaiyaha Tamil community, tens of thousands of workers are engaged in tea and rubber production. They earn vital foreign exchange for the country that is struggling to rebuild its economy after the dramatic meltdown of 2022. Last year, Sri Lanka’s revenue from tea exports totalled $1.3 billion, while rubber-based exports fetched $930 million, according to the Export Development Board.
However, the workers who toil in the country’s plantations continue to work and live in abysmal conditions. “It has shocked the conscience of the Tribunal that such practices could continue unabated in the modern civilised world,” members said in their findings, echoing concerns that trade unions, local activists, and UN experts have flagged in the past.
The judges included one from Nepal, one from India, and one from Sri Lanka.
Organised by Ceylon Workers Red Flag Union, a trade union based in the island’s central Kandy district, the Tribunal heard eleven workers employed in tea and rubber plantations across central and southern Sri Lanka, as well as three trade union representatives last week. Testifying before the tribunal — with Justice A.P. Shah from India, Justice P.K. Ojha from Nepal and Justice Shiranee Tilakawardane from Sri Lanka as its members — the workers, mostly women, shared the multiple challenges they encounter at work, such as the very demanding targets tied to their daily wage and the absence of basic sanitation facilities. Leech bites and wasp attacks are common, while medical care remains out of reach, more so amid soaring living costs following the country’s crisis. Speaking of her family being forced to ration meals to cut down expenses, a worker employed in tea plantations for over 20 years, said: “Let alone having three meals, I have not been able to afford a cup of tea with milk in years. If at all I can, it is plain tea once in a way.”
In his remarks at the conclusion of the hearing, Justice Shah noted: “they live practically a sub human life, and certainly do not have a life of dignity”.
The Sri Lankan President has increased the daily wage (even that is not enough for bare subsistence) but the workers don’t even get that limited amount.
On May 1, 2024, President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced an increase in the daily wage of plantation workers from LKR 1,000 to LKR 1,700 (roughly ₹468). Plantation companies vehemently opposed the move and petitioned Sri Lanka’s Court of Appeal, seeking an order invalidating the gazette on the wage hike. But the court refused to stay the gazette notification.
Workers, however, remain sceptical. From 2021, the workers have been entitled to a daily wage of LKR 1,000, but they rarely earn that amount. The targets introduced by employers are “unrealistic and impossible to meet”, according to workers.
A recent study led by University of Peradeniya Economist Prof. S. Vijesandiran estimated that the total monthly household expenditure for a tea estate worker’s family of four, as of April 2024, would be LKR 86,897.71 (roughly ₹ 23,913) for “a decent life in the context of the cost of living and inflation effect as of September 2022.” That would mean a worker must earn at least LKR 2,321.04 (around ₹ 638.71) a day.
Anyways, the Tribunal has asked Sri Lanka to “prohibit unfair practices” and ensure that the workers receive the minimum wages.
IMF Update
Zulfick Farzan reports for News 1st: IMF Commends Sri Lanka’s Debt Progress, Warns of Ongoing Vulnerabilities
COLOMBO (News 1st); The International Monetary Fund said that Sri Lanka has made substantive progress towards advancing debt restructuring to restore debt sustainability.
A swift finalization of the Memorandum of Understanding with the Official Creditor Committee and final agreements with the Export Import Bank of China remains- a priority, said Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the Press Briefing on Sri Lanka on Friday (14).
He said that it is also important to complete the restructuring with external private creditors consistent with program targets. IMF staff will continue to assist the authorities with creditor coordination in line with the IMF’s policies.
However, he warned that despite these positive developments, the economy is still vulnerable and the path to debt sustainability remains knife-edged.
Peter Breuer stressed that important vulnerabilities associated with the ongoing debt restructuring, revenue mobilization, reserve accumulation, and banks’ ability to support the recovery continue to cloud the outlook.
"The key to transitioning from stabilization to a full recovery is sustaining the reform momentum amid strong ownership by the authorities and the Sri Lankan people more broadly. We encourage the authorities to continue to build on these hard-won gains and remain steadfast on their reform commitments," he added.
AFP report published in the Hindu says that there are certain procedural issues to be sorted out before Sri Lankan debt deal.
Sri Lanka's planned foreign debt restructure after an unprecedented economic crisis has been delayed by "procedural issues" in negotiations with bilateral creditors including China, the International Monetary Fund said on June 14.
The Washington-based lender of last resort this week gave Sri Lanka the latest tranche of a rescue package designed to help repair the island nation's ruined finances after a 2022 government default.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe had originally promised the restructure would be finalised before the latest $336 million disbursal, but discussions with creditors have yet to yield a deal.
“There is agreement on the substance of the financial and legal terms,” IMF Sri Lanka mission chief Peter Breuer told reporters in Colombo. “It is procedural issues that need to be resolved, and we anticipate that this will happen very soon.”
Sri Lanka defaulted on its $46 billion external debt in April 2022 after the country ran out of foreign exchange to finance even essential imports such as food, fuel and medicine.
Colombo Telegraph continues to talk discuss postponing elections. However, I have seen no news yet that Sri Lankan government is serious about that, so we stop here since I already covered that last week.
Until next Friday, everyone. Stay safe. Be well. Take care.
May the tyrants fall and injustice recede.