The math is looking quite good for taking back the House of Representatives right now.
- We’ve gained one seat thanks to Rep. Tom Suozzi winning a special election a few months ago.
- This offsets losing a district thanks to redistricting. We’re gaining a seat in each of Alabama and Louisiana, but we are ceding three seats in North Carolina.
- We have strong challengers in the 16 seats that Biden carried in 2020 that still have Republican members of Congress.
- We also have some strong challengers in 14 swing seats that Trump won narrowly. These challengers have mostly been added to Red to Blue, which shows serious intent to win here.
Not everything comes up roses when it comes to the House, however. There are a few tricky open seats to defend across the nation, and there are at least 10 Democratic incumbents who will have a huge fight on their hands to stay in office. Below the fold, I list them in order of the chance of the seat flipping. My list is similar to the one generated by Daily Kos Elections, but it isn’t exactly the same.
But first, the best way to help protect all of these incumbents is to make a donation to the Save the Majority fund. It is more efficient, and the fund also gives you the option to say NO to giving the campaigns your contact information! No annoying spam!
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Here is the Save the Majority 2024 Fund on ActBlue! There are plenty of Democratic members of the House that are still vulnerable to being defeated. These 23 members need a boost! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #SaveTheMajority
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We have raised nearly $7.7k of the new $10k goal so far!
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1. WA-03: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
I agree with Daily Kos Elections that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is the most vulnerable incumbent we have to defend right now. She barely won her 2022 election in a mild shock to everyone not closely paying attention. While it is likely she will face the same opponent in 2024, she will also face an electorate that will pull the lever for Trump. Luckily, she is taking the race seriously and has raised plenty of funds to defend her record.
2. NC-01: Rep. Don Davis
Not only are we likely to lose three seats in North Carolina, but the redraw there imperils a fourth seat as well. Rep. Don Davis was already in a swing seat, but the mapmakers decided to give him a seat that Biden won 50-49 in 2020 and Cheri Beasley (our Senate candidate) lost in 2022. He will have to use all of his political skills to hang on to this district. Luckily for us, his fundraising picked up last quarter after being anemic before that.
3. OH-09: Rep. Marcy Kaptur
This is where Daily Kos Elections and I disagree. Their formula rates Rep. Marcy Kaptur 39th most likely to flip, but I rate her 3rd. The difference is that their formula is inflated by a huge overperformance in 2022 due to the worst candidate nominated by the GOP for this district. She hasn’t run a truly competitive race in 40 years, and she now sits in a district Trump won in 2020. Her fate will be tied to Sen. Sherrod Brown — is he wins the district she will too.
4. CO-08: Rep. Yadira Caraveo
Rep. Yadira Caraveo will have a fight on her hands even though the Colorado GOP is currently imploding. Biden barely carried the area covered by her district in 2020. Caraveo won with a plurality in 2022 in a race many thought would go the way of the GOP. This is what I call an orphan race — there’s no Senate race in the state, and the state is uncompetitive for the Presidential race as well. Caraveo will have to rely on the grassroots in order to win.
5. NM-02: Rep. Gabe Vasquez
Rep. Gabe Vasquez was able to flip this district narrowly in 2022 after Democrats in the Land of Enchantment drew a map to aid him in that endeavor. He faces a seasoned campaigner in former Rep. Yvette Herrell in a district Biden more comfortably won. However, if Latinos abandon the Democratic Party as polling suggests, this district would be ground zero for a flip. Vasquez is taking this race very seriously, and he won’t be easy to defeat.
6. PA-08: Rep. Matt Cartwright
Rep. Matt Cartwright is evidence that progressives can win even in districts that Trump narrowly carried in 2020. He’s been a survivor in an increasingly perilous district for Democrats for a few cycles now. His margins for error keep dropping though. If he weren’t on the House Appropriations Committee, he’d probably lose. Even so, any incumbent in a Trump-won district will always be at risk, and Cartwright is one of them.
7. PA-07: Rep. Susan Wild
Rep. Susan Wild sits in what could be one of the most critical swing seats in Pennsylvania — Biden barely carried this district along with the state in 2020. Wild first came to office in 2018 on the crest of the blue wave. She’s been a survivor ever since, usually winning with less than 52% of the vote. She’s facing an election denier this time, but that may not be a deterrent in Donald Trump wins this district in 2024.
8. AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola
Rep. Mary Peltola may sit in the district Trump won by the most in 2020, but she is uniquely a fit for the state of Alaska that she represents. However, that may not be enough in 2024 as the GOP is plotting to wrest away this seat now that Peltola has a record to attack. It also doesn’t help that she isn’t facing quitter Sarah Palin yet again. However, Peltola has amassed a small fortune to defend herself, which should help her navigate the Top 4 primary.
9. ME-02: Rep. Jared Golden
Rep. Jared Golden sits in a district that Trump won handily in 2020. He compensates by being the most moderate Democratic incumbent remaining in the House. Golden is sitting on quite a bit of campaign cash, and he’ll need it because his opponent is also raising a credible amount of money. The GOP would love to win a district in New England, which they haven’t done since the 2018 blue wave election.
10. OH-13: Rep. Emilia Sykes
It was tough to decide who was 10th, but I gave the nod to Rep. Emilia Sykes. Biden only narrowly carried the area covered by this district in 2020. Sykes actually overperformed that mark in 2022, but she faces a much tougher opponent this time around. Just like Rep. Marcy Kaptur above, Sykes will have to count on a strong showing from Sen. Sherrod Brown in order to ensure a chance at victory.
Now, it’s likely that only 1-2 of these incumbents will lose unless there is a massive backlash to the Democratic Party. Incumbents are very tough to dislodge! I’m actually more worried about 4 races that are open seats, as I will discuss in the comments section. I think we’re going to have to flip 8-10 seats overall in order to have a bare majority in the House.