Since September 2022, Ukraine has shut down more than three quarters of Russian combat drones.
Russian forces launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile and a Kh-59 cruise missile at southern Ukraine on the night of June 25 to 26.[78] Ukraine's Southern Military Command noted that the Kh-59 struck an empty area in Mykolaiv Oblast, while the Iskander-M struck administrative infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[79]
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report on June 26 detailing a significant increase in Russia's military equipment and weapons production in 2023. RUSI reported that it observed in February 2024 internal Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reports of 2023 defense industrial production that claim that Russia expects to manufacture 1.325 million 152mm artillery shells and 800,000 122mm artillery shells in 2024.[80] RUSI reported that Russia was able to produce 1 million 152mm artillery shells per year at the beginning of 2023 and only 250,000 152mm artillery shells per year at the beginning of 2022.[81] RUSI noted that the internal Russian MoD reports claim that Russia increased production of 122mm Grad multiple launch rockets systems (MLRS) ammunition from 33,000 rounds in 2023 to a planned 500,000 in 2024 and has increased production of Uragan MLRS ammunition from 2,800 rounds in 2023 to a planned 17,000 rounds in 2024.[82] The internal Russian MoD reports also reportedly claim that Russia was able to produce 420 Kh-101 cruise missiles per year by 2023 and tripled Iskander-M ballistic missile production in 2023, allowing Russian forces to accumulate 180 Iskander-M missiles in stocks by 2024.[83] RUSI reported that the Ukrainian intelligence community assessed in February 2024 that Russia and Iran were able to jointly produce over 250 Shahed-136 drones per month as compared to the initial monthly Iranian production of 40 drones before Iran began sending the drones to Russia.[84] The report states that Russia plans to produce 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored fighting vehicles in 2024, but RUSI noted that 85 percent of these vehicles are refurbished from storage instead of new production.[85] RUSI reported that production figures from Kurganmashzavod, a subsidiary of Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, claim that the armored vehicle producer increased BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle (IFVs) production from 100 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023 to 135 by the fourth quarter of 2023.[86] RUSI added that analysis of captured Russian armored vehicles shows that Russia is achieving increased production figures by producing lower quality equipment for some models.[87] RUSI cited commercially-obtained trade data that shows that Russia has relied on imports of nitrocellulose (an explosive precursor) from Germany, Turkey, Taiwan, and other countries to help support its increased production of weapons.[88] RUSI noted that the Russian MoD has previously assessed that Western sanctions have imposed a 30 percent price increase for critical microelectronic components used in military equipment and weapons.[89]
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- The likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23 have increased fears within the Russian information space about further attacks and instability in the North Caucasus.
- The June 23 terrorist attacks in Dagestan also prompted Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov to double down on his image as a ruthless autocratic strongman capable of protecting the North Caucasus from religious extremism.
- North Korea will reportedly send military construction and engineering forces to participate in "reconstruction work" in occupied Donetsk Oblast as early as July 2024.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia is not interested in any negotiations that do not result in Ukrainian territorial concessions beyond the parts of Ukraine Russian forces already occupy.
- New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used his first phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on June 26 to reiterate standard Russian threats meant to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of the wider Russian reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.
- Russia and Ukraine exchanged 90 prisoners of war (POWs) each in a one-to-one POW exchange on June 25 amid United Nations (UN) reports of Russia's continued abuse of POWs.
- Russia and Iran signed a memorandum on June 26 regarding the supply of Russian gas to Iran, following reported disagreements between Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the Russian supply of gas to the PRC.
- Ukraine’s pervasive shortage of critical air defense missiles is inhibiting Ukraine’s ability to protect its critical infrastructure against Russian strikes.
- Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk.
- Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report on June 26 detailing a significant increase in Russia's military equipment and weapons production in 2023.
Fighting continued in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 26, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Povkh and Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov noted that Ukrainian forces continue to "block" a small group of Russian troops in the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant amid continued reports of heavy close-combat fighting within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City).[42] Russian and Ukrainian forces reported fighting in and around Vovchansk, east of Vovchansk near Tykhe, and near Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv City) on June 25 and 26.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces launched 11 guided glide bombs at Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) in the afternoon of June 26.[44]
Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid continued Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 26. Geolocated footage published on June 25 shows elements of the Russian 25th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) advancing along a windbreak northeast of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[45] Russian milbloggers claimed on June 26 that Russian forces advanced up to one kilometer in the area northeast of Petropavlivka, relatively consistent with the available geolocated footage.[46] Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces entered eastern Stelmakhivka (northwest of Svatove), although ISW has not observed confirmation of these Russian claims.[47] Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; northwest of Svatove near Berestove, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Stelmakhivka; west of Svatove near Andriivka and Kopanky; northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka, Hrekivka, and Nevske; west of Kreminna near Torske and Terny; and south of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area on June 25 and 26.[48] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated on June 26 that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the area exclusively with squad-sized infantry groups without armored vehicle support.[49] The Ukrainian spokesperson added that these Russian squad-sized infantry groups attack one at a time but that a second squad-sized group will follow behind an initial assault group to potentially help secure captured positions.[50]
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Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid continued Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 26.
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