Love them or hate them The NYT Sienna Polls are considered one of the best, and they have a new one out conducted over the last week, so it’s current.
I have a few ideas on how to look at these numbers.
One is don’t pay too much attention to what they call the topline, who is up and who is down. Whoever it is, it will change, it’s all within the margin of error and battleground states determine who wins anyway. Don’t drive yourself nuts thinking the sky is falling.
Another thing I’d suggest is look at the issues. Very few people agree with their party on every issue, look to see where different demographics are on things of interest to you.
Lastly look at the crosstabs. It’s likely crosstabs have a greater margin for error as the size of the demographic is smaller but still they are fun to look at. I look at Black, Hispanic, and non college non white, a lot. I try to think about where they are headed and why.
There are results in there I found surprising, but then there always are. The electorate is more canny than I give them credit for.
Notice I link to the poll, not to the news article about the poll. Spin is the worst thing about polling, I see it all the time. People say this pollster said this or that, when really they didn’t, people are just quoting some scribbler who maybe knows less than them anyway. Read for yourself, make up your own mind. I’ll put a free link to articles down in comments somewhere or maybe someone else would care to do so. Past my bed time.
Link to the article about the poll here, maybe that will get you past the paywall.
The poll itself has no free link. I always assumed that without the link it was open to all.