The last time Ohio was a subject of a diary, i wrote “Winning is contagious.” Well, in some of the states where Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers are knocking on doors, competition is contagious, as well. Like Georgia, that’s true in Ohio. You know where i’m going with this: volunteer turnout was highest in Ohio last Saturday.
I mentioned earlier in the week that the Top 3 states in that regard where among the 5 states that pushed the hardest for setting the 10 Million Doors Knocked before Labor Day goal. Would have been really interesting if weather hadn’t effecting canvassing in Wisconsin and Arizona. But the message that i received this week was that our volunteers were dead serious in setting what might seem an insurmountable goal. “We will prove your wrong.” (It wasn’t a challenge.)
But last year’s two victories in Ohio has definitely pumped up some of our Ohio volunteers. And donors. Our thought is about retaining the Democratic majority in the Senate, but we have volunteers who are just generally interested in Democrats being competitive in the state. And they like that win under their belts.
In our first canvass in Ohio this year, 629 volunteers came out, flush with the success of 2023. 588 volunteers showed up last Saturday to knocked on doors in the competitive OH-01, OH-09 and OH-13 Congressional Districts. So fewer, but not as few as the weeks in between.
Prior to the maps being redrawn, Republicans had a 12-4 advantage. Ohio lost a seat in the last round of redistricting because of population changes, so Republicans now hold 10 of Ohio’s 15 seats, compared with five for Democrats. But two of the Democratic seats are expected to be in play in 2024.
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The Cook Political Report describes the 13th district and northwest Ohio’s 9th congressional district, where GOP Ohio Rep. Derek Merrin of Lucas County will face longtime Toledo Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur as “toss-ups” that could be won by either candidate. The 13th includes all of Summit County, northern Stark County and a sliver of Portage County. The 9th district includes all or parts of Erie, Sandusky, Ottawa, Wood, Lucas, Fulton, Williams and Defiance counties.
Cook also puts a third seat, Ohio’s 1st congressional district, where first-term Cincinnati Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman will face Republican Orlando Sonza, a Hamilton County assistant prosecutor, on its list of competitive races, though it deems that seat a more likely Democratic win. That district includes all of Cincinnati, its eastern Hamilton County suburbs and all of Warren County. Dave’s Redistricting App estimates Democrats have a slight, 2 percentage-point edge in the district.
That’s why we have targeted these congressional districts, even though our focus is on the Senate seat.
Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 42,806 doors on Saturday. They talked to 3,805 voters, and 2,424 voters answered questions from at least part of the Issues Survey (this actually was more than the first week’s canvass, but the weather is nicer). And weather does make a difference in regards to voters talking to you. I know that’s hard to believe!
(Rising) Prices and Inflation was the Number 1 issue for the Ohioans we talked to on Saturday. Education Concerns (?!) was the #2 issue voters raised. And Reproductive Freedom or Rights was third. “It doesn’t feel settled,” one voter exclaimed.
Still, i am reminded that 8 years ago, Ohio seemed very much a Trump yard sign extravaganza. One of the Clinton organizers had a mere 8 volunteers show up for their “final push” GOTV event. But 8 years is a very long time in politics. Especially after the end of Roe v Wade. Still, More money has been spent on reserving ad space for the Ohio Senate race this fall than for the presidential race, according to data from AdImpact.
Among the voters we talked to on Saturday Biden’s Job Approval was at 54%; 8% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 53% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Brown was doing while 8% expressed Disapproval. Sherrod Brown is considered key to the Senate Democratic majority. 33% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. DeWine was doing a good job, 34% said they disapproved of the job he was doing.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
Hope Springs volunteers registered 10 new voters and re-registered 54 voters who updated their addresses to comply with HAVA requirements. We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
In Ohio, we had 289 voters fill out Consti-tuent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican. (We also make Issues Surveys, Incident Reports and Constituent Service Request forms available at the churches we visit, but we don’t include numbers for those, in part because we don’t always get counts back, but also because we like to compare like to like.)
Front of Lit
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
2023 Hope Springs expenses
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change.
But here’s the reality: Identifying Single Issue Voters and Constitutional Amendment supporters and doing GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) costs more money than our regular canvassing because this issue drives volunteer turnout higher and higher. Which means we have to buy more lit to distribute and other minor expenses (like water for volunteers). So please:
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!