It’s been an interesting week. And a stressful one. But one thing that people should know is while all the debate over the debate has been happening, the Biden campaign has been meeting with people trying to figure a way out. Now, i would argue, meeting too much (i am not a fan of meetings or their length), but looking for a way out, nonetheless.
The way this effects Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers is that we are expanding into at least two more states (the request was for more), Minnesota and New Hampshire. And that’s an easy ask. I’ve worked both states extensively, the Obama alumni network there has members who still have their volunteer lists (although everyone says they are old, but) and, at least in Minnesota, i’ve maintained relationships with people i worked with, even if only on Facebook. Do we had something to work from.
If this surprises you, the Cook Political Report moved Minnesota and New Hampshire from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat in their Electoral College analysis recently. And we will start canvassing in Swing Districts in (increasingly) Swing States on Saturday.
In the two days that i had to work on this, 11 Obama alums stepped up to lead canvassing on Saturday in Minnesota and New Hampshire — probably more than we need for our first canvass. But i know i appreciate the help in cutting turf!
Our focus in Minnesota will be on MN-02, the swing district below St. Paul.
Both districts in New Hampshire are swing districts.
Now this isn’t exactly what we mean when we talk about expanding the map. We want to be expanding into more reddish states than blueish ones. But we are where we are.
I’m sure we’ve all seen the reports that “The Trump campaign is expanding its ground game in Minnesota.”
The memo, obtained exclusively by CBS News Friday, details that the campaign is in the process of securing leases for eight "Trump Force 47" offices in Minnesota, and 11 campaign offices in Virginia.
"Trump Force 47" is the nickname for the joint effort between the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee's grassroots volunteer canvassing program.
In addition to the offices, the campaign has hired new staff to manage its ground game in Virginia and Minnesota, and is building out teams.
“Donald Trump has fixated on the idea he can expand the map in a general election that’s likely to be decided in six swing states.”
Senior Trump advisers presented new polling data to top donors earlier this month, showing slide decks inside the Four Seasons Palm Beach that argued Minnesota and Virginia were the top two states where Trump could expand the map this November.
During the presentation, campaign advisers Chris LaCivita, Susie Wiles and pollster Tony Fabrizio flashed numbers on screen from another Trump pollster, John McLaughlin, showing President Joe Biden and Trump tied at 40 percent in Minnesota, and Biden up 3 percentage points in Virginia. Without independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an option, Trump was up 5 points in Minnesota and Biden up 1 point in Virginia, the advisers told donors.
The debate made that more real. At the doors, approval of Biden has cratered (except in Florida and Texas).
While Republican strength has grown across rural Minnesota in recent years, that’s been offset by Democratic strength in urban areas and the shift of suburban voters toward Democrats that accelerated after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade. While it’s true that no Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty was reelected governor, it’s also true that Democrats hold only narrow majorities in the Legislature, and the state’s congressional delegation is split 4-4.
Trump’s campaign hasn’t had a visible ground presence in Minnesota this cycle, while the Biden campaign has enlisted experienced operatives to lead the state effort. The president’s team in recent months also has sent several surrogates, including first lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff.
Biden should be able to leverage the well-oiled turnout and fundraising machine of the state Democratic Party, In contrast, the Minnesota GOP has struggled for years with debt, leadership turnover and factional disputes.
Once again, it is the swingy suburbs outside the Twin Cities that are going to make all the difference here.
New Hampshire doesn’t have a Senate race this cycle, but it does have two swingy Congressional Districts. It’s a little bit different, but i still remember my time in Berlin (where i stayed in a house that had a gorgeous view of Mt. Washington) in the 2004 presidential primaries. After i started writing this diary, the NYTimes (yes, i read things outside of the echo chamber — so OUTRAGE ALERT!) posted this:
But after Mr. Biden’s recent dismal debate performance, one poll of registered voters in the state found that former President Donald J. Trump had a slight lead. And the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, changed its outlook this week for the presidential race in the state from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
[...]
among voters inclined to waver, Mr. Biden’s vulnerability was apparent. His margin for error with some voters appears to be slim
I can’t speak to whether the campaign knew about these trends (or the stories) before this week, just that it was a very serious meeting with clear-eyed discussions about these states. Again, the NYT: “But the poll also showed the collapse of a 10-point lead that Mr. Biden enjoyed in December” in New Hampshire.
One other change: we have altered our Issues Survey for all (now) 14 states to include the vice president (this wasn’t requested by the campaign but some of our volunteers have mentioned it).
The main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the question-naire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
2023 Hope Springs expenses
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!