Dont overthink it. Obamas approval rating on election day exit polls was similar to GWB at 2006. Both ended in the same result for their parties. You cannot outrun the fundamentals. People are more likely to vote against the president's party than for some local candidate in mid terms.
It may feel worse than 2010 but it shouldnt. 2010 was atrocious because we lost senate seats in blue states. That did not happen last night. We lost senate seats in Red States. NC is a red state that is trending blue but even Obama didnt win it in 2012. Virginia was close, but we still won. EG ran probably the best campaign of any republican candidate btw. Meanwhile Warner was asleep at the wheel. But we still won.
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