Very important information about Coronavirus deaths coming out of Italy and Spain.
This is fascinating, and terrifying.
First acme a report out of Italy. Two physicists, including Claudio Cancelli Luca Foresti, the Mayor of Nembro, one of the hardest-hit towns in Italy, took a deep statistical dive into data about deaths, and here's what they found:
In normal times, looking at average death rates from January to March in previous years, 35 people would have died. Add the 31 reported Covid deaths, and they should be looking at approximately 70 deaths. Instead, there were 158 deaths. This huge spike, more than 3.6x the expected (subtracting out Covid), was too significant to be a statistical anomaly. Also, the additional undiagnosed deaths spiked in perfect harmony with the Covid deaths. The only possible explanation was that they, too, were Covid-related.
They then looked at neighboring towns and did the same analysis. They found the number of anomalous deaths (above average but not designated as Covid-related) ranged from 6.1X the Covid-related deaths all the way to 10.4X Civid-related deaths.
If they are right, the death rate far exceeds the death rates being reported, likely 4X or more.
Are they right?
Well, we don't know for sure, but there is strong evidence they are.
There's a newer report now, out of Spain.
On March 27th, Spain reported a total of 4,858 deaths from Covid-19. But that only included people who died after a positive test. The study also looked at the number of excess deaths, deaths above the expected based on averages.
In Castilla y León, between March 17 and March 24, they had 885 deaths, with 112 attributable to Covid. But the expected number was 500, meaning an additional 263 people died without a Covid diagnosis, in just the one week during the Covid spike. Absent a terrorist attack or mass shooting, there's just no other explanation than under-reported Covid deaths. That would be, by the say, a 50+% increase in deaths, and an under-reporting of more than 3X.
In two other regions, Castilla-La Mancha and the Comunidad de Madrid, from March 15 to March 24, and March 10 to March 16, respectively (based on first cases), there were 1198 more deaths than expected, with just 192 attributed to Covid.
So what does all this mean? It likely means two different things. First, deaths from Covid are grossly under-reported. If the US actually manages to keep deaths in the 100,00-240,000 range, the goalposts now being set by the Administration, it likely means we're really looking at half a million to a million dead Americans.
Go ahead, read that again. I'll wait.
But there's one other thing to consider. It is possible that some of those deaths aren't actually from Covid-19, but are related, because people can't get the care they would otherwise get due to the crisis.
Now let me lay one more bit of information on you, one that will blow your mind.
On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, an accidental self-enclosed Covid-19 laboratory, there was a 1% death rate. The same death rate was seen in South Korea, which had, by far, the most complete testing regimen.
Okay, ready? If we assume a 100% infection rate in Nembro and surrounding communities, it would perfectly match the actual death rates we're seeing.
Interestingly, this matches up with anecdotal information I've seen, talking to ER doctors, nurses, and hospital people. EVERYBODY is coming in with Covid-19, even those without symptoms. If somebody comes in from a car accident, or a gunshot, they're seeing Covid-19 lung infiltrate on imaging. That may not be why they're there, but they've got it. The disease is far more pervasive than we think, and far more deadly. The failure to test EVERYBODY is epidemiological malpractice on a national scale.
So what can we do?
STAY INSIDE!
FFS, JUST STAY INSIDE!
Don't play golf.
Don't get together with just a few close friends.
If you must get groceries, mask up and keep your distance, then come home and clean up. Not a quick hand wash. Take a damned shower before you say "hello" to the family. And take your own washable grocery bags and wash them after each trip.
It's not just your health, it's everybody's.
This is far more pervasive and far more deadly than we're being told, and it's just beginning.
Stay safe, everybody, and stay inside.
The studies:
www.corriere.it/…
elpais.com/...
