What’s happening right now behind closed doors? I’ll tell you what I think.
But first, why listen to me? Well, this is what I do. I teach negotiations to law students. I study negotiations, and I watch pretty closely with negotiations in mind.
I’ll tell you what I think, first, then I’ll tell you why. I think Biden offered Harris the AG position and she said “no,” holding out for the VP slot. In the meantime, I expect Biden is waiting for Super Tuesday to end, when he intends to offer the VP slot to Warren.
Why do I say this? First, negotiation power. Harris’s maximum negotiating power ended today, when she could endorse in California, and she didn’t spend it. That means she didn’t get what she wanted, and that means it wasn’t offered. She’s an incredibly easy call for AG and it wouldn’t have been any skin off Biden’s nose, so that wasn’t it. What’s left? The VP slot.
Harris in the VP slot is certainly attractive, for experience, for demographics. So why not offer it to her? Because somebody else has more to offer. Who has more to offer? It’s not Klobuchar. It’s Warren. If she gets out of the race, the question is, where do her votes go. The best answer is, with her. That means the negotiation competition is fighting over where Warren goes, if she can’t win.
But Warren isn’t ready to deal. Not until after tonight. If she over-performs she stays in the race. If she doesn’t, she will go with the likely candidate to win.
Because she’s not ready to deal, but she’s Biden’s (and Sanders’s) favorite get, Biden is willing to wait another day. He’s not willing to spend Harris’s price.
That’s my speculation, and it’s worth what you paid for it.