I’ve heard a lot of respectable people in the political realm (such as Nate Silver and the late Jack Kemp) compare a Presidential Election to a football game – The early Primaries are the first quarter, where only a real stroke of incompetence can end a general election before it starts. The later primaries are the end of the first half, where the strategies emerge and the tone for the rest of the contest is set. Pre-convention is the third quarter, where adjustments are made (i.e. appealing to the center) and some new players (VP picks) see field time.
The fourth quarter – the conventions and final eight weeks – is now in full swing, with all of the usual endgames unfolding. There’s Reagan running up the score on Mondale in ’84, Clinton keeping a calm, focused plan through a solid ’92 win, Bush with two controversial late wins in 2K and ’04. And most recently, Obama’s record-setting ground game in ’08 controlling the pace in the final minutes.
And this one? Let’s pick up the highlights at the start of the fourth quarter, with the Blue Team ahead by 3:
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