Need advice: Going in to vote undecided in Wisconsin

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Monday August 13, 2012 · 9:58 PM PDT

2012/08/13 · 21:58

In just a few short hours, I will be headed in to vote in the Wisconsin primary. Polls open at 7am, and due to other events, will vote early in the day. Here is my dilemma:

1. I can vote on the Democratic side of the ballot. I fully support all candidates, but they are running unopposed. Tammy Baldwin for US Senate, Pat Kreitlow for the 7th CD, and Dennis Halkoski for the 86th Assembly.

2. I can try to master the art of voting in the Republican primary. Assembly is easy, as Wayne Thorson has less political experience and is more beatable in November. I would leave the 7th CD blank as I won't vote for Sean Duffy. If I vote Republican, I have narrowed my choices to Mark Neumann and Eric Hovde. Tommy Thompson cannot make it through the primary. Jeff Fitzgerald does not have a chance. Who would we rather see Tammy Baldwin face in November?

No matter what, I will vote as always. Any late night thoughts on how best to strategically utilize my votes?

WI Assembly, Nov. 2012 Election

CentralWIGuy

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Saturday June 16, 2012 · 7:40 PM PDT

2012/06/16 · 19:40

Back in January I put together a prediction for the November 2012 General Election for the Wisconsin Assembly: January 2012 Predictions

Now that the nomination window closed about 2 weeks ago, I have taken the time to examine who has filed to run and reassess the 99 races. Predictions were made based in part on data from DRA and candidate website information. Feel free to offer suggestions. A list of candidates can be found on the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board website. Updates from January are in bold.

54 Seats are likely to be held by Republicans:
Current R districts that are safe or likely R districts: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 14, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 93, 97, 98, 99. (41 districts)
Current D districts that are safe or likely R districts: 13, 15, 22, 37, 42, 61, 62. (7 districts)
Current R districts that COULD be in play: 50, 68, 69, 75, 93, 96. (6 districts)

38 Seats are likely to be held by Democrats:
Current D districts that are safe or likely D districts: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 46, 48, 54, 57, 64, 65, 71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 85, 91, 92, 94, 95. (31 districts)
Current R districts that are safe or likely D districts: 44, 45, 47, 51, 66, 86, 90. (7 districts)
Current D districts that COULD be in play: none (0 districts)

That leaves a total of 7 districts that are "in play":
Current R districts that ARE in play: 35, 43, 49, 72, 88. (5 districts)
Current I who acts like an R that is in play: 25. (1 district)
Current D districts that ARE in play: 70. (1 district)

Clearly, these SEVEN seats are the ones Democrats will need to focus on to move toward providing a more balanced Assembly. For being a rather 50/50 state on a lot of matters over time, this analysis clearly shows how redistricting in the hands of a select group of people in one party can skew the balance of power in government.

Once again, here is a link to the Assembly maps, both current map and the one to be used in this year's November election: Wisconsin Assembly and Senate Maps

Details on each of the 99 Assembly seats are below. Again, feel free to offer suggestions. There are probably you know that I don't or possibly errors made below.

CentralWIGuy

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Sunday January 01, 2012 · 5:24 PM PST

2012/01/01 · 17:24

Analysis of the super-gerrymandered (hacked up or carefully carved) districts and predictions to November of this year. If the new districts hold up in court, this is my take on things. Many districts have packed a high concentration of Democrats along with creating a good number of luke-warm Republican districts that are just out of reach for Democrats most of the time. I used DRA as much as I could to get '08 and '10 numbers and a look back at the last five elections in terms of which party has held the seat to base my predictions. Of course, retirements of legislators, some legislators needing to move to serve their own district (or new legislators found), dynamic candidates coming forward, and current events in WI could flip some of the districts due to turnout in November.

Here is a link to the Assembly maps, both current map and the one to be used in this year's November election: Wisconsin Assembly and Senate Maps

I used actual seat/district numbers here. Some districts shifted or are totally renumbered (ie, Eau Claire area, Madison area, and Racine/Kenosha area).

CentralWIGuy

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Friday December 23, 2011 · 8:30 PM PST

2011/12/23 · 20:30

Wisconsin's population growth does not keep up with the growth as a nation, and thus will likely once again lose another Congressional district by mid-century. Here, I show how 7 districts could be created using 2010 data (of course, demographics will shift by 2030, 2040, or 2050).

CentralWIGuy

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Thursday July 14, 2011 · 3:47 PM PDT

2011/07/14 · 15:47

I am working on some potential, more Democratic-friendly, congressional maps for states that don't seem to be making the news. Now some of these states are so Republican heavy, districts like this will never happen. However, they would be possible. This is a first in a series.

CentralWIGuy

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Tuesday July 12, 2011 · 9:07 PM PDT

2011/07/12 · 21:07

I was wondering.... is there a way to get the GOP what they are looking for (essentially, protecting Duffy) with a map that does not appear so gerrymandered. Here is my take on this:

CentralWIGuy

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday June 25, 2011 · 8:33 PM PDT

2011/06/25 · 20:33

This is my take at a Wisconsin Senate/Assembly map with a focus on Senate districts with compact and generally regular borders. It was not my intention to put a partisan advantage to the Democrats. My process was first to map all CURRENT 33 Senators and create a district around their homes. (It is too complicated to count in the recall candidates into this.) In particular, this was important for Senators in odd-numbered Senate districts as they are not up for a regular election until 2014. I did not take the current shape of the Senate district (or the Assembly Representatives within each district) into account when drawing the 33 Senate seats. Population size of each Senate Districts fall well-within-statutory limits, and population of each Assembly district is within what is statutorily allowed. In many cases, the same (current) 3 Assembly Representatives fall within their current Senate districts, but in a handful of cases this didn’t happen. In some cases, such as the SD-17, Assembly districts are mixed around. For instance, the general area covered under current AD-49, 51, and 96 are within the new SD-17. The vast majority all 99 new Assembly districts have one incumbent, but some have two and others ended up with none.

Here is the overall map, and a SE Wisconsin closeup:

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