NBC/ESQUIRE Poll: Two Observations

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Wednesday October 16, 2013 · 11:43 AM PDT

2013/10/16 · 11:43

RE: NBC/ESQUIRE poll NBC/ESQUIRE Poll about the 'New American Center' in politics. It claims that 51% of citizens fall in the middle of the spectrum.

I've come away with a couple of observations that haven't been mentioned that much. Several posts on KOS have already shown that most of us fall in the Bleeding Heart category according to this survey. This brings me to my first observation....

1. The 51% result is very misleading. Just like surveys that show that 30% to 40% of Americans consider themselves to be Independents, election results on a national level do not bear this out. I have long held that there is a "40%" rule - about 40% of the country is going to vote for Democrats and a like number will vote GOP no matter who the candidates are. Save for landslides or strong 3rd party candidate years, that leaves only about 20% of the electorate that is truly up for grabs. This Esquire survey does little to convince me otherwise. Their so-called "Mini-Van Mods" and "Pickup Populists" are going to largely vote Democratic and Republican, respectively. They might say they are indies, but their votes are pretty predictable. Perhaps, because of the mess in Washington caused by the Tea Party there may be more and more folks so genuinely fed up that my 40% rule is more like a 35% rule, but, I don't believe this survey's results that more than half of the country is genuinely in the "middle".

2. The most troubling result - and the one which should concern DailyKos readers worry - is that 21% of the electorate are solidly liberal (Bleeding Hearts + Gospel Left) VS. 28% who are considered rock solid conservatives (Righteous Right + Talk Radio Heads). That 7% difference may not seem like much at first glance, but that SEVEN percent make up much of the hardcore who turn up in Off-Year and non-Big Ticket races. That 7% will show up for a city Dog-Catcher election if an animal control candidate announces he is supported by the NRA! It's a huge problem for Democrats. It helps explain how the House is still in GOP hands despite Obama's two solid national victories. It goes a long way towards the reason that there are 30 GOP governors, as well as how Republicans hold a 28-17 (with 5 split) advantage in State Legislatures. Bottom Line: Democrats have to do a much better job of getting out the vote in non-Presidential years and all the races 'down-ballot'

The full NBC/ESQUIRE results are here: Full NBC/ESQUIRE survey results

NATE SILVER @Espn - Reasons to be worried

JoeS

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Sunday July 21, 2013 · 12:55 PM PDT

2013/07/21 · 12:55

Politico has a detailed story about Nate Silver's move to ESPN/ABC: Silver to Espn

More power to Silver, although it's a blow to the NY Times.

Still, there's reason to worry:

1. As others have noted, ESPN is a sports outfit that has been burned by 'Politics' in the past (witness the messy relationships with Rush Limbaugh and Dennis Miller). While ABC news is part of the umbrella, it could cause the right wing to go nuts if Silver makes too much news on the political front while also appearing on sports broadcasts

2. Silver does have a background in baseball stats, but, athletics is still different from polling. The human factor, including just plain good/bad luck, has more impact in the sports world than analyzing polls. A few wayward predictions (such as first picking the Patriots and Seahawks would be in the Super Bowl - neither were - and then picking the 49ers to beat the Ravens - nope!) will color some folks' perception of his political skills, and make him easier to dismiss.

3. The Oscars. I am a hardcore Academy Awards prediction shark myself. Nate Silver has been bad, and occassionally, laughably bad, prognosticator of these golden statues in the past. Hollywood is not a numbers game. You can't divine insight from knowing which film won Best Sound Editing in 1983 and expect it to project for the winner next year. You actually have to see the movies and, more importantly, know how Hollywood works and thinks. Again, foolish picks in an area out of one's expertise could tarnish Silver's rep.

In the end, I wish Nate Silver well. He was certainly a voice of reason during this past political campaign (and in years prior). But, I also caution him not to spread himself too thin.

Gallup's 4 Reasons they screwed up in 2012

JoeS

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Wednesday June 05, 2013 · 1:02 PM PDT

2013/06/05 · 13:02

The long-awaited report by Gallup on how they botched their polling in the Presidential election cycle of 2012 came out yesterday: Gallup's 2012 Report

There's a lot of detail in the report, but, overall, there really isn't much new in it that dedicated followers of polling didn't already know including here on Kos including posts such as: Daily Kos/Greg Dworkin and my own diaries during last fall's cyle.

My take after the squiggle, but, here are the four basic 'Explanations' per Gallup:

Gallup’s likely voter estimating. Gallup’s likely voter procedures in 2012 shifted the race four points in Romney’s favor; one point more in Romney’s favor than the average shift among other polls for which registered voter and likely voter information is available.

Gallup’s regional controls on interviews. Gallup attempts to ensure geographical representation of the U.S. population in its national samples by requiring a minimum number of completed interviews by census region, and through weighting by region. However, interviewing factors can influence the percentage of completed interviews obtained in geographic units within each region. As a result, completed interviews by time zone within a region can be disproportionate, even if a region is appropriately represented. At times during the pre-election polling period, this led Gallup to underrepresent the Eastern time zone within the Midwestern and Southern regions, and the Pacific time zone within the Western region.

The way in which Gallup asked about and weighted race and ethnicity. In its pre-election polling, Gallup collected race and ethnicity information from respondents, using a series of forced-choice yes/no questions for each of several race and ethnicity categories, which resulted in a disproportionate number of respondents reporting they were multiracial and American Indian/Alaska Native.

The use of a listed landline instead of an RDD list-assisted landline sample frame. Gallup’s experimental research in the spring of 2013 showed that on an unweighted basis, the listed landline sample in use in 2012 consisted of older and more Republican respondents than the RDD list-assisted landline sample. The listed landline and cellphone sample frames also underrepresented dual cellphone and landline users whose landline was unlisted, which required significantly more weighting of respondents interviewed on cellphones.

JoeS

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Thursday May 23, 2013 · 5:50 PM PDT

2013/05/23 · 17:50

Gallup has announced a June 4th release date for a report of how they so royally screwed up their 2012 election polls, particularly on the Presidential level.

Along with the likes of right wing pollsters Rasmussen, and the utterly cockamamie Unscewed Polls, Gallup was the only mainstream polling firm which showed Romney in the lead for almost all the 2012 election cycle. Even up to election day, Republicans (and indeed, Mitt Romney himself) grasped at Gallup's faulty polling methods to hold up hope that ALL THE OTHER major polling firms were wrong, and that Mitt was actually ahead and destined for the White House.

Gallup will release report June 4th on 2012 election mess-up

It'll be interesting reading, although one should keep in mind that this is the THIRD Presidential cycle in a row where Gallup has been pretty far off the mark. Hard to have much confidence that they really have learned any lessons.

Romney still doesn't get it

JoeS

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Sunday March 03, 2013 · 5:05 PM PST

2013/03/03 · 17:05

Kind of lost in his, "It kills me not to be there, not to be in the White House doing what needs to be done," belly-aching is Mitt Romney's clearly unavoidable failure to grasp the sum and substance of his "47%" remark: "You know, when you speak in private, uh, you don’t spend as much time thinking about how something could be twisted and distorted and...and it could come out wrong and be used....What I said is not what I believe."

In short, he still doesn't get it!

Ann Romney is also still buying Faux News' the media was against Mitt rationale: "I believe it was the media’s fault as well, is that he was not giving — being given a fair shake, that people weren’t allowed to really see him for who he was...I’m happy to blame the media."

In short, SHE still doesn't get it!

The Romney's failure to grasp reality is still best exemplified by the fact that it really seems true that they thought they were going to win until "8pm" on election night despite all the polls and early election returns and exit polling. Really? All that data and you didn't even draft a concession speech and were still planning for fireworks during that evening? (Romney planned Election "Victory" fireworks)

To think that someone so removed from reality still believes that he didn't really mean what he said about the 47% despite doubling down shortly after the election (Romney says Obama won by giving "gifts") is pretty frightening. Almost as frightening as Romney putting himself up as the best man to fix the nation's problems.

Elections DO matter!

2012 Polling accuracy recap - the polls are alright (Huffpo)

JoeS

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Sunday December 23, 2012 · 9:05 AM PST

2012/12/23 · 09:05

The Huffington Post has an interesting piece by Mark Blumenthal about how the major polling firms did this year: Mark Blumenthal HuffPo article on polling The National Council on Public Polls released their report this week. Here is their basic conclusion:

"Generally speaking, the national and state polls this year did okay," NCPP president Evans Witt told The Huffington Post, though "they didn't come quite as close to matching the election results as they had, for example, in 2008."
The average error for final week estimates of support for each candidate as calculated by NCPP was slightly higher in national polls this year (1.4 percentage points) than in 2008 (0.9), 2004 (0.9) or 2000 (1.1), but was lower than in 1996 (2.1), 1984 (2.4) or 1980 (3.1).

The article goes on discuss the details, but my takeaway below the squiggle. Read More

Obama's Pollster takes on Gallup

JoeS

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Friday November 16, 2012 · 5:58 PM PST

2012/11/16 · 17:58

In an interview with Politico, President Obama's pollster Joel Benenson rips Gallup for it's up and down polling this cycle: obama's pollster takes on Gallup

Benenson makes a few very salient points in the piece:

“I think it’s long overdue for an organization with a name as well-known as Gallup to recognize what the demographics of the American electorate actually are and figure out why their model has continued to skew too old, too white and less likely to be college educated than the nation’s voters,” Benenson said.

“The American electorate does not bounce around as if it's on a pogo stick,” Benenson said. “If you look at the exit polls, 70 percent of voters had made up their mind before September... Mitt Romney would have had to have a phenomenal two months ... he would have had to won that 30 percent of voters, to make up a five point difference, by 17 points.”

-- This is something I've noted myself concerning the big white elephant that Gallup has become. I've used the same phrase "big white elephant" myself in describing Gallup in posts on Daily Kos! I wonder if Mr.Benenson is a visitor to the site?

Below the squiggle are links to three of my diaries about Gallup from the end of this campaign. One thing Benenson doesn't mention is that Gallup's REGISTERED voters polls have been more accurate than their more widely cited LIKELY voters polls the last 3 election cycles. This just bolsters Benenson's argument that Gallup has to adapt and update.

JoeS

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Thursday November 15, 2012 · 5:32 PM PST

2012/11/15 · 17:32

If the Right Wingers in Texas (and other Southern states) want to secede - let 'em! In fact, we should HELP out and sign their petitions!

Just think. If Texas secedes, the Electoral College would now be based on 500 electoral votes - not 538. That means a Democratic candidate would only need 251 EV's to win!

Common wisdom now holds that a generic Democratic candidate begins with a solid "base" of 201 EV (see list below squiggle). Add in three states with 46 EV that strongly lean Blue in Presidential elections (Pennsylvania (20),Wisconsin (10), Michigan(16)) and you are at 247 Electoral Votes! That would be just 4 electoral votes shy of winning!

And, the above tally does NOT include Seven more states that Obama won TWICE! And, any ONE of those 7 automatically puts you over the top in the new non-Texas Electoral College.

So, SECEDE, Texas, Secede!

All us Daily Kos readers will happily assist in relocating any Texas progressive expatriots!

Note: This is a satire, tongue in cheek. I apologize to any who took offense. Still, like all decent satire, I was making a few points. First, to show how powerful the Electoral College is FOR Democrats and how daunting it is for the GOP. If the secessionists in Texas have their way, I showed that the map would become a virtual lock overnight. Without Texas' 38 electoral votes, the Democratic presidential candidate would have to win only ONE swing state (even NH and its 4 EV's). Second, nobody on the left is seriously pushing to force Texas out of the union. All that movement is on the right. More importantly, that movement isn't just fringe. Elected officials like Gov.Perry and Rep./Prez Candidate Ron Paul (just yesterday I might add) have played footsie with those forces. And, don't forget Texas Judge Tom Head who warned of an armed civil war if Obama were re-elected.
I hope the post is taken in that context.

JoeS

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Tuesday November 13, 2012 · 2:33 PM PST

2012/11/13 · 14:33

There were a few mea culpas by Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls in the wake of their humiliating "prediction record" on election night. See: Unskewed polls guy admits he was wrong

So, you'd think Mr. Chambers would either go away, or, try and reform his ways.

Fat chance.

Today, I decided to look myself at the website. Here are the top headlines:

"Was this election stolen by massive Democrat vote fraud?"
"We're riding that Long Black Train to economic oblivion" (Long Black Train is highlighted in Bold Black Letters - I'm not kidding!)
"A mandate for the food stamps president"

But, there's also a Post Election Survey. Take a look at the main question after the squiggle.

JoeS

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Thursday November 08, 2012 · 11:01 AM PST

2012/11/08 · 11:01

Doing a little rounding magic, this election proved who the Poster Boy for the 47% this election year was - MITT ROMNEY!

To wit Romney's vote total in the following states:

Colorado - 47%
Iowa - 47%
Nevada - 47%
New Hampshire - 47%
Pennsylvania - 47%
Virginia - 47%
Wisconsin - 47%

Amazingly, ALL of the above states were amongst the most contested "swing states", and Romney didn't hit 48% in ANY of them. And, in the biggie, Ohio? 48.2%!

One final stat. The Gender Gap. Wanna know what percent of the vote were cast by Romney's strong suit (MEN)? 47%

And, Romney is, with a bit of rounding magic, at just about 47% in the NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE to boot - ain't irony a b!tch?!

GALLUP wrong 3 times in a row but with an *

JoeS

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Wednesday November 07, 2012 · 1:52 PM PST

2012/11/07 · 13:52

As I noted in a diary a few days back (Gallup Chickens out calls it a Tie), Gallup's Registered Voter (RV) polls had been more accurate than their Likely Voter (LV) polls in 2008 and 2010.

Now, make that THREE Election cycles in a row! As we all know, their final LV poll showed Romney at +1%. Less known is that their RV poll showed Obama +3%.

That means Gallup skewed their own poll +4 to Romney! Little surprise that their polling throughout the cycle skewed towards Romney.

Whomever is their LV screen captain should be fired - oh, about 11:20pm EST last night when the election was called for Obama! Seriously, how do you screw up three times in succession like that?

Election Day final polls - Obama will win

JoeS

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Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 8:42 AM PST

2012/11/06 · 08:42

The Final Election polls have trickled in this morning. They don't fundamentally change the race which indicates a narrow, but steady and decisive Obama victory. Ras and Gallup remain the only pollsters predicting a Romney Popular Vote victory with only 1% leads to boot.

Looks like the final Real Clear Politics Average will have Obama +0.7%. Other Polling Averages out there show Obama's lead between 1% to 2%.

Latest poll numbers after the squiggle.

GOTV!

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NBC/ESQUIRE Poll: Two Observations

NATE SILVER @Espn - Reasons to be worried

Gallup's 4 Reasons they screwed up in 2012

Gallup watch: June 4th will explain 2012 screw-up

Romney still doesn't get it

2012 Polling accuracy recap - the polls are alright (Huffpo)

Obama's Pollster takes on Gallup

Let's HELP Texas secede. Electoral College Lock GUARANTEED for Dems!

UNSKEWED polls back to skewing

The real Mr.47% - Mitt Romney

GALLUP wrong 3 times in a row but with an *

Election Day final polls - Obama will win