The current Congressional map, enacted at the end of 2011 after the tiebreaker chose the GOP proposal.
New Jersey goes into 2021 with 12 Congressional districts and is certain to stay there, growing by 5.7% per the 2020 Census results. South Jersey’s growth is stagnant or worse, save for the 6-7% growth in Ocean County. In North Jersey, though, the growth is decent with the highly-populated counties of Hudson, Union, Bergen, and Essex all growing by more than ~2% since 2010. Rural New Jersey really took a beating though with Salem, Warren, Hunterdon, Sussex, Cape May, and Cumberland County falling by at least 3% since 2010.
What this will mean is that non-Ocean County Congressional districts in the South will have to expand northwards. Potentially, this could make NJ-02 (held by a D-to-R turncoat who was out of his depth when he finally made the move to US Congress from the State Senate) redder by forcing it more into Ocean County, but there’s another way about doing this. Although New Jersey has nearly full Democratic control (with the NJ Supreme Court, already headed by a Democratic Chief Justice, coming soon as R-appointed Indie Justice Jaynee Lavecchia is resigning at the end of August), New Jersey has had a bipartisan redistricting commission since the 1990s. This was set up on a provisional basis in 1991 for redistricting that year and was adopted by referendum into the state constitution in 1995. How this commission works is that each party’s top-ranked state legislative members choose 6 members each. Those members then try to choose a 13th member to serve as the tiebreaker. When that fails, it goes to the NJ Supreme Court who and selects the ultimate tiebreaker from the recommendations provided by each side. That looks to happen by August 10th.
The redistricting commission would normally be underway right now, but between the delayed detailed 2020 Census results and the passed 2020 Public Question to delay the process, that’s on ice for now. It won’t stop me from trying with what Dave’s Redistricting App has been able to glean.
The status quo Congressional map was the Republican final map proposed to the tiebreaker in late 2011. It cut out a Democratic district and did what it could to nudge all R-held districts (except the 5th) away from Democrats. I posted the map at the top of the diary. Here are its statistics:
2013-2023 Congressional Map Statistics
This map began 2013 with a 6D-6R split, a coup for Republicans in a blue state. It took four more years for the map to begin to leak when Democrats defeated the odious Rep. Scott Garrett in 2016. In 2018, however, it turned into a deluge as the map shifted to an astounding 11D-1R split. This held for a year until Jeff Van Drew did the cowardly thing and switched sides after his successors in NJ Legislative District 1 all went down in 2019 and he was handling the impeachment politics with all the finesse of a novice. Here’s how it stands now:
Congressional District Representation (2021)
| District |
Congressmember |
Home |
Party |
2020 Results |
|
01
|
Donald Norcross |
Camden |
D |
62.5-37.5 |
| 02 |
Jeff Van Drew |
Dennis Township |
R |
51.9-46.2 |
| 03 |
Andy Kim |
Bordentown |
D |
53.2-45.5
|
| 04 |
Chris Smith |
Hamilton Township |
R |
59.9-38.3
|
| 05 |
Josh Gottheimer |
Wyckoff |
D |
53.2-45.6 |
| 06 |
Frank Pallone |
Long Branch |
D |
61.2-38.8 |
| 07 |
Tom Malinowski |
Ringoes |
D |
50.6-49.4 |
| 08 |
Albio Sires |
West New York |
D |
74.0-24.6 |
| 09 |
Bill Pascrell |
PAterson |
D |
65.8-31.9 |
| 10 |
Donald PAyne, Jr. |
Newark |
D |
83.3-13.9 |
| 11 |
Mikie Sherrill |
Montclair |
D |
53.3-46.7 |
| 12 |
Bonnie Watson Coleman |
Ewing Township |
D |
65.6-32.6 |
Now it should also be noted that Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) only narrowly won re-election against State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R) in 2020. Furthermore, Malinowski has an ethics issue against him as he broke the STOCK Act on reporting stock trades. The preservation of NJ-07 as a D-held district will have to be something Democrats on the commission need to figure.
In formulating my proposed new map, I had to make certain concessions. The new map should not be less compact than the old one, it should fix some of the R-favored tricks put in the last decade, and not be offensive to a tiebreaker. Although the tiebreaker has to have not held partisan office in several years and must be an Independent, it’s obvious that leanings still play a role regardless and is why Democrats should hope their choice is selected. That said, the tiebreaker will want to do a whole production on the importance of fairness and competitiveness where possible. It also goes without saying that New Jersey should retain its majority-African American district (NJ-10) and its Hispanic-majority district (NJ-08). I think my map (named NJ Final Map Mk2) satisfies those conditions:
My Proposed Map
2012-2018 Partisan Stats and Demographics (VAP) for NJ Final Map Mk2
North Jersey
Zoom in on Hudson and Essex County
As you can see, NJ-02 becomes a little bluer by dropping its share of Ocean County and tiny scraps of Burlington and Camden County. It stays a solid target district as a result.
In this proposal, NJ-04 is reimagined as an Ocean and Monmouth County district, taking in all of Ocean County. An argument could be made that Ocean County’s interests (retirees and vacation homeowners) are not being adequately represented while being split three ways as it is now. Since it's the fastest-growing county, it ought to have a more unified voice. The result is an unreachable district for Democrats. Rep. Chris Smith (R-Hamilton), however, lives in Hamilton Township (just south and southeast of Trenton) when he’s not living in his Virginia home most of the year. Now, one need not live in the district to represent it, but nothing could stop him from buying a new home in NJ-04 and making that his official address. Failing that, however, he could retire or run for re-election in NJ-03 (which draws in his old turf and a fillet of Monmouth County together with most of Burlington County) against Rep. Andy Kim (D-Bordentown). That would be the hardest election he’s faced in 40 years easily. The new NJ-03 is also over 5% bluer than the current one.
NJ-06 changes little, but this may be a gamble. Since Andy Kim and Chris Smith were drawn together in a bluer district, what’s stopping Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) from also being cut off from much of Middlesex County? That is a logical argument to be made against this map.
NJ-12 adds all of Hunterdon County, taking in Rep. Tom Malinowski’s (D-07) new home of Ringoes. However, he could just relocate to his previous hometown of Rocky Hill (Somerset County), which is still in NJ-07. NJ-07 gains more of Union County (including dark blue Plainfield) and becomes 7% bluer as a result. Malinowski (or someone of high caliber running in his stead if his ethics issues get worse or are woefully unresolved) can feel more comfortable here. The change makes NJ-12 6% redder, but still very blue. Since it wasn’t majority-nonwhite under the status quo, NJ-12’s change here cannot be argued against on the basis of retrogression. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township) just needs to perform outreach to the white liberals that live in the new turf. This includes Lambertville (a very lovely town across the river from New Hope, PA), Stockton, and Frenchtown.
NJ-11 changes little, losing some of the redder parts of Passaic County, but takes in less of Essex County and all of Warren County. It also trades less-red parts of western Morris County in NJ-07 with the more-red southern parts. The resulting district is a point bluer. Rep. Mikie Sherill (D-Montclair) should be fine here, but she needs to not lose Warren County by too much. However, this district can and should definitely flip in a solid R year. That should be a selling point to the tiebreaker. The same is true with NJ-05 to the north. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) loses Warren County for some more of Bergen County, moving over a point to the left. This should also help insulate the financial sector-friendly Gottheimer from a primary challenge.
NJ-09 changes little as well, only getting a couple of points redder by gaining a bit of redder Passaic County and losing a bit of lower Bergen County. Nothing much to say.
NJ-08 and NJ-10 are where we finish. NJ-10 is only very narrowly an African American-majority district as NJ-07 took up most of its Union County turf and is also several points redder as a result of that and taking in red northwest Essex County. The total population of NJ-10 is also majority-African American, so it should not fall under the mark over the next several years. NJ-08 changes to become majority-Hispanic by Voting Age Population (currently it’s only majority-Hispanic by total population) by cutting many precincts with NJ-10, including letting NJ-10 take the African American-heavy stretch of Elizabeth. This could be a good thing to sell the tiebreaker, making it majority-Hispanic by VAP.
There you have it. In a Dem wave year, this map could go 11D-1R. However, in an R year, it could range from 9D-3R to 6D-6R. It’s more Dem-friendly than the status quo map, that’s for sure, but the light blue districts aren’t unwinnable for Republicans.
Before I finish, I would like to offer an alternative map I made recently. I call it NJ Fallback:
NJ Fallback Whole State
NJ Fallback Statistics
NJ Fallback North Jersey
NJ Fallback Hudson and Essex County Zoom-In
Not a whole lot of change. NJ-07 gains Warren County from NJ-11 (compared to NJ Final Map Mk2) and the two are now equal in terms of partisan makeup. NJ-08 and NJ-10 are also less messily drawn and NJ-10 is 51% African American-majority while NJ-08 remains majority-Hispanic by the total population (but not by VAP). NJ-05 gets a tick bluer thanks to getting more of eastern Bergen County. NJ-03 becomes a percent less blue than in NJ Final Map Mk2 by losing a bit of Mercer County and losing the pale red Freehold area in Monmouth County. Chris Smith’s odds are less daunting here.
I compared the two maps in the software in terms of redistricting statistics and here were the results:
Map Rating Overlay
NJ Fallback is virtually identical to NJ Final Map Mk2, but is 6 points more competitive and 5 points more proportional than NJ Final Map Mk2. This was at the modest cost of 3 points in the splitting score.
That’s it for my first diary in 7.5 years. I hope I wasn’t too rusty.
Please tell me which you prefer in the poll and in the comments.
