Rand Tracker: The 47% are Deciding the Election

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Friday October 26, 2012 · 6:56 AM PDT

2012/10/26 · 06:56

A diary about the RAND Tracking poll is currently at the top of the rec list. Over the course of a few days, Obama has gone from a two-point spread to a six-point spread. Every day, Rand also posts a demographic breakdown by a chosen characteristic that varies from day to day. Today they are focusing on household income. You can see the charts here. [If somebody can tell me how to embed, I will].

While preferences have been relatively steady among individuals in households with $50,000 a year or higher, the "bumps" have largely come from the under $50k respondents.

They were almost exclusively responsible for the "47%" bump -- the story broke on 9/17. By 9/26, Romney support in this group has plummeted to 36%, with Obama being about 20-points higher.

Over the next few weeks, perhaps due to reversion to the mean, and assisted by the re-emergence of Moderate Mitt (unchallenged by the President in round 1 of the debates), the spread has shrunk to 11 points, hitting a minimum on 10/19. In the five days since--probably reflecting the full effects of debate 2, and helped along by debate 3, the spread is once again near 20%.

Internals are "noisy", as pundits will tell us, but the 50,000 and under group is about half of the country, and hopefully, at least half of the sample, which would mean about 1500 people. [You can see that the noise in this group is much lower than in the $50-$75k group]. Also, the true "panel" design -- querying the same people vs. new samples everyday, as other trackers do, reduces the noise considerably. In fact, despite its quirky design in other areas, I would argue that the RAND experiment is hands-down the best source for tracking these trends.

The low income group will include disadvantaged minorities and young people, so its hard to conclude that this is strictly an income effect. But the good new is that, yes, people do know how to vote according to their economic interests.

The bad news: We all know lower income voters are the least likely to show up at the polls. Early voting and the ground game are still critical for a decisive win this year.

Akin: Ties to Domestic Terrorist and Donation to His Congressional Campaign

RickinStLouis

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Thursday October 25, 2012 · 2:07 PM PDT

2012/10/25 · 14:07

Militia chaplain and former congressional candidate Tim Dreste's campaign brought in only $2,325, but about 9% was given by Todd Akin.

Salon has the full story, and the image that proves the 1993 donation.

1993 was the year of the murder of Dr. David Gunn. That year, Dreste carried signs that implicitly threatened an abortion provider "...Do you feel under the Gunn"?

Dreste was one of the leading anti-abortion radicals of the 90s, and a member of the 1st Missouri Volunteers militia. He was convicted for threatening abortion doctors in 1999.

The donation record is another piece in a series of articles that tie Akin to Dreste. Akin has been trying to deny any connection, bu Tuesday Salon reported on a 2000 St. Louis Post-Dispatch article that found a letter from Akin written to the militia (in lieu of a personal appearance)

“The local militia can bring a positive influence to our community…. Your patriotism and concern for our state and nation is to be commended"

In August of this year, however, Akin told Laura Ingraham “I didn’t know who they were, I didn’t want to have anything to do with them,”

See the two Salon articles and their sources for more details. Just wanted to help this story get legs.

No, Obama Isn't losing the South by 22

RickinStLouis

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Wednesday October 17, 2012 · 12:02 PM PDT

2012/10/17 · 12:02

Kudos to Markos and others for pointing out the heavy "skew" introduced into the Gallup numbers by Romney's ridiculously high lead in the South. It raises a strong possibility of a Romney popular victory and an Obama EV victory.

But there is one problem: The states where Romney is likely to lead by very high margins (e.g., Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama) aren't that big (populous). And there are big southern states where the margins are likely to be much closer. So, if proper weight is given to those states, its hard to imagine a scenario where there is a 22 point margin.

I don't know exactly which states Gallup considers "South", so I did a quick "worst case scenario" calculation using the following states: AL, AZ, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NM, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV.

FL, NC and VA are obviously competitive, and they are 3 of the 5 largest states listed above (TX and GA are the other two).

Lets assume a 5% margin for Romney in those 3 states.

New Mexico is lean-D, so assume a tie.

Texas and Arizona seem likely to be single-digit, or near single-digit states (large Hispanic populations), but assume a whopping 15-point margin for Romney.

For the remainder, assume either (a) a 2.5-fold larger margin than 2008 or (b) a 30-point blowout, whichever is smaller. Except for OK and UT, where margins were over 30 in 2008, assume a 40-point margin.

Multiply by the voting population in 2008 and get your worst case scenario: Romney wins the "south" by 15.

I hate to be in the business of "unskewing" polls, but this seems to be a problem. It does call Gallup's geographic weighting into question. For instance, when weighting for geography, is a OK voter the same as a FL or NC voter?

Just a quick Excel calculation. Let me know what you think -- especially if you know something about election polling.

I'll save my worksheet and modify numbers if people give me additional info (e.g., which states are in Gallup's "south").

Tommy Thompson' son: "We have an opportunity to send President Obama back. . . to Kenya"

RickinStLouis

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Sunday October 14, 2012 · 4:14 PM PDT

2012/10/14 · 16:14

Not much to add. At a brunch this a.m., with ~~the elder Thompson~~ RNC chair Reince Preibus in attendance, Jason Thompson speechifies that “we have the opportunity to send President Obama back to Chicago — or Kenya.”

Via Buzzfeed.

Video below. ~~No comment from the (oh-so-reasonable and moderate) Thompson.~~ Reince Preibus was in the audience as well.

Update: Thanks for the rec list. Not much of a diary, but I have little to add aside from outrage, frustration and assorted other unproductive emotional responses. One thing I can do is add the link to Tammy Baldwin's ActBlue page.

Update 2: Important correction. Tommy Thompson was not in attendance (but Preibus was). Younger Thompson has apologized through the Thompson campaign. A luke-warmish apology in my opinion: “The Governor has addressed this with his son, just like any father would do. Jason Thompson said something he should not have, and he apologizes.” Tommy Thompson was not in attendance at the event."

Breaking: Today Romney Bragged About Being "Grandfather of Obamacare"

RickinStLouis

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Wednesday September 19, 2012 · 4:35 PM PDT

2012/09/19 · 16:35

Update: Just hours ago -- from U of Miami. An online Univision form.

Talk about shakin' the old etch-a-sketch. Sorry I don't have the context for this clip, just caught it on Buzzfeed via twitter.

"And I have experience in health care reform. Now and then, the president says I'm the grandfather of Obamacare. I don't think he meant that as a compliment but I'll take it."

Wow. I'm not so sure your base will find it to be a compliment either.

Shockingly:

"This was during the primary. We thought it might not be helpful."

I guess now he's running on Romneycare? 'Cos maybe it would be more helpful?

Goes on to say that he's "proud of the fact" that 100% of children and 98% of adults are covered. It's almost as though healthcare were some sort of right, or, whats the word? Entitlement?

He then tries to make a case for for "state specific solutions". Still an amazing difference in tone from the Randianism he's been embracing the last few days.

It looks like it was on Univision, so I'm guessing its part of the "Hispanic outreach" (or retroactively trying to make himself Latino).

Video less than an hour old as I am posting. If you know where and to whom he was ~~whoring~~ ~~pandering~~ speaking, let me know and I'll update.

Bloomberg TV Fact Checks Clinton "Not One Claim...was patently false"

RickinStLouis

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Thursday September 06, 2012 · 9:45 AM PDT

2012/09/06 · 09:45

See, AP....its really not that hard. Megan Hughes illustrates how easy it is to check facts, especially when they are presented as facts, for example, numbers and statistics -- as opposed to motivations and intentions.

Sorry for the short diary. I could expand on the exercise we did in 5th grade differentiating statements of fact and statements of opinion, but my guess is most folks here get that.

Bloomberg embed doesn't work, so here is the link

May want to share it on your facebook page, or e-mail it to your great uncle....

House Republicans No Longer Pretending to Hope for Economic Recovery

RickinStLouis

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Wednesday July 18, 2012 · 11:17 AM PDT

2012/07/18 · 11:17

I don’t pretend to understand monetary policy, and I don’t have an opinion one way or another on Ben Bernanke or previous Fed chairmen, but this caught my eye.

I have a miniscule amount of money in the stock market, and so I know the market pays close attention to Bernanke’s words. And—it seems to like what he has had say recently about the Fed being prepared to take action to stimulate economic growth should it the economy continue to recover slowly (or stagnate, or decline).

This of course, would be disastrous for Republicans as it might actually result in an increased probability of the president being re-elected.

From the NYT—in response to Bernanke:

“The truth is, the Federal Reserve cannot rescue Americans from the consequences of failed economic and regulatory policies passed by Congress and signed by the president,” the committee chairman, Representative Spencer Bachus of Alabama, said in his opening statement. [Emphasis added]

So….because we had a miniscule Keynesian stimulus, we have to suffer economically, so that right-wing prophecy can be self-fulfilled.

And any problems with the US economy are the fault of the stimulus, and the failure to further deregulate. Nothing to do with global conditions, etc.

Other Republicans cautioned that an expansion of the Fed’s existing efforts could deepen the nation’s financial challenges by postponing a necessary reckoning and eventually accelerating the pace of inflation.

Ahhh yes, inflation. The worst enemy of the 1%. The rest of us have to face a “reckoning” so that inflation doesn’t devalue their billions into, well, slightly fewer billions.

Just a quick diary—I’ve never seen individual representatives quite so craven in their desire for continued economic pain. These people are true sociopaths.

I was a homobphobic bully

RickinStLouis

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Thursday May 10, 2012 · 9:45 AM PDT

2012/05/10 · 09:45

I'm not attributing that statement to Mitt Romney. I'm saying it about myself. About the things I said, and did, 30 years ago.

In fact, I was a racist too. Even though I felt opposed to racism from my earliest says, I grew up in an all white town, where racial slurs and racist jokes were used shamelessly in casual conversation. As a pre-teen or teenager, I didn't even see the contradiction between my inner thoughts and my participation in these conversations.

I probably did some things worse than what Mitt Romney did. I helped tip a student council election against a kid who may have been gay, based on the fact that it was rumored that he was gay.

But, if its not obvious by my participation in a site like this, I not only regret my early-life attitudes and and actions: I am deeply ashamed of them.

Yes, I lived in a homophobic era, in a small, backward, all-white town. But I'm still responsible for the things I said and did even as teenager, and I'd give anything to have them undone.

See -- its not hard to say this in public. Maybe it would be a little harder if i was a well-known public fiigure, and I wasn't quasi-anonymous (my first name and location are in my username). But still, i'd rather people know that I did stupid--actually mean-- things and grew up than say things as lame as this:

“Back in high school, I did some dumb things and if anybody was hurt by that or offended, obviously I apologize for that,” Romney said in a live radio interview with Fox News Channel personality Brian Kilmeade. Romney added: “I participated in a lot of hijinks and pranks during high school and some might have gone too far and for that, I apologize.”

He goes on to say that he's "deeply sorry" about any incident that he may or may not have remembered or may or may not have occurred. Not to give free campaign advice to Mr. Romney, but here's what he could have said:

You know, I don't remember that particular incident, but I'm certainly not proud of everything I did in high school. In fact, like most teenagers, I was an insecure kid. I wanted to fit in. And sometimes that led to picking on others who were less popular and less well liked. Looking back, I'm terribly sorry for those occasions

Even something as tepid as that would have made Romney look semi-human. He could have come out against bullying, and appeared to empathize with young people.

Which is all the more reason why President Obama's statement yesterday was not only the right ting to do, it was pure political genius. He's not going to get a tidal wave of votes from pro-equality fence-sitters. And he may lose a few votes among social conservative swing voters. He'll even take some heat for "evolving" and changing his position. But the truth is, he changed from a position of ambigutiy to one of clarity. And here's the bottom line: President Obama looks like a leader. Romney looks like the polar opposite.

Updated: Walesa plans to visit #OWS (?)

RickinStLouis

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Thursday October 13, 2011 · 6:16 PM PDT

2011/10/13 · 18:16

(Note : See updated below -- sources aren't saying a time has been planned, but a couple sources say he does plan to go. Just don't want to over-hype, but I still think its a pretty big deal).

I confess that I wasn’t initially enthused or hopeful about the Occupy Wall Street protests. I’ve never been a big protest fan – part of my issue is that when people protest on a regular and predictable basis, the one’s that occur during times we really need them – like NOW – don’t get the attention they deserve.

The profile gets raised somewhat by people like Michael Moore, and Cornel West and Susan Sarandon, but let’s face it – these are the ‘usual suspects’ when it comes to progressive causes.

It was only after the police started getting violent that my sympathies for the movement became heightened. And I’ve been glad to see the labor movement get involved and widen the interest among the 99%.

But this is huge

As pointed out on the front page , former Polish President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Lech Walesa will be flying to New York in support of the protests.

Maybe it’s the superfluous consonants in my last name, but I can’t imagine a more perfect representative of real, peaceful and lasting change than Walesa.

Better yet, right wing heads will explode. Along with Blessed John Paul II, and St. Ronald Magnus, they see Walesa as one of the key figures in the fall of communism.

Of course, we all know that unlike their lazy, welfare state old-Europe counterparts, new Europe loves themselves some free markets and recognizes the evils of socialism right?

A former shipyard worker who led Poland's successful revolt against Soviet communism, Walesa said "capitalism is in crisis" and not just in America.
"This is a worldwide problem," he told the Lublin-based Dziennik Wschodni newspaper. "The Wall Street protesters have focused a magnifying glass on the problem."

Now, I suppose he’ll be labeled a socialist union thug who hates freedom and markets. And a godless hippe to boot. And a Democratic partisan sympathizer.

I don’t know what will happen with the attempted shut down tomorrow, but I can’t imagine a better international voice for this movement.

I don't have much else to add. This just strikes me as a major development.

Update: The NY Daily News was the only source I could find that says he will be there. Many sources confirm his support. Another source repeats the NY Daily News story, but says the time of his visit is "unknown". Any additional info is appreciated -- I will update when I get a chance.

6:58 PM PT: Update again: Warsaw Biz Journal confirms he will visit, but again says he "has not specified when he intends to fly to the US"

Updated again: Changed headline. He clearly has spoken out in favor of the protests, which is news in and of itself. There seem to be at least a few independent reports of his intent to visit, bit w/o a specific date. Some of these are non-English language sources, so I can't compare reports. Thanks for the recs.

Atheists vs. Believers: It’s exactly what they want.

RickinStLouis

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Wednesday May 11, 2011 · 9:09 PM PDT

2011/05/11 · 21:09

Another day, another pie fight. Actually, last I checked in on the highly-rec’d diary that has spent most of the day on the wreck-list, it wasn’t much of a pie fight. It was mostly atheists, agnostics and sympathizers vocalizing, with some justification, just how much they’ve been discriminated against – that they are the victims of bigotry. It is true, as claimed in the diary that “American’s don’t like atheists”. Then again, American’s have a long history of not liking somebody-or-another – but more on that later.

In the meantime, there were plenty of comments to make the converse argument – that atheists have considerable bias against their believing counterparts. To much applause, religion was compared to a penis). An excellent comment about the disdain shown toward religion by numerous dkos atheists was retorted with the comment "Cry Baby"

Attention: 1% of the U.S. controls 40% of the wealth. If you are not part of that 1%, YOU are a victim of BIGOTRY and DISCRIMINATION. It doesn’t matter if you believe in Jesus, Moses, Bieber, FSM, or the ghost of Carl Sagan. It doesn’t matter if you are a college professor or a bricklayer or a McDonald’s worker.

The vast majority of bigotry – though not excusable – is grounded in the innate human fear that somebody else has more than their fair share of power. That’s why they tell us that gays are getting “special rights”, that Whites are subjected to “reverse discrimination”, that union-members and teachers are “greedy”, that intellectuals have a "socialist-secular agenda". And of course, hippies vs. soldiers . Whether such confrontations really happened or are urban legend, rest assured, the Kochs of the world will be there to pour gasoline on the fire, and make sure that the enmity persists.

Of course, they don't need to tell us that the uneducated, or southern Whites, or Midwesterners are bigoted rednecks. We're too busy saying that to ourselves and each other.

So yeah, your run-in-the-mill storefront Baptist preacher stands a better chance of getting elected to the local school board than does the typical member of the Ethical Society, or the Unitarian Church for that matter. It just ain’t fair, is it?!

The day I visit this site and see a volume diaries devoted to organizing against and discussing the real enemy -- in proportion to the amount of wealth held by the elites -- That's the day I’ll believe the progressive movement stands a chance in hell of being born again (puns intended). On that we day can proclaim:

Those who speaks evil of our brothers and sisters day and night have been cast out.

(Paraphrase, Revelations 12:10)

The devil is the one who sows the seeds of division. On that point, I’m a biblical literalist.

Prop 8 Backers Admit Conflict of Interest

RickinStLouis

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Monday April 25, 2011 · 7:27 PM PDT

2011/04/25 · 19:27

Not directly, of course.

But their new contention is that Republican appointee, Judge Vaughn Walker's relationship status may have biased his judgement. As widely believed at the trial, Judge Walker is a gay man. Not that there's anything wrong with that -- at least according to "Protect Marriage"

Lawyers for Protect Marriage, the coalition of religious and conservative groups that sponsored Proposition 8, however, have not previously raised his sexual orientation as a legal issue.

RickinStLouis

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Wednesday April 06, 2011 · 11:36 AM PDT

2011/04/06 · 11:36

Source: ABC News

(Madison, WI) Heeding the clear message sent by the voters in Wisconsin, Governor Walker today warned Republicans in the State House and Senate today not to “jam” through a budget repair bill now that they have lost their commanding majority on the state Supreme Court. The Governor also said that the anger and frustration that led to his victory just 5 months ago carried Kloppenburg into office last night.

"Here's my assessment of not just the vote in Madison, but the mood around the state: the same thing that swept JoAnne Kloppenberg into office swept me into office," the Governor said in an exclusive interview with George Stephanopoulos. "People are angry and they are frustrated. Unemployment is still sky high, and people see the safety net being torn apart. It’s not about what has happened in just the last four months, but, but what's happened over the last ten years."

A conciliatory Walker also admitted that he has been too focused on crafting right-wing policy, and that he had lost touch with the people of Wisconsin.

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