It IS Rational to be Irrational
The game of chicken is an irrational game. One version of it is, two guys drive their cars head on towards each other at break neck speeds. The first one to swerve to avoid a collision loses. This game is so irrational, only insane would play it. But if this game is actually played, and if one player knows that the other player is a wee bit more rational than he is, a tad less insane, without two or may be three molecules more common sense, what is the best course of action? He has break his steering wheel, while the other is watching and throw it away. “I can’t swerve even if I want to, your move buster...”
Irrational, out of proportion over reaction is also based on similar logic. In India “communal tension” would routinely flare up, some affront, real or imagined, would spark a riot, shops would get looted and buses would get vandalized... couple of days of total chaos, millions (or crores in Indian parlance) of rupees lost… It makes no sense at all. But, from game theory, we learn that this is basically John McEnroe throwing a temper tantrum disputing a line judge. The aim is the maneuver for psychological advantage in the next confrontation. The community (caste based, linguistic or religious) would be treated with kid gloves for the next few years, and they will get away with slightly more than usual of their share of whatever they want till it grates the others, till the next one flares up. I see this dynamics play out a lot in the Middle East, I think that also follows similar principles.
In American politics too, irrationality has become just another, warning, pun ahead, trump card. The Republican party started behaving more and more irrationally, especially after 2008 elections. Democrats played, or forced to play, the role of grown ups. “OK, I see you have thrown away the steering wheel, you couldn’t swerve even if you wanted to, so to as to avoid defaulting on the national debt the only rational thing to do is to give in to your irrational demands… I see...”.
Trump nomination. Having reaped the benefits of playing the insane against the Democrats, the Republicans kept rewarding, or were forced to, or were resigned to, their insane wing. Now the wing of the Republican party that still has some common sense and some rationality left, is confronted with the highly empowered insane wing of their own party. The Ryans and McCains are coming around and are trying to give in to the demands of the insane wing. This is how, I explain the nomination of Donald Trump by the Republican party.
Sentience of Group behavior. I am not suggesting all this happened according to some script some plan someone created. Game theory shows that dynamic interaction in a large group of individual actors, all acting according to their own motivations and strategies, would appear to be intelligent and intentional. The individual actors (snails, pitcher plants, ants, animals, companies, parties, linguistic groups, castes, religious sects, political parties) might not even understand the group behavior that would result from their individual behavior. Some might not even have the capacity to realize. Others might realize it and still were forced to ride the tiger, like some of the banks in 2008 mortgage based derivatives crisis, or the less insane wing of the Republican party in 2016.
So, what next? Going forward, how to deal with Trumpism, I don’t know. People far smarter than me, I am looking at you Nate Silver, have failed to predict it right. But Warren is getting some traction in the tweet war, and Trump is actually going to be attacked, on his core pillars of support. “I am self funding”, “I believe him, he is telling it like it is”. These are coming under attack. It would erode his support. He might collapse. Or he might bring Ohio, PA and FL into play forcing Team Blue to play defense there. He is irrational and his supporters are too. So can’t tell what would happen. Just getting scared, that is all...