Minnesota Senate hPVI, 2013 edition

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Monday July 08, 2013 · 12:01 PM PDT

2013/07/08 · 12:01

As readers of DailyKos Elections, you are no doubt familiar with PVI. For the last few years I have been doing a version of PVI for Minnesota Legislative districts that I very creatively call hPVI, which stands for hybrid Partisan Voting Index.

It's a hybrid because rather than using the results of the last two Presidential elections, as PVI does, hPVI uses the results of the last Presidential election and the last Gubernatorial election. This makes the data not only more localized, but more fresher.

The original version of this post appeared on LeftMN, and was preceded by an intro post, that you may or may not find relevant.

In the graph below each bar represents a Senate district, the height of the bar representing the hPVI of the district, districts on the left side of the graph are Republican leaning and districts on the right side are Democratic leaning. The color of the bar represents the party that currently occupies the seat.

TonyAngelo

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Thursday June 13, 2013 · 9:28 AM PDT

2013/06/13 · 09:28

There are four teams in Major League Baseball and the National Football League that still use Native American themed names and imagery for their team identities; the Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians and Washington Redskins.

While they all have their own specific problems (Chief Wahoo immediately comes to mind), one of them stands out from the rest as being particularly egregious. That would be the one that describes its subject by skin color, something generally frowned upon these days.

TonyAngelo

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Friday August 10, 2012 · 3:22 PM PDT

2012/08/10 · 15:22

With the Minnesota Primary fast approaching on Tuesday, here's a rundown of the competitive races.

This content originally appeared on LeftMN as three separate posts; congressional preview, state senate preview and state house preview. In the interest of not clogging up the diary sidebar, those three posts have been condensed into this one single post.

Also, I have a Minnesota Primary Prediction contest going, stop by and submit your guesses for a chance to win a coveted LeftMN tshirt.

TonyAngelo

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Wednesday November 23, 2011 · 5:54 AM PST

2011/11/23 · 05:54

Redistricting Minnesota Friday of last week was the deadline for parties in Minnesota's redistricting lawsuit to submit their maps. Three groups submitted maps; the Britton, Hippert (GOP) and Martin (DFL) intervenors. On Monday I went over the partisan composition of the three maps and yesterday I went over the five metro area districts. Today I'm going to discuss the way the three outstate districts were drawn.

Before I get into the maps I'll once again recap the partisan numbers with this nifty color coded excel table.

ave Dem% diff

This is a table of the differences in the average Democratic vote %, color coded so that the districts that get the most Republican are redder and the ones that get the most Democratic are bluer.

With that, on to the last of the maps!

TonyAngelo

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Tuesday November 22, 2011 · 11:42 AM PST

2011/11/22 · 11:42

Redistricting Minnesota Yesterday I posted the partisan numbers of the proposed districts, today I'm going to look at the districts themselves, starting today in the metro and going outstate tomorrow.

Before I get into that I just wanted to recap the numbers from yesterday in the form of a color coded excel table!

TonyAngelo

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Monday November 21, 2011 · 5:39 AM PST

2011/11/21 · 05:39

Redistricting Minnesota I tried to resist the urge to break this up into multiple posts and instead just do one big post comparing all the proposals. That post quickly grew to unmanageable proportions though, so I'm going to go ahead and break it up anyway.

So, today I'm going to go over the partisan numbers of the proposed districts and tomorrow I'll start breaking down the districts themselves.

The three proposals are from the Britton, Hippert (GOP) and Martin (DFL) intervenors. The Hippert map is old news, as it is the same map that passed through the GOP controlled legislature earlier this year and was vetoed by Governor Dayton. The two other maps are interesting in their similarities and their differences; drawing rural Minnesota almost exactly the same but taking completely different approaches in the metro area.

TonyAngelo

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Wednesday October 26, 2011 · 7:07 AM PDT

2011/10/26 · 07:07

Redistricting Minnesota On Friday, the Citizens’ Redistricting Commission, a group brought together by Draw the Line Minnesota, submitted it's maps to the Special Redistricting Panel. Here's a statement for the group's chair, Candi Walz:

We’re taking advantage of this opportunity to share what we heard with the judicial panel and to ensure Minnesotans who attended our meetings have their voice heard. We heard from hundreds of Minnesotans that want our state’s Congressional and legislative districts drawn to reflect the lives and needs of our citizens and communities, rather partisan interests of any kind, and that’s what this report aims to communicate.

TonyAngelo

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Saturday June 25, 2011 · 6:41 AM PDT

2011/06/25 · 06:41

Cross posted from MNProgressiveProject

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us This is the second part of a post I started two weeks ago going over what I think will be the most likely outcome of the now court lead redistricting process. The first part went over past court precedent and some different Twin Cities district options.

As always, these maps are drawn using Dave's Redistricting App, a free and easy to use redistricting tool.

This was the final version of the Twin Cities that I arrived at in the previous post:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

TonyAngelo

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Friday October 15, 2010 · 7:12 AM PDT

2010/10/15 · 07:12

Cross-posted from Minnesota Progressive Project

SurveyUSA (10/14, likely voters, 9/15 in parentheses):

Mark Dayton (D): 42 (38)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)
Tom Horner (I): 14 (18)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is confirmation of where the current average has the race, although there are a few things about the poll itself worth pointing out.

TonyAngelo

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Wednesday October 13, 2010 · 11:31 AM PDT

2010/10/13 · 11:31

Cross-posted from Minnesota Progressive Project

While history suggests that the Independence Party candidate in Minnesota tends to have success at the expense of the DFL candidate, there is reason think this year might be different. Part of that has to do with Tom Horner and part of that has to do with other factors, like the relative positions of the candidates on the liberal/conservative spectrum.

This is the second part of a three part series on what effect we can expect Tom Horner to have on the Minnesota Gubernatorial election. In this installment I'm going to look at how the 2010 election is different from past Minnesota elections. Part one of the series was a look at those past Minnesota elections and part three will take a look at what the polling shows is actually happening.

With that then, here is Part 2...

TonyAngelo

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Monday October 11, 2010 · 7:29 AM PDT

2010/10/11 · 07:29

Cross-posted from Minnesota Progressive Project

While Minnesota has a rich history of third party successes, the recent era began in 1998 with the election of Jesse Ventura as Governor. Since then there have been two additional statewide elections in which the Independence Party candidate received a significant share of the vote, Tim Penny in the 2002 Governors race and Dean Barkley in the 2008 Senate race. This year certainly looks like it will be another as Tom Horner is over 16% in the current GPI.

This is the first part of a three part series on what effect we can expect Tom Horner to have on the Minnesota Gubernatorial election. In this installment I'm going to look at past statewide elections and the effect the Independence Party candidate had. Part two will attempt to show why 2010 is different than these past elections and part three will take a look at what the current polling shows is happening.

With that then, here is Part 1...

TonyAngelo

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Friday October 08, 2010 · 1:05 PM PDT

2010/10/08 · 13:05

Cross-posted from Minnesota Progressive Project

Rasmussen (10/6, likely voters, 9/22 in parentheses):

Mark Dayton (D): 40 (34)
Tom Emmer (R): 38 (36)
Tom Horner (I): 15 (18)
Undecided: 5 (2)
(MoE: ±4%)

A few things change with this update of the GPI, the first of which is something truly radical, standardizing the way I format new poll results. I put a lot of thought into what the most effective way to do it would be and after careful deliberation I decided to crib Swing State Project's poll formatting style, so if it looks familiar you know who to blame.

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