I was severely depressed about last night’s outcome until I remembered a few things that made me feel a little better. I hope this helps to pick up someone else’s mood a little, too.
If we look at the history of Donald Trump, it is pretty safe to say he has failed at nearly everything he ever attempted to do, with the exception of those things he promised and never even tried to do. For most Presidents, that kind of resume would not be a positive thing, but when it comes to the crazy shit Donald says he wants to accomplish, that is good news. This is also a man with an attention span shorter than a grade-schooler. To think that he is going to take the time to create detailed policy or legislation is silly. He won’t even be able to sit through a presentation of something his advisers prepared. And, based upon his campaign, we have no indication that he is capable of setting-up a staff or cabinet with anyone on it who is the least bit capable of functioning in a government setting (Steve Bannon), and/or avoiding indictment (Chris Christie).
Even though the Republicans control the Senate and the House, there are several features of that control that are worth noting: One, the Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof majority. While it’s true that Mitch McConnell (assuming he is re-elected as Majority Leader), could get rid of the filibuster, I don’t think he will. Ole Mitch tends to plan his moves for the long term, and giving up the filibuster, especially when Trump is bound to be so unpopular with at least half the country that the Senate could be flipped in either 2018 or 2020, would greatly diminish the Republicans’ power should they find themselves in the Minority again. So, I think he will keep it, and the Democrats, if they have learned anything from the opposition in the last eight years (and they have the gonads), can obstruct, obstruct, obstruct. (And for some of Trump’s nuttier ideas I’m sure the Republicans would be glad to have the Democrats obstruct them, a la “Don’t throw me in that brier patch, brer rabbit.”) As far as Trump’s SCOTUS nominees, all the Democrats have to do is quote Mitch and Chuck Grassley about the nominees needing to reflect the will of the people via an election and point out that Trump did not get the most votes, Hillary did. It’s as good a basis for obstruction as any the Republicans used.
The Republican Party is basically two factions — The KKK/Tea Party/”Freedom” Caucus and the Corporatists. We often say that Republicans spent so much of their time obstructing Obama, they never had time for the creation of a policy agenda, and while that’s true, even if they had, it would have been almost impossible to get it passed within their own caucus. (The only way Boehner got anything done was to get Nancy Pelosi to send him some Democratic votes; Ryan hasn’t done that and has gotten zero through the House.) Now, without an opposition in the White House to paper over differences, (and to act as a backstop for any crazy KKK/TP policies that the Corporatists were willing to try to pass when they knew Obama would veto it), the two factions are likely to be at each others’ throats most of the time, with the Corporatists horrified at the KKK/TP’s propensity to burn down the things that are most important to their corporate masters (stability in monetary and fiscal policy, etc.), and the KKK/TP frothing at the mouth at the RINOs for not being radical and destructive enough. The National Party is likely to come apart at the seams in the next two to four years.
Those two factors make it next to impossible to get most of the agenda Trump has said he wants done. Build a wall? Congress isn’t able to pass the authorizing legislation or provide the funding, sorry. (And no, we are not going to war with Mexico the get the money from them.) Repeal and replace the ACA? The Corporatists won’t want to hurt their insurance buddies and the KKK/Tea Party will want to burn the whole thing down, and neither of them have anything for the “replace” part yet, even after five years. Add in the stuff that’s just plain unconstitutional (which, if done via Executive Order will be challenged in the Courts by liberal groups like the ACLU, just like conservative groups challenged everything Obama did), and that will pretty much stymie Trump’s agenda.
And when the mouth-breathers don’t get everything Daddy Trump promised them in the first one hundred days, or even the first thousand, they’ll turn on him, too.
So, I don’t think Trump will get anything done, and the Party may well crack up in the process, too. Trump, the Corporatists and the KKK/Tea Party will find governing a hell of a lot harder than just throwing stones (or is it Mazeltov cocktails?).
It will certainly be interesting to watch from the sidelines as we continue to build.
