Moscow

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Monday March 29, 2010 · 9:38 AM PDT

2010/03/29 · 09:38

A quick "I'm alive" post for my subscribers, and a short talk about the attacks in Moscow today from the point of view of an American Student studying there.

davidshor

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Wednesday February 24, 2010 · 5:18 AM PST

2010/02/24 · 05:18

It's already well established that Rasmussen polls are consistently to the right of other polls, and this is often explained in terms of legitimate differences in methodological minutiae.

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However, looking at the a large database of Rasmussen polls, it seems that their pro-republican bias, or House Effect, is not monolithic. There seems to be evidence that Rasmussen's house effect is much larger when Republicans are behind, and that it appears and disappears quickly at different points in the election cycle.

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See graphs and more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Monday January 18, 2010 · 3:42 PM PST

2010/01/18 · 15:42

A quick trick to approximate income distributions for countries using easily available data, a ranking of estimated medians, discussion, and an interactive spreadsheet available for download.

See more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Sunday November 15, 2009 · 8:05 AM PST

2009/11/15 · 08:05

Stochastic Democracy breaks down the results of new paper, concluding that attempts to take the subjectivity from drawing legislative districts by imposing compactness("Roundness") requirements are fundamentally flawed, producing unrepresentative legislatures with large Republican bias.

That is to say, that if we get rid of "funny-looking" districts and make all districts roughly round with equal population, there will be a strong Republican bias. That is to say, some form of gerrymandering(in the form of funny looking districts) is necessary in order to have a representative legislature.

See graphs and more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Tuesday November 03, 2009 · 12:53 PM PST

2009/11/03 · 12:53

For those unable to wait a couple hours, Stochastic Democracy provides final forecasts for the races in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and Maine using the statistical model that produced the closest forecasts of the 2008 cycle.

Go below the fold or to the website to see discussion and graphs.

StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Sunday November 01, 2009 · 7:23 PM PST

2009/11/01 · 19:23

Stochastic Democracy examines polling in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and Maine using the statistical model that produced the closest forecasts of the 2008 cycle.

Go below the fold or to the website to see discussion and graphs. Feel free to read more about our methodology, the past elections we've covered, or our past forecasting accuracy.

StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Saturday June 20, 2009 · 3:26 PM PDT

2009/06/20 · 15:26

In the last couple of days, a dizzying number of different statistical arguments have been put forward regarding the legitimacy of the 2009 Iranian election.

In order to keep track of them all, I've made a summary of all the major quantitative arguments I've heard so far and statistical commentary on them.

See more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Friday June 19, 2009 · 12:15 AM PDT

2009/06/19 · 00:15

Professor Sam Wang of Princeton, of Princeton Election Consortium fame, just posted an analysis of the 2009 Iranian election here.

Basically, he asserts that while the public opinion polls conducted for Iran at large were all over the place and of suspect quality (Polls ranged from Ahmedinejad +16 to Mousavi +32), polls for Tehran specifically might be more reliable. He concludes that "For now, my interpretation is that the official returns in Tehran are unbelievable."

Below the fold, I discuss potential problems in his analysis and highlight another possible electoral discrepancy.

***Crossposted at StochasticDemocracy.com***

davidshor

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Thursday June 18, 2009 · 4:46 AM PDT

2009/06/18 · 04:46

Professor Mebane, whose analysis we have linked to earlier, has just updated his report.

Money Quote:

"The results give moderately strong support for a diagnosis that the http://2009 election was affected by significant fraud."

More under the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

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Sunday June 14, 2009 · 6:56 PM PDT

2009/06/14 · 18:56

Stochastic Democracy looks at recently released regional election data, but has not yet found any conclusive evidence of fraud. So far, the data seems to conform to Benford's law. However, the data seems inconsistent, and there are roughly 100,000 missing votes. Moreover, the percentage of "spoiled ballots" is much higher in areas where the opposition performed strongly.

More below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday June 13, 2009 · 1:43 PM PDT

2009/06/13 · 13:43

There has been a lot of discussion about a graph showing partial vote returns that Andrew Sullivan posted on his blog.

Looking at the underlying numbers, nothing seems unusual about vote returns, making this line of criticism seem invalid. This does not however, rule out the possibility of fraud.

**Crossposted at StochasticDemocracy.com**

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday May 12, 2009 · 8:49 PM PDT

2009/05/12 · 20:49

I explore and justify the idea of a calorie tax, while showing that even those rejecting paternalism have reason to support the proposal.

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Moscow

Rasmussen Polling Irregularities - A first post

A quick trick for approximating Median income

Stochastic Democracy: Compactness and Gerrymandering

Stochastic Democracy: Final Election 2009 Forecasts

Stochastic Democracy: Election 2009

Iranian Statistics Round-Up

Yet Another Iran Stat Analysis

Professor: "Moderately Strong" Evidence for "Significant Fraud" in Iran

Statistical Analysis of Iranian Election Data

Electoral Fraud in Iran? Insufficient Evidence So Far

A Calorie Tax?