I read with some interest (and a few chuckles) the front page diaryby Jed Lewison, which describes the growing notion among conservatives that "the polls" are a product of a vast, left-wing, socialist conspiracy designed to kill the will of the Republican faithful.
That desparate Republicans can so easily toss aside science & methodology while breaking out the tinfoil hats is not surprising. Pathetic and sad, but not surprising. As Bill Clinton might say, I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
A look at Florida, however, throws cold water on this theory. If anything, it kinda points in the other direction. Since July 1, 2012, there have been 26 head-to-head polls conducted of the state by a variety of firms. Of those 26 polls, President Obama has led in all by 9 of them.
And of those 9 polls in which Obama has trailed, he has trailed by an average of just 2 points. Moreover, these 9 polls were conducted by just four pollsters: Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, Purple Strategies, and AIF/McLaughlin. Now, prior to 2012 I had never heard of the latter three outfits. Rasmussen, of course, has been around and mocked for years now.
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