Today's polls by Zogby (+2) and Rasmussen (+1) point to a close race in Missouri, where I think Obama will perform above expectations on Nov. 4 and pull out a satisfying victory.
Today, the secretary of state estimated a whopping 75% of registered voters will cast ballots in the Show-Me state. If true, this would certainly be good news for Obama.
Then there's this little nugget about first-time voters:
In addition to the estimated turnout, Secretary Carnahan also released the statewide voter registration total for the upcoming election. There are a record-setting 4,205,774 Missourians currently registered to vote, which includes over 340,000 first time voters.
A large portion of the new voters are younger Missourians. Nearly 150,000 of the first time registrants are 18-24 years old, which is more than double any other age group. In both Kansas City and St. Louis City, 40 percent of the new registrants are 18-24 years old.
Kansas City and St. Louis are what put Sen. McCaskill over the hump in 2006. Assuming a large turnout of African American, suburbanite and young voters on Nov. 4, Obama will carry this great bellweather state! (Remember, Missouri surprised many when it picked Obama over Hillary in the primaries).
If Obama can keep things close in the polls (the last six polls of the state have been within 2 points either way) then Obama's ground game and enthusiasm gap should be enough to turn the state blue.
M I Z!