AK-Sen 2010: Republican primary - contridicting polls

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Tuesday January 06, 2009 · 11:37 PM PST

2009/01/06 · 23:37

Not that I like either of them, but I do hate one of them, can you guess who? You Betcha!

Murkowski garnered 57 percent to Palin's 33 percent; 9 percent said they were not sure.

And given the senator's popularity, Dittman says Palin would not be wise to challenge Murkowski.

Poll

35 votes Show Results

Which poll do you believe

35 votes Vote Now!

Which poll do you believe

R2k

11 votes

Dittman

10 votes

Both, something happened to Palin's favorables in the last few weeks

14 votes

A walk down dkos memory lane via archive.org

mkaplan

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Thursday October 30, 2008 · 11:34 PM PDT

2008/10/30 · 23:34

Back in 2004 I knew about dailykos, and I visited when I needed a pick-me-up, but I was not a dedicated user (perhaps I should say addict) as I am today (probably reading 50-75 diaries a day these days). In 2006 I became a much more dedicated viewer, but I still didn't have an account and I just liked to watch from afar. Only this year did I start posting some diaries, but mostly I like to enjoy reading the awesome things others have to say. So in that spirit, I wanted to take a more comprehensive look back at what was going on then, so I turned to archive.org. It's surely not the most satisfying record, they don't have some dates, and kind of frustratingly they don't have November 7th, 2006 (election day) so I can't see the diaries (FWIW, I can go back and look at the main page via entering an old n here: http://dailykos.com/... But still, the links on archive.org work (if you clean them up a bit) and in reading the front page you can get a pretty good idea of the mood. I was completely impressed by the optimism and prescience even in the face of dramatically upsetting results. I hope that now as we are on the brink of victorious jubilation, that we can pause and remember how far we've come.

Looking back at the past is

54 votes Vote Now!

Looking back at the past is

Fun

12 votes

Dangerous

1 vote

Painful

4 votes

All of the above

37 votes

Video: McCain spokesman gives a nod and a wink

mkaplan

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Thursday October 30, 2008 · 1:53 PM PDT

2008/10/30 · 13:53

It's clear that McCain campaign has put the smack down on to not mention Rev. Wright by name, but this scumbag is obviously referring to him, he will just not mention his name. What a fucking coward. h/t to Jonathan Martin @ politico

mkaplan

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Monday September 22, 2008 · 4:33 AM PDT

2008/09/22 · 04:33

I always thought of Nevada as a long shot, but maybe that's not so.

From: http://www.prnewswire.com/...

As the two major presidential candidates prepare to debate Friday night, John McCain (45.8 percent) and Barack Obama (45.3 percent) are in a virtual dead heat, with McCain leading by the slightest of margins among likely voters in the state of Nevada, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

Poll

96 votes Show Results

Who will win Nevada

96 votes Vote Now!

Who will win Nevada

Barack Obama

80 votes

John McCain

16 votes

Advice to Obama Campaign: Channel Hillary's Outrage

mkaplan

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday September 13, 2008 · 9:52 PM PDT

2008/09/13 · 21:52

Recall that this was very effective in the primaries at grabbing the headlines:
From: http://abcnews.go.com/...

"Shame on you, Barack Obama," she said in Cincinnati. "It is time you ran a campaign consistent with your messages and public. That's what I expect from you. Meet me in Ohio. Let's have a debate about your tactics and your behavior on this campaign."

Barack, or perhaps Barack and Hillary can make a joint appearance and repeat the shame on you business with regard to the "Straight Talk Express" becoming the Bullshit Express.

More below...

mkaplan

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Thursday September 11, 2008 · 12:06 PM PDT

2008/09/11 · 12:06

That is pundits will be saying when they look back at the Sarah Palin choice. The Sleeping Giant is us, the progressives in this country. I know in my heart that she is destined to fall flat on her face, maybe it will be at the debate, or maybe the drips of hypocritical information that keep coming out about her. But the side effect of all of this will be that she has awoken us from our months of comfort and slumber and our overconfidence in our candidate. The net result will be a victory for Democrats in November but only if we continue to awake from our long slumber.

Poll

173 votes Show Results

Who is the sleeping giant

173 votes Vote Now!

Who is the sleeping giant

Liberals

152 votes

Conservatives

21 votes

Obama with a huge bounce in Gallup Daily

mkaplan

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Thursday August 28, 2008 · 11:50 AM PDT

2008/08/28 · 11:50

I think the Gallup Daily is a crap poll, and national polls don't mean much. For a realistic picture of the current state of the race, please see 538. However, for what it's worth, this is encouraging.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin.

See: See: http://www.gallup.com/...

Poll

154 votes Show Results

The gallup daily is

154 votes Vote Now!

The gallup daily is

Worthwhile

18 votes

Worthless

136 votes

The most beautiful thing Hillary could have done

mkaplan

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Wednesday August 27, 2008 · 5:45 PM PDT

2008/08/27 · 17:45

This is IMHO more powerful than her speech could have ever been. Actions speak much louder than words. Everybody (including myself) who said that Hillary was out for herself, and wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012 should eat their words. This was just absolutely beautiful, thank you Hillary!

mkaplan

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday June 08, 2008 · 7:45 PM PDT

2008/06/08 · 19:45

Ok, I'm not a Poblano stalker (much), even though my last diary was also about Poblano in the press; but I've got to give as many props as I can to the man. The reason is I am big user of statistics and regression daily in my job at Google, and I love to see these methods being used so successfully for political prediction.

http://www.newsweek.com/...

Teaser:

Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw.

More below...

Poll

59 votes Show Results

Regression-based political prediction

59 votes Vote Now!

Regression-based political prediction

A flash in the pan

3 votes

The future of political prediction

56 votes

Poblano's article in the NY Post

mkaplan

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday June 01, 2008 · 6:25 PM PDT

2008/06/01 · 18:25

I, like probably most of dailykos readers am a huge fan of Poblano, who recently unmasked himself as Nate Silver. I wandered over to fivethirtyeight today, and found a link to a NY Post article that he wrote as a Guest columnist. It's really great to see bloggers cross over into mainstream media, and even better when it's by sheer talent that first got noticed (at least with regard to polling data analysis) here at dailykos.

Poll

116 votes Show Results

Popularity Contest: Poblano...

116 votes Vote Now!

Popularity Contest: Poblano...

The most famous blogger from dailykos evar

13 votes

Will be the most famous blogger from dailykos evar

24 votes

A famous dailykos blogger

51 votes

A dailykos blogger

1 vote

A blogger

1 vote

Very spicy

26 votes

Reid starts to walk Clinton off the stage

mkaplan

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Friday May 30, 2008 · 9:07 AM PDT

2008/05/30 · 09:07

I am glad that he is getting ready to close the door on Hillary. I'm also glad they let her stay in this long, this way her supporters can hopefully see that they lost this thing in a fair fashion. I just hope that whatever comes out of RBC tomorrow is seen as generally fair to most people.

Two highlights from the article, but the rest is below

And he ventured this prediction about the outcome: "Probably just simple math indicates that on next Tuesday, after we get the results from Puerto Rico on Sunday and South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, Obama will probably have the necessary number at that time anyway."

also, I was happy to see this

"The nominee is not determined on popular vote. It's determined on delegates," Reid said.

Poll

255 votes Show Results

Who wins the primary

255 votes Vote Now!

Who wins the primary

Hillary Clinton

5 votes

Math

250 votes

Updated: Monday Super Delegate Open Thread (Obama +4)

mkaplan

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 12, 2008 · 9:25 AM PDT

2008/05/12 · 09:25

Barack Obama has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the NBC NEWS superdelegate count with the endorsement of Hawaii's Dolly Strazar. This is his second of the day and puts him now officially over the top, 277-276.5.

From: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

Somebody asked for a concise list of the supers, so here we go:

Rep. Tom Allen (ME)
DNC Dolly Strazar (HI)
DNC R. Keith Roark (ID)
Sen. Akaka (HI)

The last one is not "official", but Obama won 80% of the vote in Idaho. Does anybody doubt he's going to come out for Obama?

Poll

434 votes Show Results

How many superdelegates for Obama today

434 votes Vote Now!

How many superdelegates for Obama today

4 votes

17 votes

118 votes

144 votes

81 votes

23 votes

14 votes

9 votes

more than 9

24 votes

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AK-Sen 2010: Republican primary - contridicting polls

A walk down dkos memory lane via archive.org

Video: McCain spokesman gives a nod and a wink

We're going to win Nevada, with your help!

Advice to Obama Campaign: Channel Hillary's Outrage

All they have done is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve

Obama with a huge bounce in Gallup Daily

The most beautiful thing Hillary could have done

More mainstream media coverage of Poblano's Regression-Based Political Prediction

Poblano's article in the NY Post

Reid starts to walk Clinton off the stage

Updated: Monday Super Delegate Open Thread (Obama +4)