Travis County Texas GOP in for a Wild 2 Years

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Wednesday March 02, 2016 · 9:40 PM PST

2016/03/02 · 21:40

Reality Sinks In for the Travis County GOP

Primary elections in Texas can yield some wildly unpredictable results. On the Democratic side, our Quixotic efforts to elect a Railroad Commissioner has once again netted us a three-way race containing only one serious candidate, who somehow placed third. Sigh.

On the Republican side, we have folks like Debbie “Terror Babies” Riddle losing to even more extreme challengers. The only speck of hope is that Molly White lost to Hugh Shine, a returning Representative (after a 30-year break).

But the Travis County GOP is reeling as incumbent Chairman James Dickey lost to conservative firebrand and large mammary fan, Robert Morrow. His Twitter feed is a troll’s paradise, and the title image is a clearly frustrated lame duck chairman exasperated by the attention they’re suddenly getting.

Watching them deliriously scramble to figure out how to prevent Morrow from taking office has been so strange. That they are unable (or perhaps unwilling) to see the parallel with Trump's candidacy is laughable.

Vice-Chair Matt Makowiak, normally pretty strident himself, has been trying to convince people that he can change the election results.

I should buy stock in popcorn.

Houston Congressional Races, 2016

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Friday February 26, 2016 · 4:42 PM PST

2016/02/26 · 16:42

This has been a labor of love, for sure. And I’m sprinting to finish before 7PM Central, when the polls close everywhere but El Paso, TX. Check out South, West, East, North, DFW, and Central for the rest of the pack.

CD-02

Republican Ted Poe is the incumbent in CD-02. He’s unopposed in the primary, and will face Pat Bryan, who is the unopposed Democrat.

CD-07

Republican Incumbent John Culberson faces two primary challengers: Maria Espinoza and James Lloyd. James Cargas is the only Democrat who filed.

CD-09

Democrat Al Green holds CD-09. He faces Jeff Martin in November. Expected to be safe.

CD-14

Republican Randy Weber holds this district. He’ll face a primary challenge in Keith Casey, and the winner will face Democrat Michael Cole in November.

CD-18

Democrat Sheila Jackson-Lee holds CD-18, and is unopposed in the primary. She’ll face the winner among Reggie Gonzales, Lori Bartley, Sharon Joy Fisher, and Ava Pate. Expect a runoff in the Republican ballot, with that many challengers…

CD-22

Republican Pete Olsen holds this district. He is unopposed in his primary, and will face either Mark Gibson or A.R. Hassan (no website that I can find) in November.

CD-29

And lastly, longtime Democratic incumbent Gene Green faces a challenger in former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia. I’m a little hot under the collar about this one, because Garcia resigned as sheriff to run for Mayor of Houston. He lost, and the Harris County Commissioners Court appointed a Republican sheriff in his place. Now he’s taking on one of the longest-serving members of the Texas Delegation in what appears to be a power grab after giving up his day job and losing his last race that was only in November 2015. Also running is Dominique M. Garcia. If I could vote there, I’d back Gene Green. The Republicans will challenge the eventual Democratic Nominee with either Julio Garza or Robert Schafranek.

And that’s all for Texas. There are about 15 minutes left of Early Voting, so if you’re able, GOTV!

Central Texas Congressional Races, 2016

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Thursday February 25, 2016 · 9:47 PM PST

2016/02/25 · 21:47

Still working my way around Texas, and trying to finish the series up before the end of Early Voting Friday (Feb 26th). Check out South, West, East, North, and DFW for the rest of the pack. I will try to get to the Houston Area before the polls close.

Five of the seven districts I’ll cover in this post touch Travis County. It’s home to the State Capitol, and is affectionately known as the blueberry in the tomato soup. During redistricting, Republicans did their best to dilute the voting strength of the most liberal and most densely-registered county.

CD-10

I have a long-running love/hate relationship with CD-10. I used to live there. I worked hard for Dan Grant when he ran (and sadly lost the primary race) for the seat in 2008. Republican Michael McCaul has held onto the seat during several redrawings of the map, and he’s unopposed in the primary this year. Tawana Cadien returns to take on McCaul again, but first she will face Scot Gallaher in the Democratic primary. I haven’t met Scot, but I know Tawana, and find her to be a credible candidate.

The district is a monster that has population centers at each end (Houston and Austin) with huge swaths of rural TX in between.

CD-17

Republican incumbent Bill Flores faces two primary challengers in Kaleb Simms and Ralph Patterson. Bill Flores took the seat after redistricting swamped former Rep Chet Edwards (D). The lone Democratic challenger is Bill Matta. This district takes a slice off the top of Travis County before spiking north.

CD-20

One of the districts that doesn’t touch Travis County is CD-20, based in Bexar County and home of Democratic incumbent Joaquin Castro. He is unopposed in the primary AND the general, so we can all enjoy one of the Castro brothers in the House while the other hangs out in the Cabinet.

CD-21

Republican Lamar Smith has held this seat since 1992. Despite being about as conservative as they come, he’s got three challengers in John Murphy, Todd Phelps, and Matt McCall. Phelps and McCall seem to be running to the right of Lamar Smith, which I didn’t think was even possible. Yet, there they are. John Murphy actually looks promising. A centrist-ish Republican. Those guys are rare anymore, and I can only hope he sees the light and becomes a Democrat in time.

On the Democratic side, Tejas Vakil and Tom Wakely are duking it out to take on (likely winner) Smith in the fall. The district runs from Austin to San Antonio before jutting out to the west. More conservative rural dilution of the liberal-dense population centers.

CD-25

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams is the Republican Incumbent for CD-25. This district used to be the home territory of Lloyd Doggett before being redistricted to all-get-out. It’s a form of fajita strip districting that takes a swipe at Travis County’s liberal population and pairs it with the vastly more conservative rural sections to the north.

Kathi Thomas is the only Democratic challenger. As of the publication of this post, I can’t locate a website for Kathi. If you find one, please let me know.

CD-31

Democrat Mike Clark is unopposed in his efforts to take on Republican incumbent John Carter. This district just touches Travis County, and is one of the few that is actually both compact and contiguous. Weird, right? There is one primary challenge to John Carter in Mike Sweeney on the Republican party’s ballot. He’s running to the right of Carter, but I get the feeling that Carter’s going to make it through to November.

CD-35

Home of Lloyd Doggett, the GOP’s most-targeted Democratic incumbent. Susan Narvaiz returns to challenge Lloyd, and while we are never complacent (he’s been targeted just too many times for use to ever relax), this is likely a safe seat. No primary challengers on either side of the aisle makes this a bit of a yawn in the primary. Let’s check back in the fall, mmmkay?

But look at the shape of this thing, will ya?

And that’s it for Central Texas. Thanks for following along, folks. If you’re in Texas, remember that Friday, February 26th is the final day of early voting. Election day is Super Tuesday (March 1). Vote down-ballot!

Dallas & Fort Worth Congressional Races, 2016

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Friday February 19, 2016 · 10:50 AM PST

2016/02/19 · 10:50

I’ve taken a bit of a break, but continuing my series of Congressional races across Texas is still on my to-do list. I’ve hit South, West, East, and North so far. Texas is tough in a lot of places. Our biggest problem is not the quantity of Republicans as much as it’s the apathy of so many voters (many Democratic). Two thirds of the electorate sat out of the 2014 races, and well, that hurts. A lot.

Turning our attention to the Dallas / Fort Worth area, we’ve got these seats up for grabs:

CD-03

Plano and McKinney are the larger cities in CD-03. The incumbent is Republican Sam Johnson, who has been there since 1991 and is currently 85 years old. On the Republican side, he’s being challenged by David Cornette, Keith L. Thurgood, and John Calvin Slavens. Each challenger is running to the right of the incumbent.

Two Democrats are running: Michael A Filak and Adam P. Bell.

CD-12

The 12th Congressional District is held by Kay Granger, a Republican first elected in 1996. She faces Democratic challenger Bill Bradshaw. I can’t find much on Mr. Bradshaw, and it’s not looking good for a pickup seat. Mark Greene ran a spirited race against Granger in 2014, and received 26.3% in a mid-term year. It’s a shame that he didn’t take another run, but at least it’s not totally unopposed.

CD-24

Kenny E. Marchant is the Republican incumbent, and he’ll face Democrat Jan McDowell in November. Both are unopposed in the Primary. This covers Tarrant, Denton, and Dallas Counties.

CD-26

Republican Incumbent Michael Burgess faces two challengers in Joel A. Krause and Micah Beebe. In November, he’ll face Democrat Eric Mauck. It’s going to be a hard fight, but I’m glad to see someone taking it on.

CD-30

Thirteen-term Democratic Incumbent Eddie Bernice Johnson faces a returning Primary challenge in Barbara Mallory Caraway, and this year we also see Brandon J. Vance running in the Democratic Primary. It seems quite likely that Representative Johnson will keep her seat. The winner of the Democratic Primary will face Charles Lingerfelt, the only Republican to file to run.

TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) Incumbent

CD-32

Cherie Myint Roughneen, Paul Brown, and Russ Ramsland are all challenging Incumbent Republican Pete Sessions. All three are political neophytes, and run even further right that Sessions while having no political acumen. There is no Democratic challenger at all. I expect Sessions to have an easy time of it.

CD-33

Democrat Mark Veasey is running again for the 33rd. He’ll face off against the winner between Bruce Chadwick and Mark Mitchell, two self-funded Republicans who are not inspiring any confidence in their ability to represent the district in the slightest. It’s almost certainly a safe seat, but hey, don’t forget to vote for him anyway!

South Texas Congressional Races, 2016

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Wednesday December 16, 2015 · 1:42 PM PST

2015/12/16 · 13:42

TX-15: one of the "Fajita Strip districts

I’m working my way around the state of Texas, and have hit West, East, and North so far. It’s a bleak outlook in quite a few races. For a nice pick-me-up, it’s time to look at South Texas! The Rio Grande Valley has long been a Democratic stronghold, though the occasional Republican slips through. It also has its fair share of perennial candidates who aren’t exactly credible. One thing I love and hate about being a Democrat: we try not to discourage anybody from participating. With the exception of the super-fringe LaRouche folks, we take ‘em all.

CD-15

District 15 has been held by Reuben Hinojosa since 1996. Earlier this year, he announced that he would not seek another term, and it’s set off a 7-candidate Democratic primary to replace him. There are three Republicans seeking the seat (Tim Westley, Ruben Villarreal, and Xavier Salinas). Given that Democrats have taken this seat with at least 60% of the vote in Presidential election years, I expect it to remain in Democratic hands in 2016. That said, seven candidates running makes this an almost inevitable runoff primary. Depending on how much the candidates bloody each other, the general election could be closer than comfortable. The candidates are:

Dolly Elizondo
Joel Quintanilla
Johnny “JP” Partain
Juan “Sonny” Palacios, Jr.
Rance G “Randy” Sweeten
Ruben Ramirez Hinojosa
Vincente Gonzalez

CD-27

The Republican incumbent is Blake “Ducky Pajamas” Farenthold. He’s one of the most strident “birther” congressmen, and recently settled a sexual harassment suit brought by his former communications director. He’s being challenged by three Democrats, two of whom are perennial candidates.

I’ve lost track of how many times Ray Madrigal has run for something, but his most recent endeavor was to primary Wendy Davis for Governor. He has never won, and I don’t hold out much hope for him this time.

Wayne Raasch is another often-ran, having stepped up for TX-05 in 2002, TX-11 in 2004, and most recently TX HD-28 in 2010.

Raul “Roy” Barrera isn’t showing up in any searches yet. I’m hoping it’s not the guy who was the Republican candidate for Attorney General against Jim Mattox back in the ‘86 cycle. However, if it IS, and he’ll have to prove his Democratic credentials. I can’t say that I’d blame him for leaving the current Republican party.

CD-28

Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar has held this seat since 1992. He faces a primary challenge from William Hayward. If my research is correct, Mr. Hayward has voted in Republican primaries in 2006, 2008, and 2012.

The actual Republican candidate is Zeffen Hardin.

I don’t see either of these candidates dislodging Henry Cuellar, but they are welcome to give it a go.

CD-34

The truly safe seat: Filemon Vela is the only candidate who filed for TX-34, and the incumbent Democrat will retain his seat for the next cycle. I hope he uses his free time to help other Democrats get elected!

North Texas Congressional Races

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Tuesday December 15, 2015 · 3:47 PM PST

2015/12/15 · 15:47

I’ve covered West and East, so now it’s time for North:

CD-04

John Ratcliffe is the incumbent Republican. He faces two primary challengers in Lou Gigliotti and Ray Hall, but no Democrats filed.

CD-06

Steven Fowler filed to run against Joe Barton, the incumbent Republican in TX-06. The Democratic Primary has three candidates. Don Jaquess, Ruby Faye Woolridge, and Jeffrey Roseman. It’s interesting that Roseman has a filing address in North Carolina, and doesn’t appear to be in Texas at all.

CD-13

The image is at the top, and it’s already over. Mac Thornberry filed for reelection, and no one else is running.

CD-19

Incumbent Republican Randy Neugebauer is retiring, setting up a six-way race to replace him. No Democrats filed. The candidates are: DeRenda Warren, Donald R. May, Glen Robertson, Greg Garrett, Jodey Arrington, and Michael Bob Starr.

In conclusion: We have largely given up on the northern section of the state. It’s painfully easy to write off large chunks of this seemingly pure red territory. It’s a shame, because we probably have more support out there than we think. Democrats in highly rural districts and often brow-beaten and hiding. I can’t blame them.

But this is where we should begin chipping away at school boards and city councils. Run in the county races, build up the bench, and let people get to know you in a non-partisan way before you show your partisan stripe. I wish you all luck, and hope that there is enough statewide to give you a reason to get to the polls.

East Texas Congressional Races, 2016

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Monday December 14, 2015 · 3:37 PM PST

2015/12/14 · 15:37

I wrote about West Texas Congressional Races not long ago, and while we’re still in the filing period (it closes Monday, December 14th in Texas), I thought I’d move on to cover East Texas. I don’t expect to see much change in the filings for the region before the deadline.

CD-1

Louie Gohmert is the incumbent Republican, and he’s facing a primary challenge from Simon Winston. On the Democratic side, Shirley McKellar has filed again to run for the 1st.

Covering the counties of Angelina, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk, Shelby, Upshur, Smith, Sabine, San Augustine, and Marion, this district is nestled up in the top east corner of the state. The lasts time McKellar faced off with Gohmert in 2012, she garnered 26.9% to his 71.4% (1.6% Libertarian). I fully expect Mr. Gohmert to win his primary, and we’ll see how the rematch goes.

CD-5

Jeb Hensarling is the incumbent Republican in TX-05. He is running for reelection, and is currently unopposed for the primary and the general. He is essentially reelected already.

CD-8

Kevin Brady is the incumbent Republican, and he faces three primary challengers in Andre Dean and Steve Toth (UPDATE: Craig McMichael filed after my initial post). No Democrat filed.

TX-08, Republican primary, no D challenger.

CD-36

Brian Babin is the Republican incumbent, and he has no opposition in either the primary or the general. He’s essentially reelected already.

To wrap up: We have one lone Democrat in East Texas. She’s run before, and has garnered respectable enough numbers to not be embarrassed, but it’s unlikely to be a pick up for a long time, despite the fact that the incumbent steps on his tongue regularly. We’ve gotta get our people to the polls, folks!

The filing deadline closes in about half an hour. If anything changes, I’ll update.

West Texas Congressional Races, 2016

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Tuesday December 01, 2015 · 12:42 PM PST

2015/12/01 · 12:42

Last time I ran this series, I started with West Texas because even though it covered a huge swath of territory, it had the fewest districts. That’s still the case, but it also is worth noting because it has the most contested seat in the Texas congressional delegation: CD-23.

CD-23

This huge but sparsely populated district has flipped so many times it’s hard to remember where it is currently. It was first drawn in 1967 and was held by Democrats until 1993. Henry Bonilla was the first Republican to have the seat (1993 to 2007). Then the flipping begins.

Democrat Ciro Rodriguez held the seat for 2 terms. Then Quico Canseco (R) served one term. Democrat Pete Gallego served one term before being defeated in 2014. That election was 49.8% for Will Hurd (R), 47.7% Pete Gallego, and 2.5% for the Libertarian.

Pete Gallego is running again, and this seat is the most closely-watched and hotly-contested congressional district in the state. It’s an imminently winnable race, and I’m so very glad that Pete is back in the game.

UPDATE: Pete now faces a primary challenge from Lee Keenen. What I’m able to see is that he’s under 40, and has almost NO voting history. This is one of the more irritating parts of being a “big tent” party. Not gonna tell the guy “No” but I really wish he had decided not to run.

CD-11

Held by Mike Conaway since 2005, this district encompasses the cities of Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Brownwood, and Sweetwater.

In 2012, Democrat Jim Riley challenged Conaway, and lost with only 18.6% (the Libertarian candidate garnered 2.8%). In 2014, he had no Democratic opposition. Still waiting to see if anybody steps up to take a chance on the race.

CD-16

El Paso is the hub of Congressional District 16, and is represented by Beto O’Rourke. He served on the El Paso City Council before running for Congress in 2012, and has been there ever since. Only one Republican has ever held CD-16, and that was for one term in 1963. Pretty sure this one is going to stay in the D column, but I try not to get complacent.

The filing deadline for all of the races in Texas is December 14th. It’s two weeks away, but I wanted to get started on this series again before I get sidetracked by holiday planning.

UPDATE: Ben Mendoza has filed in the Democratic Primary against Beto. He has a long history of filing late, has bounced one of the checks for his filing fee, and seems to be the type to run for anything that looks interesting. I’m betting on Beto.

1980: State Rep (lost)
2006: Congress (bounced check, so not placed on ballot)
2008: Congress (lost)
2010: El Paso County Commissioner, Precinct 2 (lost)

If you’re in any of these districts and hear of anything I’ve missed (a Republican challenger, a Democratic contender, or any primary squabbles), please chime in. I’m just one person in Central Texas who happens to be a bit of a down-ballot junkie.

I’ll update this diary if anything new comes up. The main thing to keep in mind is that no matter what happens, WE MUST ALL VOTE in November 2016! Don’t give up on Texas, folks. We can go blue, if we can just get everybody to the polls.

Let's Round Up Texas Races

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Tuesday November 17, 2015 · 9:43 AM PST

2015/11/17 · 09:43

Map of TX Counties — This is a really big state, y'all.

Filing season has opened in Texas, and goes through December 14th. When that’s done, we’ll know who is (and who isn’t) running for office all across Texas.

Several years ago (2007!), I ran a series of diaries that discussed the congressional races in Texas, and I’m thinking about doing it again. We’ve picked up a few more seats since then, from 32 to 36. I’m going to stare at a map again and see if my original—and completely arbitrary—division of the state is still viable.

It’s easy to write off a state like Texas. Our turnout is abysmal, the Republicans have control of the State Legislature and the courts, and every statewide office (save one Judge, where an R switched to D). It looks hopeless. Hell, it frequently feels hopeless. But I’m not willing to give up. I adopted a long view in 2006 when I first got politically active, and ten years later I’m still looking further down the field. Losses hurt, but giving up will destroy me.

We have the numbers to turn this around, but we have to convince the voters that it matters whether they show up at the polls. We have to recruit worthy candidates to run, and while it’s a daunting task, we need to follow Howard Dean’s 50-State Strategy and run a 254-County Strategy. Just typing that makes me shudder. This state is massive.

And I love it, sometimes in spite of itself.

We’re stuck with Dan Patrick, Greg Abbott, Ted Cruz, and John Cornyn for a while, but we can chip away at the Texas congressional seats and the TXLege every two years. Let’s take a look at where we can make a difference.

A Little Solace in Texas

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Thursday November 06, 2014 · 9:42 PM PST

2014/11/06 · 21:42

It was bad. It's over. It's time to learn what we can from it, and move on.

Part of moving on for me is identifying one of the most massive things that went wrong.

The City of Houston has a total population of 2,195,914. Add in Plano and Lubbock, you get 2,709,861.
There were 2,779,151 Republican votes cast statewide.

The City of San Antonio has a total population of 1,409,019. Throw in Arlington, and you have 1,788,596
Democrats who voted statewide = 1,799,572.

Greg Abbott got 59% of the 33% who bothered to show up on Tuesday.
That equals 19% out of 14 million registered voters in Texas.
9,361,138 just never showed up at the polls.

Also, Abbott got 9.5% of the total registered voters in his Primary Election in March.

VOTE EVERY ELECTION.

Long view, people.

Blue Texas?

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Monday March 11, 2013 · 9:19 PM PDT

2013/03/11 · 21:19

It's been so long since I've blogged that I think I've forgotten how. I keep meaning to say something, to start shouting into the void again, and every time I pick up the virtual pen, I blank out. The words stick to the roof of my mouth and I don't seem to be able to get past it. I'm doing the very thing I despise in others: I'm letting the perfect get in the way of good enough. I guess I'd better shut up and start writing.

I got stalled in November 2008 when I lost my job the day before Obama got elected. I haven't written a diary on DailyKos since. I picked up a job as political director for a local campaign, which was in keeping with my "keep it local" mantra. I was part of the winning team, which was awesome. I worked myself out of a job, which was less awesome. By August of 2009, I was starting to get desperate for work, and began to look outside my beloved hometown of Austin. I picked up one of the hardest jobs I've ever had: Executive Director of the League of Women Voters of Texas. It's a fantastic organization, one I will be a member of for the rest of my days. But to do it, I had to be non-partisan. During the 82nd Legislative Session, when the sonogram bill went through, when the Republicans got a super-majority in the TX House, when lots of really great Democrats went home in defeat.

I had to resign as precinct chair, and from the SDEC. I felt awful. I managed to mentor a long-distance friend as he got involved with races in Boston, MA. I envied his pretty blue state as I steered him to his local state representatives, and I was really proud to watch him dig into a congressional race. I was heartened to see how he accepted a primary defeat with grace, and I felt as though I was still participating in a way, even though I was muzzled at home.

I did the best I could, for as long as I could manage, before sprinting for the door in February of 2011. With a new job that allowed me to be partisan again, I came back to the fold, but I was quieter, less energetic, and more than a little dejected that I'd have to regain some valuable territory. The political world had moved on without me, I thought. Then I remembered, I'm in Texas. As Democrats in a red state, we're not going anywhere fast.
I'll continue prattling after the jump...

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Monday November 03, 2008 · 11:56 AM PST

2008/11/03 · 11:56

I lost my job today.

I was just a little over a month from the three-year mark, and they pulled the plug. Economic downturn. Since I was the last person to join the team, I was the first to get the axe. I can only hope that my (former) co-workers are safe. I'm the youngest, so I have a better chance of bouncing back in one piece.

The bright side is that I'll get to devote the full day to my precinct tomorrow. But selfishly, I'd rather have my job. I've got a mortgage to pay.

We have to win tomorrow. Have to.
We can't afford to have the economy tank any further. At least, I can't.

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