Who Says Obama Can't Win Big States?

senex

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Friday March 07, 2008 · 2:54 PM PST

2008/03/07 · 14:54

I don't support Obama because I believe he is electable. But his electability is a substantial bonus. Still, views continue to circulate that his failure to win certain states (e.g. CA, NY, MA, OH, TX) against Clinton in the primaries spell his doom in the GE. That is a flawed line of reasoning on two accounts. Firstly, the Democratic electorate's behaviour will obviously differ enormously in the GE with one Democratic candidate. Secondly, the Democratic primary is not winner-take-all like the GE (for most states anyhow). Some of Obama's opponents maintain that is current advantage is due to the technicalities of insider baseball (AKA delegate math). Others cast doubt on his ability to win a convincing majority of the popular vote. Still others proclaim his relative inability to win big states, and it is this contention against which I have seen the least argument.

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