Indiana House District map
Indiana has been under a GOP supermajority for most of this decade. Less than ten years ago, the Democrats actually ran the State House of Representatives. Once Republicans won back the State House in the wave year of 2010, they drew the districts, much as they did elsewhere in the the US. That does not mean that the Democratic party does not have opportunities for pickups throughout the state.
In Indiana, a supermajority doesn’t mean as much as it might in other states. A simple majority of house votes can overturn a governor’s veto. Gaining the State House back with this map seems almost impossible. However, a supermajority is able to conduct business without even having to worry about a quorum. In 2011, when the GOP did not yet have a supermajority, Democratic legislators fled to Illinois to attempt to stymie the Right-to-Work legislation. They slowed down business for a while, although eventually RTW did pass.
This year, I expect with Democratic enthusiasm to be much higher than normal for a midterm election, I think the Dems could stand to gain at least a few seats. Currently the GOP has a 70-30 margin.
I break these races down into 4 categories: Priority, Optimistic, At Least Try, and Hold. I will use both the 2012 race by LD (a good year for Dems in Indiana, where 2 statewide races were won), as well as the vote totals in each district’s most recent race. Another good reference is the Indiana Map, which helped me navigate to the targets.
Priority:
I found 6 districts that the Dems should be focused on winning.
4:
This Valparaiso-based district has a powerful GOP rep, so it would be a tough slog. However, the 2012 data shows that Dems outperformed the GOP in this district.
15:
A Lake County-based district that has had close races in the past.
19:
This Lake County district has been even closer in the past than 15. Each of these 2 Lake County districts had Dems outperforming the GOP on average.
20:
Contains the city of LaPorte, as well as Starke County. Dems have had strength there in the past, and Joe Donnelly won it by almost 5000 votes.
26:
Part of this district lies within the Purdue University campus. Dems outperformed the GOP by over 1000 votes in 2012 in this district.
89:
This is the only district within Indianapolis that I would prioritize at this time. It combines the working class city of Beech Grove, and diverse eastern Warren Township. Area to the east is trending Dem, and this district is represented largely by 2 Democrats within the City Council.
Optimistic:
5:
Now we move on to districts that have either been close, or were won by the Democrats on average in 2012. Joe Donnelly easily won this Mishawaka-based district, which hasn’t even been contested at the state house level since then.
81:
The GOP gerrymandered the heck out of Fort Wayne, giving the Dems only one safe district. This north suburban-to-downtown district the only other one that I would consider a possibility.
30:
Kokomo, mashed up with rural beet-red farmland to the east. Again, Joe Donnelly won this district in 2012.
39:
Carmel. Yes, Carmel. I have to believe this district will see a more competitive race in 2016. Well-educated district that 45 cratered in in 2016. This race has not been close in the past, but if there’s a pickup that would send shock waves throughout the state, this would be it. Realistically, I see it being more competitive in about a decade. As a side note, Hamilton County, and fellow suburban Indy county of Hendricks have the longest streak of voting Republican for President in the state. The streak goes back to 1912. I could see Hamilton breaking that streak in my lifetime, but not Hendricks.
91:
South suburban Indianapolis and Plainfield. It’s a reach, but it must be contested. Dems picked up an Indianapolis City Council seat in this area in 2015.
42:
North suburban Terre Haute and Vermillion County. In 2012, this race was won by the GOP by barely over 100 votes.
45:
This Sullivan and Vincennes-based seat really irks me. It was represented by a Democrat from 2010 until 2014. Then it wasn’t even contested in 2016.
74:
Now we get in to the ancestrally Democratic territory of the Ohio River Valley. This race is usually competitive, and can be again. Perry county is the most Democratic rural county in the state, and Crawford isn’t too far behind it.
72:
A rare compact Republican district that seems to make it somewhat competitive. This contains New Albany and its suburbs.
At least try:
11:
Now we move on to long shots that still have to be contested. Any seat that contains part of Lake County should be part of that effort.
49:
Goshen-based seat that has not been contested by a Dem in the past 2 races. Very tough haul, but it is worth a shot.
31:
Most of Marion, and Blackford County. The state legislative race was around a 6 point difference in 2012.
24:
Zionsville and western Carmel. One of those races where the only competition is the GOP primary. Should not be the case next year.
69:
The inclusion of this Seymour-based seat is more about the current representative, who is noteworthy in his awfulness. However, he ran unopposed last year. Anyone who runs against him will at least get some protest votes thrown their way. Worth a shot.
62:
Frankly, I was surprised at how close this Greene County-based seat has been in the past few years. It could flip in a wave.
Defend:
12:
Oh, you mean that even with a 20 seat disadvantage, that every Dem-held seat isn’t completely safe? Yes, it’s true. This Lake County district has switched hands between parties a few times recently.
35:
One of two largely rural districts held by a Democrat, this one lies in northern Madison County, as well as western Delaware County. The Dem here seems popular and relatively young.
66:
The other largely rural district, this one is based in Scott County. This would be tough to hold, if the incumbent ever decided to retire.
87:
Traditionally the closest race within Marion County, it has featured 2 different rockstar-type female legislators. Look for its last Rep, Christina Hale, to run for something else again. Current Rep Carey Hamilton is also someone to look out for in the future. But it’s still a race to keep tabs on, as I expect the GOP to contend hard here as always.
Conclusion:
I expect there might be yet other surprises that would pop up in a wave election year. And I can’t wait to see what they might be, if such a wave happens. Please let me know in the comments about other exciting candidates or races that you might know about.
