As a nuclear power with a very long history of coups, coup attempts and assassinations, Pakistan is a very worrisome problem. It's bad enough they're the world's worst nuclear proliferator -- it was they who gave N Korea uranium in exchange for missle technology, after all -- but the state police propped up the Taliban and nuclear scientists are said to be close to Islamist radicals.
It's weird to pray for a proliferating dictator's safety, but right now, that's the conventional realpolitick stance; understandable, given the alternatives. But things don't look good in that direction.
Billmon suggested the attempt on Musharraf's life could have been an inside job, noting a Wall Street Journal report that "Since the past assassination attempts, [Musharraf's] movements have been kept highly secret." Now the NY Times reports that the bomb, a huge 800 pounder strapped under a bridge, was planted smack in the middle of a key military zone:
A Western diplomat and a senior retired military officer said Monday the bomb went off only seven to eight seconds after the motorcade passed, rather than the 30 to 60 seconds the president had estimated.
The assassination attempt sent shock waves through Pakistan's security and political establishment. The attackers somehow managed to plant the bomb in the center of Rawalpindi, a web of army bases and military headquarters considered one of the safest communities in the country. It exploded only a half a mile from the headquarters of the Pakistani Army's 10th Corps.
Quick reminder, in case you'd forgotten, that bin Laden is presumably shuffling about the western badlands of Pakistan. But he's my convenient proxy; there are many madrassas and banned political organizations and Islamist militias in Pakistan that presumably have little or no connection with al Qaeda. But radical Islamists do have connections with the Pakistani military, key scientists, and the ISI.
Bush can smirk through news conferences all he wants. Doesn't change the fact that he effectively abandoned Afghanistan and conveniently turned his eyes from the troubling, troublesome troubles in Pakistan.