This is a good news-bad news kind of thing. The headline is that Coors has pulled ahead of Salazar by 5 points. But actually, the poll is good news for Salazar. If you know Colorado politics, the following will make sense: In the poll, Salazar leads on the West Slope (very unusual for a Dem) and is tied or slightly ahead in Jefferson County (our largest county) and Arapahoe (which is usually very Repub). And of course he runs up huge margins in Denver, Boulder, and Pueblo. Somehow, though, he's still losing by 5, which makes no sense at all. Clearly, they've oversampled Republican strongholds on the Eastern Plains and especially in El Paso County. But the internals look very good.
Bush is ahead by 5 as well, which is mighty suspicious (not that Bush is leading -- that makes sense -- but that Kerry and Salazar are at the same level). Salazar HAS to be doing better than Kerry. Nothing else makes any level of gut sense.
This is coming down to the wire, but unless we have poor turnout a la 2002, Salazar is looking like he has the edge.
By the way, Colorado's new voter registration numbers are finally in, and we appear to be the only state where Dems were not able to run up an advantage. The partisan registrations were essentially tied, with tons and tons of unaffiliates being the majority.