Several election night scenarios could put Kerry and Bush at a 269-269 electoral vote tie. If that happens, the House selects Bush. But what if Kerry eeks out an unexpected EV from the Omaha district?
The talking heads on cable rarely mention that Nebraska (along with Maine) splits its electoral votes. Two go to the overall state winner, and each congressional district gets one of the remaining three.
If the 2nd congressional district (containing Omaha) went for Kerry, that would turn a 269-269 tie into a Kerry victory with exactly 270 votes. Is it possible?
In 2000 the 2nd district had roughly 131,000 votes for Bush, 89,000 for Gore, and over 8,000 for Nader. Most of the Nader votes would go Kerry this time. Close to 20% of registered voters are independents, and I suspect more will go for Kerry than went for Gore. And it's a college town... there's the youth vote to consider.
The Democratic challenger for the House seat in that district is behind a three-term Republican incumbent by only 47-44 with 9% undecided.
It seems conceivable that this time around the 2nd could go for Kerry, with a little effort. What presidential candidate ever paid attention to Nebraska? A little campaigning might go a long way.
Bushco is running the numbers thinking they just need 269... and who's looking at Nebraska? Nebraskans are going for Bush 61-30, they're in the bag!
But Omaha isn't, necessarily.
Is there anyone focusing on Omaha? Is there anything we can do at this late date?