Now that Osama Bin Laden has released his latest tape, clearly attempting to influence the US election, it's even more incumbent on us to carefully and shrewdly analyze what's going on. One of the more
insightful discussions comes from Josh Meyer, in the LA Times. Meyer's basic thesis is that OBL is attempting to morph Al Qaida into a political force, in addition to a terrorist force. In fact, within the Muslim world, he's well on his way to doing just that.
Meanwhile, there is an election coming up. The Bushies are overjoyed that OBL has surfaced again, now very blatantly claiming that the more the electorate focuses on fear of terrorism, the more support Bush will have. The Kerry folks think OBL's appearance will remind people of what Bush has not accomplished, hence the need for new leadership. So far, initial tracking poll results seem to be supporting that view.
The emergence of OBL's Al Qaida as a political force -- a development undeniably well underway in the Muslim world -- means much more than either of these positions would suggest, however. To date, the US response to OBL has been brute force, brashly lashing out with profound violence -- mostly suffered by civilians, including many potential Al Qaida recruits. There's been nothing subtle about this response, and the neocons are quite proud of it. Indeed, Bush isn't capable of nuance -- even as OBL demonstrates he intends to embrace nuanced political maneuvering. All the more reason we need a President who will appreciate subtleties and nuance of the political messaging conflicts that are clearly coming -- if not here already. We need a President who has enough multi-tasking, cognitive horsepower to cope with an increasingly complex adversary. We need a President sufficiently free of the bellicose baggage to embody a fresh start -- free of the rigid neocon belligerence, whose arrogant thrashing in the world will only do us more immeasurable harm in the years ahead.
In other words, it's not just that Bush hasn't done the job. He doesn't now know what to do. To the extent Osama appears scary, it may help Bush. But as Osama starts to look more and more complex, it's Bush who looks scarier than ever.
[First published 10/30/04 at Real Progress]