To begin to pick apart "what Kerry did wrong" is counter-productive, I suspect. Likewise, I would suggest that looking for macro-trends is perhaps irrelevant. Does that seem like peculiar advice? Am I suggesting that analysis is wrong. Not at all, but I would like to slightly shift the focus of that analysis.
In the strongest of terms, I think Kerry always had an uphill battle ahead of him. Either he was nuts to think he could overcome those odds, or he knew, and felt that the stakes were so large that someone needed to give it their all, even if the outcome was uncertain. You and I might find Bush a less than appealing personality, and we might find many of his proposals and actions as the very worst form of pandering to wedge constituancies. Others, in the heat of this last four year period, did not view him in that light, either because they strongly agreed with his positions, or because they did not hold strong views on his positions, or, and I think most importantly, they are still in shock from September 11th. Ironically, the GOP was right: 9/11 DID change everything, at least for some of the electorate.
Here is a partial list of the inherent advantages that I believe that Bush had going into this election. There may be more that I've not thought of, but I am fairly confident about this list:
- Every incumbent enjoys huge advantages: Airforce One, being able to ladle out disaster relief, the call for continuity of public policy, as opposed to change, the opportunity to use Presidential powers to get photo-ops, to be given free broadcast time for "major policy addresses", the opportunity to be seen meeting with world leaders.
- I think there is a natural impulse in America to want to stick to the same President when a war is underway, even if the war appears to be going badly, unless it is an out and out disaster, which Iraq is not quite at this point.
- Bush enjoyed the advantage of having a well-funded team of campaign operatives already on the public payroll in the White House, working throughout his Presidency to help shape policy and the administration's storyline as to what was going on.
- Bush, as few Presidents that I can recall, boldly used his cabinet officials as shills for his administration. They were on public salary, doing partisan labors
- Bush, whatever his faults, can be a glib and engaging fellow, as long as you only pay attention to his delivery, rather than to what he is saying. In that, Bush had a bit of the confident movie actor about him, which is the same skill that Arnold has, Reagan had, etc.
and there are undoubtedly more...
Compare that to the battle that Dukakis faced:
- Bush 41 was not an incumbent as President
- There was no war on
- Bush had the Atwater operation behind him, but not the same level of organization
- Bush had not had control of the government minions
- Bush 41 was no motivational speaker
Can anyone recall how badly Dukakis got swamped? I'm not sure I can recall numbers that large. So what did Kerry lose by? A few million votes? I believe that one could attribute that much of a margin to my item #2 alone, even before adding in the factors of items 1, 3, 4 & 5.
Call me crazy, I think Kerry ran a pretty damn effective campaign, to do that well in the face of inherent barriers to people being willing to vote for him. How many people could survive the Swift Boat Vets and Stolen Honor assaults and still get over 50 million votes?
I suggest that we all just take a deep breath, pay off any bets we might have made, and start back to work, looking at the campaign to try to find out where it fell short, but as importantly, to discover how it managed to do as well as it did, in the face of the many barriers to it ever succeeding.
Also, importantly, I do not begrudge one dime or one minute that I devoted to the campaign. To come this close is a tremendous accomplishment, and will serve to have an effect on how our government behaves over the next four years. They know how unexpectedly close the outcome was. They know that an external event could have pushed Kerry over the top, they know they came a few percentage points, a few votes in a few key states, away from all of them losing their jobs. They will be studying Kerry's campaign to try to find out ways to counter any similar efforts in the next election. Let us give our efforts the credit they are due, then work to improve upon them and develop them into even more effective versions. With a bit of luck this would have done the trick this election, so let's make sure we are as well situated next election, in the event that luck breaks our way next time.