The Social Security Trustees have three projections for the future of the trust fund. Projection I forecasts using some of the trust fund, but things stabilizing pretty quickly after the boomers retire. Projection II, the median model, projects the trust fund out in around 2040.
Projection I is based upon future productivity of 1.9 %
Projection II is based upon future productivity of 1.6 %
The productivity of the last 10 years is 2 %
Projection I is based upon wage growth of 1.6 %
Projection II is based upon wage growth of 1.1 %
Wage growth for the last 10 years is 1.65 %
They get the statistical model for Projection II (the "official" model) by giving 70's-80's equal weight to the last 10 years.
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