Two big things concern me this Christmas evening (aside from my stomach, from dinner tonight): the Russians, and the Queen. While I know that's quite the juxtaposition, in the interests of diary conservation I decided to condense the two issue into one - hopefully, it will stay up for that one more minute.
For the more important of the two issues, the AP
reports that Russia successfully test-fired its mobile version of the
Topol-M missile. In case you had forgotten, the Cold War's nuclear arms race didn't really end in the eighties. While most people would consider a missile test as interesting as, say, watching paint dry, the Topol-M has some characteristics worthy of note:
- START II (which the Duma ratified in 2000) states that the Russians are to replace many of their multiple-warhead missiles with the Topol-M, a (currently) single-warhead capable missile. However, based on weight estimates, analysts suggest that it would not be especially hard for the missile to be converted into (at worst) a six-warhead capable system with not too much effort - they could even use the warheads left over from the missiles they just decommissioned.
- The Topol-M was especially designed to reduce its signature to satellite-based monitoring systems. While an old R-36M would take on the order of ten minutes to go through its burn phase (where the rocket is firing and is highly visible from space), this missile does it in "much less time." No source seems to have a specific number, but all agree that the missile will be much harder to detect than any previous Russian missile.
- Aside from the aforementioned reduced burn time, the other big technological advance in this missile lies in the warhead - it's been compared to a cruise missile mated to an ICBM. While my lack of Russian skills (and the understandable security around the project) limit what I can describe, the Topol-M's warheads should be able to greatly reduce the usefulness of standard missile defence systems. While traditional ICBMs have warheads that are relatively straightforward (in that they follow ballistic trajectories), the Topol-M's were designed to be manoeuvrable and reactive in flight. The idea being that they would alter their flightplans to avoid impacts with interceptors.
So for the two-line summary, this is something to watch. It's currently deployed in three different (silo-based) units, and is in the process of being rolled out into further ones, as described above. As of this successful test, the limiting factor is more the Russian economy (ICBMs don't come cheap) than the technology. Also worth keeping an eye out on the
previously-discussed military cooperation between the Russians and the Chinese. I don't think anyone wants to start a nuclear war, this thing seems like what you'd want to do it with.
And because I promised some Queen, tomorrow afternoon (3pm) is the Queen's Christmas Message. If you happen to be able to get British television, I would recommend watching it - it's one of my favourite holiday events. Essentially, it's the Queen speaking to the camera for about ten minutes, talking about her year, and centred on a theme - this year's is "tolerance and respect in a changing world." As it's billed, this is the Queen's only public speech where she "does not follow the advice of her ministers", meaning that she doesn't follow the Government's line.Her remarks are expected to touch on Iraq and school bullying, both as symbols of the aforementioned theme.
So is this speech important? Not in the least. As I mentioned, the Government has no role in its creation. It is in no way a hint of what the Government will pursue, and isn't binding on anyone. In its most basic form, it's a rich old lady that a few million people happen to respect talking about what she thinks of the world.
It's more important as a sense of British tradition, and a piece of history. In a few hundred years, the country has gone from being ruled by the Queen to being ruled by a (centre-left) democracy. Where the Queen used to rule by decree, we now only listen to her once or twice per year, and in this case, it's not legally critical what she says. I like it for the same reasons I applied for a ticket to the Trooping of the Colour from the Canadian embassy, and that I stood for ten hours at the Golden Jubilee parade to watch the family. Maybe I'm a monarchist at heart, but I still think it's special.
My personal routine for tomorrow? Wake up at noon, invite some (non-Christian) friends over, and get trashed on smoked salmon and 20-year old Champagne. And at three o'clock, you know what I'll be watching.
If, however, you don't dig the monarchy like I do, the Simpsons are providing Channel 4's Alternative Christmas Message at the same time.