Here are the results of the most recent
Scripps Howard Texas Poll, which mostly asked approve/disapprove questions about various politicians.
We'll start with the best news for President Bush, which is that he leads John Kerry in Texas by a 58-29 margin (4% "other", 9% "don't know/no answer"). That's up from 54-36 earlier this year. Not that anyone expected Texas to even remotely resemble a swing state, but we all know that Bush is going to depend heavily on his base in November, and Texas is very much his base. If he ever dips to 50% here, he's going to be in real trouble everywhere else.
Not so good for him: As with the national polls, Bush's overall approval and will-vote-for numbers are better than his numbers on specific issues. Here's the breakdown:
2. How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as president -- excellent, good, only fair or poor?
Spring '04 Fall '03 Spring '03
Excellent 25% 30% 43%
Good 34% 28% 28%
Only fair 20% 21% 16%
Poor 19% 20% 27%
DK/NA 2% 1% 2%
(Note: Yes, I can see that the Spring 03 numbers make no sense. Clearly, the Poor rating is supposed to be much lower.)
3. How would you rate the job President Bush is doing in handling the economy -excellent, good, only fair or poor?
Spring '04 Spring '03
Excellent 18% 13%
Good 31% 37%
Only fair 25% 24%
Poor 25% 23%
DK/NA 1% 3%
4. How would you rate the job President Bush is doing in handling the war in Iraq?
Spring '04 Fall '03 Spring '03
Excellent 21% 24% 50%
Good 29% 27% 28%
Fair 19% 19% 13%
Poor 29% 27% 8%
DK/NA 2% 3% 1%
(Note: the
Chron story says that Bush's "overall approval rating of 59 percent is a slight uptick from March, when 55 percent said he was doing an 'excellent' or 'good' job", but this looks to me like it was 58% last time the question was asked, not 55%. Either one is more likely to be margin of error variation than real movement, but I'm still curious if this was a math boo-boo on the Chron's part or if they're looking at different numbers.)
What this suggests to me is that maybe President Bush won't have such great coattails for the Republicans who are trying to knock off incumbent Democratic Congressmen. I've long believed that a successful strategy for the Democratic incumbents will be to express a certain amount of admiration for and agreement with the President while stressing their independence and willingness to oppose him when he's clearly wrong. With his ratings essentially in negative territory on these issues, that gives a lot of room for such positioning. From what I can tell, it's what they've all been doing. We'll see how it goes.
If the numbers are mixed for President Bush, they're awful for Governor Perry:
1. How would you rate the job Rick Perry is doing as governor?
Spring '04 Fall '03 Spring '03
Excellent 6% 10% 10%
Good 31% 36% 40%
Only fair 32% 24% 32%
Poor 20% 20% 12%
DK/NA 11% 10% 6%
Perspective:
Perry's disapproval rating in the winter and spring Texas Poll surveys has been the highest of any Texas governor since Bill Clements was enmeshed in a pay-for-play football scandal at Southern Methodist University in 1987.
But the biggest sign that Perry's re-election may be in jeopardy is how his job approval among Republicans sank like a stone during the past three months.
Among Republicans, 66 percent said Perry was doing a good job in the winter poll. Now, 51 percent of Republicans approve of Perry's job performance -- a 15 percentage point drop.
More perspective:
"He is in trouble," Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University, said of Mr. Perry. "He's seen as more partisan than thoughtful."
The
index page also adds that Perry's negatives "compares to Ann Richards' negative reviews in November 1994, when 48 percent gave a thumbs-down to the governor who had just been defeated."
Now, if you read all of these stories, no one in Austin has good numbers right now, something that's surely a by-product of the useless, do-nothing special session that just ended. Comptroller Strayhorn has the best ratings, with Lt. Gov. Dewhurst, Speaker Craddick, and the Lege overall all following Perry. Most people will forget about this stuff over time. 2006 is a long way away, and only a handful of legislators really have to worry about their seats this year. But I do believe that this is an opening, both for the Democrats and for some ambitious, not yet well known Republicans. We're already seeing announcements about candidacies for statewide offices. The next legislative session, whether another "special" session or next January's regular session, ought to be a doozy if these numbers haven't improved by then.