The word is out (www.politicspa.com) that Specter only raised $2.3 million this quarter. Hoeffel, his challenger, raised $1.1 million. Specter has roughly $3.5 million on hand, and Hoeffel has $1.4 million. While there is obviously still a disparity, it ain't too bad. Keep this in mind:
Hoeffel right now is behind Specter roughly 50-35 in every poll, although his name recognition is below his number of supporter, lagging around 20%. Just a few months before the primary, Toomey was behind Specter 55-17, if I recall correctly. Specter ended up edging Toomey 51-49. The important detail here? Specter outspent Toomey $14 million to $4 million.
Specter's approval rating is pretty damn low, hovering in the low 40s in most polls. The issue is not that people like Specter, it's that they don't know Hoeffel (who is actually quite likable, by the way). The conventional wisdom had been that Hoeffel's only real obstacle would be the tremendous financial gap between him and Specter. It now appears that the most Specter will be able to outspend him by is 3-1, and it may well be less than that, considering the self-fulfillingly prophetic nature of financial filings. Chances are that with Specter looking weak, the AFL-CIO is less likely to endorse him (which is the best we can hope for) and Hoeffel's fundraising will improve. If Specter had to outspend Toomey 4-1, he'll probably have to outspend Hoeffel by at least as much, considering the division in his own party from the primary and the relatively strong challenge from Clymer on the right.
I'm upgrading this race to toss-up in my own private Hotline.