I sent this email to my entire family, all of whom are lifelong Dems who think we're doomed. They watch mainstream press, so you can't really blame them.
I figure it's up to you and me to tell them what's really going on.
Hi all
This is a political email filled with great news. Fair warning.
It's funny but I've been missing all the angst about this race. Maybe I'm too busy, maybe it's the meds, but I just don't have any doubts. As you may know I'm an avid poll-watcher and they've looked just fine, even through this whole cry-baby phase that the Dems have apparently been going through.
This is the way I see it.
As Michael Moore says in the article, linked below, Bush never led by 13. In fact, to date, he's never led outside the Margin of Error. Time, Gallup, NYT, CBS, Newsweek and Washington Post have been using firms that assume the turnout for this year will be 36-38% GOP and 31-33% DEM. Let me repeat that. These firms claim in their methodology (the fine print that no one except dweebs read) that turnout will be 36-38% GOP and 31-33% DEM!!! In other words they think GOP will be more energized on election day.
The only problems with this assumption?
- We know we're pretty fired up, right?
- There's no historical basis for it. In fact more registered DEMS voted in 2000 than GOP! That's incredible when you consider that Gore's base was deflated (from news/polls that showed Bush was "definitely" going to win - familiar?) and the GOP couldn't wait to get rid of anyone with the stench of Clinton on him. They were fired up and we weren't, and we still beat them to the polls. I feel like repeating that point again, but I'll resist.
Any loyal Gippie (my name for GOP) will tell you that the state polls look tight for Kerry. They do. They also look tight for Bush. The media hasn't caught onto this yet, but we have. Bush needs to defend CO!!!, NV, OH, VA!!!, FL, AR!!! and NH. Those are all states he won in 2000, but now show a dead heat. Very bad news for the Chimp in Chief.
You can stop reading now, or you can feel even better about the current state of things by reading the rest. Beware, there are politically incorrect points about to be made.
This is how Kerry is going to win:
Nationally, the race is tied or (if you must be a worry-wart) Bush is slightly ahead, AND THIS IS WHEN BUSH'S (SMALLER) BASE IS 95% FOR HIM!!!! Kerry's base is around 79% for him. This is because he has been going for the middle of the road people. Successfully, I might add. He's WAY ahead amongst independents in almost every single poll (even the stupid polls).
But all of that is just noise. Here's the real kicker. I just took a look at a bunch of polls and the breakdown of African Americans shows that they are a huge part of the undecided vote right now. My take? MOST of that differential between the candidates' bases comes from an uninspired African American base! Sure, that's not good. Kerry should have been playing to this constituency all along. But it's part of a cynical (but brilliant) plan. Gore took 90% of the African American vote. Kerry, with just a nudge, will take at least that much. He has started to play to the base, and for the next five weeks we'll be his focus. And when we're inspired, Kerry will not only win, he'll win handily.
In other words, Kerry is doing exactly the opposite of what Dems have done in the past. He's saving the base for last. Pun intended. Kerry has been hiding this detail from his opponents and the media, as he has ALWAYS done in every campaign he's ever run (it's one of the reasons I've supported him since 2003). He has succeeded in staying a viable alternative to the independent (and undecided) voter. And in the final days I predict he will pull out Bill Clinton (in a wheelchair if need be) to get us all fired up even more.
I'm on record now -- Kerry will win the national vote by 4 or 5. He'll win the electoral vote by a margin that depends on which state he focuses on. If it's Arkansas then he'll win by around 10 electoral votes. Same with NC. If he focuses on FL or OH he'll win by even more. CO a little less. It's his choice.
Oh, by the way, undecided voters, historically, break BIG for the challenger in the final days of a campaign. The undecided tally is between 4-7% of those polled. Even more cushion for The Big Guy.
As Zogby has kept saying (the one pollster who got 2000 right) "This race is Kerry's to lose." Don't let the media tell you otherwise. A horse-race sells ads. Stop worrying and secure a friend's vote in a swing state, so we can have a victory party at mom and dad's. Free Bush toilet paper for everyone.
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P.S. read this for another shot of giggles
http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?messageDate=2004-09-20