"A man's character is his fate." --Epictetus
I'm very saddened to see events transpiring in this fashion. I've only wanted Bush to be revealed as the incompetent he is. We already had ample evidence for that--yellow cake, anyone?--but the Republican spinmasters have always tried to slap a brave face on things, and move on.
But it's impossible to spin the death-by-delay of thousands. And now, the approach of Hurricane Rita (already much stronger than Katrina was in this stage of development) presents an unprecedented end of the line for blustering and posturing. It's judgement day for George Bush, and he's trapped in a Failure Matrix of his own inadequacies and inaction.
Here's the matrix, and Bush's dilemna:
Two comparable public emergencies, one right after another. Bush's excuse for his inaction in Katrina was that his hands were tied by legalities and the system--nothing could have happened any faster. This was compounding lameness with lameness. Even the conservatives winced at this. Leadership, especially in times of crisis, is supposed to transcend bureaucracy and the entrenched fiefdoms thereof.
But that excuse is shot. It won't fly when Rita hits, will it?
Scenario #1
Rita hits the Texas coast. Federal response this time is swift, comprehensive, well-organized, well-executed, both compassionate and professional.
Result: Bush loses any political cover for Katrina. The only difference between this hurricane and the last one is that this time he's paying attention. Or are Texans more important than Louisianians in his eyes?
This is the scenario I'm praying for, because it minimizes the loss of life. I have absolutely no desire to politicize the situation, because we're waaay past politics here, folks. This is life and death.
Please, George Bush. Borrow a spine. Yes, you'll have demonstrated that your competence is conditional, but that's the corner you've painted yourself into.
Scenario #2
Rita hits the Texas coast. Federal response this time is as screwed-up--perhaps in different ways, but just as screwed up--as it was with Katrina.
Result: Bush unforgivably lets down his political base. Seen as incapable of stepping up to the plate, not once but twice. Tumbleweeds blow through the Oval Office, as his ineffectiveness makes Jimmy Carter look like Joe Stalin.
That is, I shudder to say, the most likely scenario. I mean, it's not as if FEMA has been reorganized or revitalized in the last three weeks, is it?
Scenario #3
Rita hits the Texas coast. In the certain knowledge that Federal response will be inadequate, Rove does what he knows best. Coalition-building? Out-of-the-box solutions? No: blame-spinning begins even before the hurricane touches land. Resources will "just be stretched too thin already," Bush will say. "TWO hurricanes--who woulda thunk it?" he'll add. Desperate attempts are made, somehow, anyhow, to blame all this on the Democrats.
Result: America quickly sickens of both Bush and the Rovian political machine. Political implications are, shall we say, far-reaching.
Somehow, I'm beginning to doubt that this scenario will unfold, as it assumes that Bush's people will defend him to the long-term detraction of the Republican Party. I think he's a little more disposable than that. I think he'd be put out to pasture before it came to that. We'd be watching Cheney step aside for President Guiliani faster than you can say "tragic undiagnosed heart condition."
Scenario #4
Rita hits the Louisiana coast.
Result: God help us all.
Let me frame this by saying I want none of it to happen. I want Hurricane Rita to disappear in a shower of harmless slow drizzle. I was in Louisiana when Katrina was bearing down. I was heading into New Orleans one hour before the roads closed. We turned around, and caught a flight out of Lafayette, because my wife, a Louisiana native, had been in several hurricanes, and she had a Bad Feeling about this one.
I, and my family, have been doing what we can to help. And we've watched every minute of the unfolding nightmare with the sickening guilt-ridden sense of having just missed having it happen to us.
I want to wish Hurricane Rita away. But it's not going away. And neither is the Failure Matrix that Bush finds himself in. We've left the realm of American politics. This is Greek tragedy.
Let me reprise the quote I opened with:
"A man's character is his fate." --Epictetus