Tuesday is the Primary, please allow me to set the field for you.
First let me lay out the primaries, then get to general elections. There are only 3 multi-candidate primaries on the Democratic Side, and 1 on the Republican side.
Democrats:
Attorney General:
Candidates:
Representative Dustin McDaniel
North Little Rock City Attorey Paul Suskie
Saline County Prosecutor Robert Herzfield
All of the candidates are less than 40, and McDaniel is only 32. Yet I support him, and he does have a very impressive resume for someone so young. Suskie is a DINO, and Herzfield is very conservative. McDaniel has been called a liberal, but really he's just moderate. This race is split, by that I mean there's a 50% chance it will go into a runoff, and a 50% chance that with the Conservative Vote Split, McDaniel will win outright. Either way he's the narrow favorite. Leans McDaniel.
Lieutenant Governor:
Candidates:
Businessman and former assistant admistrator of Social Security Bill Halter
House Majority Leader Jay Martin
Former State Rep and 01 challenge to Boozman, Mike Hathorn
State Senator and Chairman of the Taxation and Revenues Panel Tim Wooldridge
This is definetly going into a runoff. I don't very much care for Halter. Aside from being appointed as Assistant Administrator of Social Security for a few years, he doesn't have a whole lot of experience in running government, plus I don't like people who try to buy elections, and still think his switcheroo was a scam. Running in Governor's race to get a lot of free statewide news coverage, then switching to LG and getting more free news coverage. Wooldridge is just too Economically conservative for me, and Martin has gotten almost no momentum during this entire race. Hathorn is young, 32, and has a little experience, 4 years as a State Rep from Huntsville, which gives him some strength in NW Arkansas. I like him because he's so much like Clinton. He definetly gets my endorsement and vote. Hathorn also still has a chance to make it into the Run off with Halter, all he has to do is get over Wooldridge. Halter is still the slight favorite, but, I think Hathorn might just be able to win. Toss up
Treasurer:
Lincoln Aide Mac Campbell
Former State Rep Martha Schnoffer
Can't remember his name
This will likely go into a runoff. I like Campbell a lot, he's youthfull, has experience, and has some really great ideas. Schnoffer is conservative and less enthusastic about the job, she says that it's purely an administrators position, and shouldn't be used to put forth some of the programs Campbell has proposed, like setting up a college funds for poorer Arkansans. This will likely go into a runoff, but Campbell might be able to win outright. Either way the race is Campbell's to lose.
Republicans:
Former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks
State Rep Doug Matayo
State Senator Jim Holt
A recent Survey USA poll put Holt, the Republicans 04 Senate Nominee who performed pathetically against Lincoln, with a 57 point lead over both Banks and Matayo, even though he's the most controversial and hated politician in all Arkansas. Apparently Right Wing assholes love him. He's spent almost nothing, and hasn't bought a television ad, while Banks has spent almost 350,000 dollars, and is a more prominent and well known Republican than Holt. Banks also garnered the high endorsement of the State's largest Newspaper, the Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette, and several other major Arkansas newspapers and Magazines. The Gazette actually insulted Holt and begged Republicans not to vote for him. To qoute them, 'The sensible Republicans of this state should choose someone else. Holt is an old style Demaguging politician.' I guess this shows that we don't have any sensible or compassionate Republicans in this state. Holt was the guy who tried to ban illegal immigrants from sending their kids to school. Banks is a moderate, and I guess Republicans of this state aren't moderate, even though they don't have hardly any elected hard core conservatives whatsoever.
General Elections:
Governor: Everyone believes that Beebe has opened up a significant lead over Hutchinson. I believe Hutchinson's campaign has lost it's momentum, and in exchange, Beebe has gained the ball. The constant attacks on Beebe from the State Republican Party, and from Hutchinson seem to have backfired. An example, the Republican State Party filed an ethics complaint on Beebe for holding a job interview in his office. Yeah, it's true, didn't go through, but it's true. Another example, when Jason Willet, the Democratic Party Chairman attacked Hutchinson on eve of a report in a book by the former Inspector General that he seemed uninterested in his job, and was highly imcompetant. Hutchinson's campaign manager replied, "We won't handle these kinds of attacks. We all know Hutchinson's record, this man is just trying to sell a few books, and Beebe is clearly playing politics while we are trying to do what's best for the state of Arkansas." Doesn't make much sense does it. When the state party chairman insults you, you insult their Gubernatorial Candidate when he didn't say anything. Beebe has a huge 11 point lead over Hutchinson in the latest Rasmussen poll, well outside the margin of area. The unknown variable is the lawsuit against Poultry Farmers filed by the AG of Oklahoma who is clearly playing politics. I think that there is some polution being done by the Chicken litter that Poultry industry uses, but the best way to solve that problem was to talk to AR's state government, and have them pass new environmental laws, not file a lawsuit against Poultry Corporations and Poultry farmers. If OK wins, it will seriously hurt AR's economy, and Beebe. If Beebe wins, he will likely get a small boost. Leans Beebe.
Lieutenant Governor:
If Holt's the nominee this race is over before even begins. Solid Halter/Wooldridge/Martin/Hathorn.
Attorney General:
The Republicans have a fairly solid nominee in former State Senator Gunner DeLay. However, that's a pretty bad name to have in a year like this. Plus, DeLay's total cash intake has only been like 100,000 dollars, and he only has like 20-60 thousand Cash on hand. All three of the Democrats have raised over 300,000 thousand dollars, though if the Primary gets worse, they could enter pretty cash stripped. AR is different than what you're used to. You're used to vast Republican money machines leaving Democrats in the Dust. Here it's quite the opposite. Even Beebe has a 2.5:1 cash raised advantage over Hutchinson. All three major Democrats for LG have outraised all Republican LG candidate, and the same is true for the AG. The Democratic State Party on average raises twice as much money per month than Republicans, and the State Republican party as a whole is really quite weak and pathetic. Even if they do enter the race on an equal financial footing, the Democratic candidate will quickly outpace DeLay again. With McDaniel I'm betting that this likely going to be a regional race. With McDaniel painting him as an ultra-conservative Republican on the Fringe of American politics within his home district, Marion Berry's district, and with DeLay painting him as a far left liberal in the 3rd congressional district, his home district. I'm betting both will win their home districts in landslides. Ross's and Synder's districts will determine this race. Unfortunately for DeLay, both are highly Democratic leaning. Likely McDaniel
Treasurer:
This race is over after the Primary. The Republican candidate is at 25,000 dollars raised. The primary shouldn't get much worse. Campbell's going to get about 55% statewide.
State Legislature's balance:
Senate: 35 Members, 27D, 8R
House: 100 members: 72D, 28R
And this is with many moderate to liberal Republicans, like Dave Bisbee. There are very, very few hard core elected Republicans in this state. Even better, our legislature is pretty Democratic with it's policies and legislation.
Congressional Races:
1st district: Marion Berry
This district has a strong Democratic lean to it, and I believe that it hasn't elected a Republican since reconstruction. Marion Berry is a conservative to moderate Southern Democrat and is a five term incumbent, his opponent this year has not filed an FEC report yet. Solid Berry.
2nd Congressional: Vic Synder
This is Arkansas' 'Swing' District if you will. It contains the overwhelmingly Democratic Little Rock, and the strongly Republican Central Arkansas Suburbs as well as the slightly Democratic leaning North Little Rock. Synder is the most liberal member of Arkansas's Congressional Delegation. However, in 2004 Republicans put forth a strong and very well funded challenger, A State Rep who was a Republican leader in the house, only to see him get crushed by a 58-42 margin. Synder is now a 5 term incumbent like Berry. I believe he is some sort of veteran, maybe a Vietnam Veteran. Despite being fairly liberal, he is very popular with Suburban soccer moms, and moderate Republicans, I'm not sure why though. He is one of the few incumbents who refuses to raise any money at all until after the end of the 1st quarter. He faces a small business owner this year. His new opponent has a grand total of 3.5 thousand dollars cash on hand, and Synder still has a lot of money left over from previous races. Solid Synder.
3rd Congressional District: John Boozman
This is Arkansas' one uber, uber, uber, uber, uber, Republican district, this is where I'm stuck right now as I type this. Boozman is now a two term incumbent who was elected in a 2001 special election. He has a reasonably strong opponent in Military Reserve officer and Pharmicist Woodrow Anderson III. Bush however got 58% here in 2000, and 61% in 2004. This district heavily favors Republicans and is more like Oklahoma than Arkansas. In more than one way to. For instance, like Oklahoma, the Urban areas are mostly for some wierd reason, solidly Republican, while the country areas are Democratically leaning. This where Statewide Republicans get almost all their strength, and it's also where most of their State Senators and State Reps hail from. Solid Boozman.
4th Congressional District:
3 term incumbent Mike Ross holds this district. It is strongly Democratic leaning like Berry's. Not in Presidential races, but in local ones at least. Ross is a businessman and former State Senate Majority Leader. He ran unopposed last time, and is much like Berry, in both views, and voting record. His opponent this time hasn't filed an FEC report, while Ross has 600,000 dollars cash on hand. Solid Ross.
Now to end this little diary, I'd like to say a few more things about Arkansas. Most people believe that we're going to totally lose the south. Arkansas is definetly wierd, we're the only solidly Democratic, and buy Democratic I mean believing in the Economic Democratic Principals, in a sea of Conservativity. Let me tell you a little story about Arkansas. It's one of the few states where Republicans have lost ground since 1999. Let's take a look at 1999. They held 10 seats in the State Senate, and 33 in the State House, they held a U.S. Senate Seat, and a U.S. House seat, AR's Congressional Delegation was evenly split. Then in 2000, State Senator and State Senate Majority leader Mike Ross beat 4 term incumbent James Dickey, the first Republican elected to the 4th Congressional district since Reconstruction. Dickey has voted for Clinton's impeachment and it bit him in the ass. He choose not to seek a rematch in 2002. Dickey was the only Republican Incumbent outside of California to be defeated. 2000, 2002, and 2004, the Republicans slowly lost ground in the State Legislature, leaving them where they are today. In 2002 another right wing nut who voted for Clinton's Impeachment got beat, the first Republican U.S. Senator since Reconstruction lost his job even as Republicans swept through the south in a tsunami of Republican victories. This was also due to his divorce and maritial affairs, as well as suspicous financial dealings. Arkansas Attorney General, Mark Pryor, the son of a former AR governor and U.S. Senator, beat the incumbent by 8 percentage points. In doing so he won back his father's seat for the Democrats. Pryor is more liberal than Lincoln on economic issues, but it's rated a little more conservative since he is Pro-Life, and is the only Democratic Senator who has said he would vote to ban all abortions. But, Pryor's stances are kind of like mine anyway. As you can see, there has been nothing but a steady decline for AR Republicans since peaking in 1999, which is an 'only' for the south. The Congressional Delegation is now 5D 1R, and all of the Ds are fairly solid bets for reelection. Their decline will be completed this year. It is looking like they will lose their two statewide offices, the Governorship, and the Lieutenant Governorship. Now, if you will have just a little bit more patience with me, I'd like to predict the next two senate races.
2008: Mark Pryor D Incumbent
There aren't many who could hold him under 60%. State Senator Dave Bisbee a moderate from Benton County NW AR. Bisbee was almost elected President Pro-Tem in the overwhelmingly Democratic AR State Senate. He lost because of a Republican defection. He's well known, and liked, even by me. He's a moderate of the 1986-2002 McCain style. State Senator Gilbert Baker R-Conway. Baker is the Chairman of the Republican State Party, and is a hard core Conservative who's over performed in an area that's not that Republican leaning. He would have access to a lot of money, and that would make him a forminable opponent.
Mike Huckabee would be considerable threat if he ran, but still an underdog, but it appears to me at least, that he will not run.
Current LG Win Rockefeller would also be a big threat. A billionare, he is a well known and liked moderate who could self fund to an enormous degree. He would still be a significant underdog to this popular incumbent.
John Boozman, if he decided to run would have money, and some name recognition. But, it would a hail mary. Likely Pryor. Without any of these candidates, Solid Pryor.
2010: Blanche Lincoln D Incumbent
Lincoln did better than Bush statewide in 2004. She's way to conservative on economic issues for my tastes, but better than a Republican. Her 56% in 2004 will likely keep any strong Republican from challenging her. She's young, in 1998 she became the youngest woman ever elected to U.S. Senate at the age of 38. She will be only 50 in 2010. As a two term incumbent, it will be difficult for Republicans to seriously challenge her, especially since she's been such a profolic fundraiser in the past. Pretty much any of the people I mentioned about would be able to give her a race, but they would be just hail mary runs. Solid Lincoln.
So, as you can see, we have no vulnerable Democrats out here in Arkansas. We aren't filled with ancient DINOS representing uber Republican Seats that must be ceded to the other side when they retire. Like the old TX delegation precariously was. We have fairly young Democrats who have all just gotten elected in the past half a decade to a decade ago. Synder and Berry are in their late 50s, but they aren't expected to retire anytime soon. Ross is only in his late 40s and could probably serve another 30 years. We have a solid lock on all of these seats, and would be favored to hold them even as open seats. This is Arkansas, where our State Legislature will actually act like Democrats, which other Legislatures controlled by Democrats, like LA, MS, and AL, absolutely don't. Arkansas, the only Democratic State Left in the south, thank Howard Dean for trying to keep it that way.
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