Who to believe? What does rational analysis tell you? Is the military right, or is Sgrena? Chances are, neither.
Such an interesting story. First, going into the analysis of what happened and what's been said, one must keep in mind two perspectives. Perspective A - the US military which obviously is attempting to protect its image here at home, and with its ally Italy. This is especially true after Eason Jordan's famous claim that the US is targeting journalists in Iraq. And then there is Perspective B - a writer for far left Il Manifesto. She obviously comes from a vantage point that is decidedly against America's involvement in Iraq. She comes with a bias and an interest too.
Now the story. You can basically break this down into two parts: the actions and behavior of the car carrying Sgrena, and the actions and motives of the US military.
- We have a car of Italians heading to the airport. They had just been informed on the phone they were heading into an area with a heavy US military presence. They had also just spun out on the road and almost crashed due to the rain. Now let's examine this. First off, a US checkpoint is not so inconspicuous that a driver would simply miss it. Tanks, soldiers, barricades - someone driving in Baghdad at night is going to be wary. So, it seems pretty certain they noticed the checkpoint. Now, who's going to drive right through a friendly US checkpoint without stopping? The US claimed the vehicle was travelling at a high rate of speed, and did not slow or stop. Would these people really be driving fast through the city, after they had just spun out, after they had just been informed of US military units around, and after seeing a checkpoint? Probably not. This makes the claims of the US military rather dubious, in my eyes.
- So they shot at her, killing her guard but only wounding her. Sgrena claims the US military was attempting to assassinate her. This story, in my eyes, makes no sense. If the US military wanted her dead, she'd be dead. Her claims have very little evidence or rational validity to them. Not to mention her story is somewhat confused: she said once that there was no warning light flashed at their car, but Franco Ionta, an Italian magistrate, said that Sgrena told him there was a light flashed at them as the bullets were fired. So was there a light or not? She also told him the incident happened not at a checkpoint, but from a US patrol vehicle. So which is it? Her story does not compute in many areas. But, in retrospect, this event probably occurred in such quick fashion that Sgrena likely would have trouble piecing together a coherent story. She was in the middle of the chaos, the action. Hard to have any perspective from a position like that.
In my eyes, it seems like this story has two conclusions. One, the car probably was not speeding towards the checkpoint. The car probably was not given ample early warning to stop. The soldiers however got antsy - nighttime in Baghdad at a checkpoint would scare anyone to death. The soldiers blinked. They shot up the car. Their fault. Conclusion two: Sgrena has attempted to take advantage of the event. I think she came up with her assassination theory as a political manipulation - she wants Italy out of Iraq. What better way to push the Italian government to leave Iraq than a horrible tragedy that implicates the US in the murder an Italian citizen? Secondly, Sgrena has made quite a name for herself in this tragedy and will likely reap many rewards from the resulting fame and celebrity. Whether self-aggrandizement and celebrity enticed her to make such wild claims about the US military's intentions is obviously something no one can answer - but it is possible.
Lastly, in regards to the claim that the US military has been purposefully targeting journalists. Like I said above, in this case I don't think this qualifies. Sgrena was not being targeted purposefully. But I fully believe that the US has indeed targeted journalists both in Iraq and Afghanistan - especially those working for Arab news sources. Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya have both suffered losses in their press corps due to US military fire (Al Jazeera has been bombed twice, once in Kabul and once in Baghdad). I don't think there's much coincidence or luck involved here - the US does not want these Arabs reporting events on the ground to the Arab world.