I hate to kick conservative rumor down the field, but the CW at www.RedState.org seems to have moved sharply in the directon of Edith Jones in the past hour or so, as opposed to Edith Clement.
We know Jones is more conservative than Clement, so there are several implications if
this particular rumor comes true.
1) The White House wants a big fight. Jones is not the most conservative nominee Bush could pick, but she's certainly without the element of doubt and restraint and Souteresque qualities of Clement. This may even be tied to Rove, as an attempt to distract the media and get the Democrats to really fight back.
I think no matter what, the White House is going to get its nominee, especially considering that Owen, Brown, and Pryor were confirmed. All they need are 2 of the 7 GOP "moderates" from the gang of 14. There is really no realistic chance of the Dems stopping any nominee; the votes are not there, nuclear option or not.
So this would be a calculated decision to wage a bigger war, a war of attrition that would, they hope, put the Dems in a bad place. I think they believe that they'll always win this on the merits (the vote) and the spin (in the media). So, take no prisoners, and make the fight as big as possible.
2) This would in turn make the Rehnquist retirement and nomination in turn even bigger, as conservatives will be in a frenzy so close to overturning Roe.
I don't know that, if it is Jones, it's a smart move by the WH. As Schaivo showed, it's playing to the base, a base that's gotten smaller this year as the administration has stumbled from one front to the next. I can't see Jones appealing to the middle on anything other than a tepid "at least he picked a woman and it is the president who wants it" level. Clement could have been, if not a bridge to the middle, at least a sign of respect for the opinions of everyone not on Mehlman's blast fax list. With Jones, that's not the case.
Their mistake with Clement would have been making the battle too small and uncontroversial, a slightly bloodier Breyer fight. Jones is the opposite direction. This White House is good at a few things; beating Demcrats, strong arming their way through events, controlling the spin, managing expectations.
The Democrats, we need to figure out how to win the battle in public opinion and offer sharp contrasts between radical Rovian judicial philosophy and commonsense American ideals. Whichever Edith is picked, the larger war goes on til 2006, and we need to keep that in mind.