Last night, Bush told us the economy has created 4.5 million jobs in the last 2.5 years. (Notice how he used a figure from May 2003 instead of the beginning of his term in the White House?). But, Bush didn't mention a very important fact about these new jobs:
and the jobs created pay on average $9,000 less than the jobs lost.
First of all, compared to other economic expansions, Bush's job growth is dead last in total number of jobs created (add three zero's (000) to each number):
The expansion of 2/61 - 12/69 created 17,684 total jobs and 6,244 at 49 months.
The expansion of 3/75 - 7/80 created 13,183 total jobs and 12,831 at 49 months.
The expansion of 11/82 - 7/90 created 21,003 total jobs and 11,510 at 49 months.
The expansion of 3/91 - 3/01 created 23,969 total jobs and 8,266 at 49 months.
The current expansion which started in November 2001 has created a total of 3,410 jobs.
Bush' economy would have to triple the total number of jobs created in order to get to 4th place on this list.
In case you are wondering how the unemployment rate is low, people have left the labor force as explained in this report from the Boston Federal Reserve.
This history of weak job growth would explain the 4-year stagnation in median national income or the 4 year increase in the poverty rate. It would also explain why inflation adjusted non-supervisory wages have increased a total of 2.62% over 5 years.
But there is another disturbing trend at work: the quality of job creation as measured by annual earnings has dropped during this expansion.
The United States Conference of Mayors commissioned Global Insight to study this expansion's job creation record. The study is titled "The Role of Metro Areas in the U.S. Economy."
In 2003, Global Insight and the U.S. Conference of Mayors examined the quality of jobs lost from the beginning of the recession through the end of 2003, and those that were projected to be added back to the economy during 2004 and 2005. We projected that the average annual wage of $43,629 in the top ten sectors that lost jobs during the 2001-02 period would not be marched by the average wage of $35,855 in those sectors adding jobs through 2005. Job gains would come in sectors where wages average only 18% of those in the sectors hit hardest by the recession. This projected 18% gap reflected, in part, the higher-than-average wages paid in the declining manufacturing sectors. Many of those manufacturing jobs and others lost in the information sector had been send overseas due to outsourcing, or were lost due to firm and plant closings because of over-supply as demand waned. We now, with data through 2005, can assess those projections. Indeed, the measured wage gap given the composition of the actual jobs gains in 2004 and 2005 is substantially higher than our earlier projection. The average wage, measured in 2003, of those added jobs in the leading expanding sectors has been just $34,378, 4.1% lower than anticipated in the recovery. The wage gap created between jobs lost and jobs gained is 21%.
Over 2001-2003, the US lost 2 million durable goods manufacturing jobs that paid an average annual salary of $46,800. Over the same period, the US lost 800,000 non-durables manufacturing jobs with and annual salary of $40,700 and 500,000 information service jobs with an average annual salary of $57,300. These are the top three areas of job loss over the 2001-2003 period.
From 2003-2005, the top three areas of job growth occurred in administrative and support services (+680,000 jobs created), health care and social assistance (+620,000 jobs created) and leisure and entertainment (+546,000 jobs created). Respectively, each of these pays an average annual salary of $26,178, $37,410 and $14,750. Notice how the top three areas of job creating have noticably lower annual incomes.
In other words, the US economy is creating lower-quality jobs that pay less than the jobs lost. Color me impressed, Mr. President. Maybe next he can invent re-invent indentured servitude. Oh wait, there was that bankruptcy bill......