I realize everyone probably is focused primarily on the new air assault in Iraq. That being said, there's another ongoing conflict with deep implications, including the possible future strikes against Iran. Below is my analysis of that.
I told you there was some "Great Game" nonsense going on in Balochistan and it looks like further proof has developed
today.
At least 22 people were killed in southeastern Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan (sometimes spelled Balochistan) province, which abuts the southwest of Afghanistan. Many of the dead were government employees and it seems the target of the attack was the governor of Zahedan, the capital of the province.
An Iranian General specifically blamed "US and British intelligence" for the attack. And despite Iran's paranoia, I think they might be right on this one. The gunmen dressed up as Iranian police and then fled across the border into Afghanistan.
Gen Ahmadi-Moqaddam said he had information indicating that US and UK intelligence services had held meetings with the gunmen.
"The said intelligence services had instructed the local bandits on ways of undermining security in the region," he said.
This is a two-prong operation. The first is simply to destabilize Iran's eastern border so it has to commit more resources to the area. It also helps to undermine the government's authorities by showing it cannot maintain law and order.
The second prong of the operation is the entire Baloch operation, which stretches from Iran through Afghanistan into Pakistan. Below is my post from the old site on Balochistan, written on February 20, 2006.
--Begin here--
Despite the fact that Pakistan has a number of English-language media outlets, there's almost no reporting in the western traditional media on a war that's ongoing in the region of Balochistan.
Pakistan has the sixth largest population on the planet, with some 162 million citizens.
Surprisingly, it is divided into just four provinces plus a few extra territories (such as the capital). The four provinces as Punjab, Singh, Northwest Frontier Province and Balochistan. There is also a territorycalled the FATA, Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and of course the disputed section of Kashmir.
Pakistan came into existance as a result of the end of the British Empire's control over India in the late 1940's. When the line was drawn between what is now Pakistan (and Bangladesh) and India, millions of people crossed those lines, with those of Muslim faith heading north and those of Hindu and other faiths heading south.
The power center of the Pakistani government (since independence) has always been based on those who migrated into the country, called mujajirs or "refugees" (from India). Pakistan is composed chiefly of six groups:
- Tribal peoples - lived in what is now Pakistan before independence
- Pashhtuns - culturally and linguistically connected to the same ethnic group in Afghanistan
- Punjabi - Usually speaking Urdu, the official language of Pakistan, but most also speaking Punjab
- Sindh - Residing predominantly in Sindh Province (surprise!), most urban dwellers speaking Urdu but also speaking Sindh
- Baloch - Residing predominantly in Balochistan
There are a few others but those are the major groups. The mujahir are predominantly ethnic Punjabi and the Punjabi account for roughly 44% of the population.
The capital, Islamabad, is in Punjab Province and the country has always been ruled by the muhajir, along with close cooperation with Sindh Province. Although Pakistan the country is actually the 4 provinces and various territories, the reality on the ground is that the government of Pakistan only really controls Punjab and Sindh Provinces.
In a way it's sort of like how the United States used to be after the Louisiana Purchase. The federal government had fairly good control over the original 13 colonies/states but all those western territories were only nominally under the government's control. The FATA and NWFP for instance had been de facto independent until September 11. Those areas are inhabited by "tribes",
who form their own law, impose judgements and establish courts based on local custom and practice. There was almost no participation by the Islamabad government in these regions prior to 9/11.
As is well known now, the Pashtun inhabit both the NWFP and FATA as well as vast areas of southern and western Afghanistan. The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan was literally drawn on a map by the British colonial master at the time, a fellow by the name of Durand, and it bears his name to this day. The line is drawn through some of the most rugged and mountainous terrain in the world and is basically worthless as any kind of delimitation of sovereignty, as the locals regularly cross back and forth.
The area I'm going to focus on in this article however is Balochistan and the Baloch people, who not only inhabit the eponymous province in Pakistan but also live in southwestern Afghanistan and a large segment of eastern Iran (also called Balochistan). They are a cohesive ethnic group, referred to usually as "tribes", and speak their own language.
The Baloch only compromise about 4% of the population yet Balochistan is quite large, therefore you can derive how sparsely populated the province is. It's extremely mountainous and fairly arid, so the population is largely agricultural. That being said, there are roughly 7 million people living in Balochistan, most of them ethnic Balochs, with Punjabs living near the only town of any size, which is Quetta.
Prior to independence, there were actually four separate kingdoms (or "princely estates") in Balochistan. The ruler of the largest of these (Kalat), moved for independence for all of Balochistan but in 1948 (a year after independence) the Punjab-dominated Pakistani Army came into the region and forced the Baloch leaders to knuckle under. The Balochs periodically revolted against the Pakistani government and agitated for independence, especially in the period of 1955 to 1965, which included some fairly large battles.
Pakistan has been ruled by a number of military dictators and in 1973, the fun-lovin' Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (father to Benazir Bhutto) trumped up charges against Balochistan's leaders and dismissed their government. The Baloch once again revolted and for about a year there was open warfare between them and the Pak Army. This was followed by a few years of guerilla warfare and all told, some 10,000 people were killed in the fighting. It's worth noting here that the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran supported the Pak Army's crushing of Balochistan for fear that Iran's Baloch might rise up in revolt as well.
Since 1977, things have been relatively quiet in Balochistan and right now the Pakistani government (with major help from China) is building a deep water port in the city of Gwadar (which oddly enough was controlled by the emirate of Oman for a brief period).
The new uprising or war really took off in 2003. Partly this is due to the Baloch's desire for more autonomy (or outright independence) and partly because the country of Pakistan obtains an enormous amount of natural gas, coal and other resources from Balochistan and little of that goes back to the Baloch people. Except for a few of the more urban areas (especially Quetta), the Pakistani government relies on paramilitary units called the "Frontier Corps" to enforce their edicts. I will refer to these as "troops" although they are not full members of the Pakistani Army.
The tribe that has been causing the most problems for the Pakistani government is the Bugti tribe, which is located near and around the town of Dera Bugti, which unsurprisingly is in Dera Bugti District in Balochistan. You can see a crude but effective map of Balochistan here. This is largely due to the fact that Pakistan is working on a number of large projects nearby, including the construction of a dam for hydroelectric power (with much of the labor and engineering knowledge being provided by Chinese citizens).
These "tribal" units in Balochistan have been engaging in a de facto war for the last 2 and a half years. Here's a rundown from the last week alone:
- Three Chinese engineers and 1 Pakistani were shot dead in the area near Hub
- Two major electricity supply towers were blown up near Jacobabad which is in Sindh Province but supplies power to Balochistan
- Unidentified people fired "rockets" at Pakistani troops at their checkpoint in Sibbi District
- Seven bombs exploded in Dera Bugti, blowing up six oil wells and gas pipelines
- 1 gas pipeline was blown up at the Pirkoh gas field and 3 pipelines were blown up at the Loti gas field, in Dera Bugti district
Similar lists could be compiled from almost any week of the year. This is the level of the insurgency in Balochistan.
There are a number of insurgency groups operating in Balochistan, calling themselves the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA - the largest), the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). In the case of Dera Bugti, it is simply a matter that the Bugti tribe has organized itself to fight the central Pakistani government.
Why am I reporting on this now? The insurgency in Balochistan has been more or less in "full swing" since early 2005. However there are a number of new developments worth delving into.
Last week, the Pakistani government began issuing many public statements that India is "behind" the unrest in Balochistan:
Intelligence agencies have found proof of the involvement of India's Afghan consulates in creating unrest in Balochistan.
Sources said on Sunday that in a report to the government, intelligence agencies have provided "solid proof" that Indian consulates in Afghan cities are providing financial assistance to Baloch tribal leaders, along with funds and weapons to the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front.
This support has played "an important part" in worsening the situation in the province, the report says.
Besides funding Baloch militants, these consulates have also aided people carrying out terrorist acts along the Pak-Afghan border, the officials quoted the report as saying.
The military dictator of Pakistan, met with Afghan president Hamid Karzai on February 15 and these allegations were discussed. Karzai denied that a "third country" (India) was using Afghanistan's territory to destablize Pakistan. And Karzai also called on Pakistan to reign in the Taliban, who are regularly crossing the border (mostly from NWFP but also from Balochistan) to enter Afghanistan.
So is it true? Is India fomenting unrest in Balochistan? And why would they want to do that? The truth is that many different countries are vying over Balochistan for a variety of reasons.
The Chinese are not only Pakistan's number one arms supplier, they are also building the deep water port of Gwadar. This is advantageous to China because it would serve as a port by which oil shipments from the Middle East could be offloaded and transferred overland to China. Currently, Middle Eastern oil needs to be sent by ocean vessels around India and through the Straits of Malacca, a lengthy and sometimes perilous trip.
When Gwadar is finished, it will be able to receive oil tankers carrying 200,000 tons of petroleum apiece. This port of course will not be used just by China but it will definitely be to its advantage. As India and China are becoming rivals to acquire future sources of energy, Gwadar will definitely give China a leg up.
In the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, India successfully blockaded the port of Karachi, which put a serious hurting on Pakistan's economy. Having the port of Gwadar open for business, with a Chinese presence, is a further deterrant to India's regional dominance.
That however is only part of the equation. The proposed natural gas pipeline from Iran would run through Balochistan and eventually connect into India.
Furthermore, you may be surprised to know that the United States has a fairly serious military presence in Balochistan. It's not often reported, as it is occurring on Pakistani soil, but I've confirmed it from a number of sources (including here and here).
There is evidence that the U.S. is operating military bases in Dalbandin and Pasni, which are in Balochistan right on the coast. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the post 9/11 invasion, enormous numbers of Afghans refugees have arrived in Balochistan. It's quite clear that some of these are Taliban (or pro-Taliban) and have launched raids and raised funds for weapons and attacks from inside Balochistan.
The Balochi "belt" from Pakistan across southern Afghanistan into eastern Iran has long been a corridor to smuggle people, drugs and weapons. Maintaining a presence in Balochistan is absolutely key to the security of Afghanistan.
The Indians have not left this Balochi "belt" untouched either. A group of reporters from the small newspaper South Asia Times wrote a very long investigation piece about the insurgency in Balochistan in early 2005 and discovered quite a lot.
"Anyone wanting to set shop in Pakistan needs to lean on RAW," added Misha. The number of camps increased with time and now there is a big triangle of instability in Balochistan that has some 45 to 55 training camps, with each camp accommodating from 300 to 550 militants.
A massive amount of cash is flowing into these camps. American defence contractors - a generic term applicable to Pentagon operatives in civvies, CIA foot soldiers, instigators in double-disguise, fortune hunters, rehired ex-soldiers and free lancers - are reportedly playing a big part in shifting loads of money from Afghanistan to Balochistan. The Americans are invariably accompanied by their Afghan guides and interpreters.
The RAW is India's intelligence agency, similar in nature and scope to the American CIA. The writers of the above article questioned two ex-KGB agents (named Misha and Sasha, who during the Soviet Occupation helped form the BLA) about the uprising in Balochistan:
Question: From your comments it appears that Balach and Mengal are heading the resurrected BLA [Balochistan Liberation Army] and the BLA has been revived by the Americans and Russians to create trouble in Balochistan but could you give us any coherent reasons for going to such great lengths for disturbing Pakistan that is supposed to be a frontline ally of the United States on its war against terrorism?
Misha and Sasha: [Misha laughed so hard that tears came to his eyes while Sasha merely kept smiling in an absentminded way] - Frontline ally? Are you kidding? Americans are using Pakistan and Pakistanis would soon find it out if they have not already. Americans don't need that kind of allies and they have made it abundantly clear for anyone who can read their policy goals correctly. Let them deal with Iran and you would see. If there can be any desirable American ally in that region, that is Iran - Iran under a different regime, and they are working to that end. Except for Balochistan, the rest of Pakistan is useless for them.
You certainly don't hear that said very often. And the rest of the article is deeply informative, showing the various intricacies of the world powers and what they have to gain or lose by a revolt in Balochistan.
I'll sum them up:
India - By encouraging an uprising in Balochistan, this weakens the Pakistani government, which has to commit resources and untold thousands of troops to the region. The targeting of Chinese workers is deliberate as it discourages China from further projects in Balochistan, which puts a damper on its trade routes (esp for energy) in the region. Although India needs the Iranian-Pakistani-Indian gas pipeline, it first wants to discourage China's involvement esp in Gwadar to preserve regional hegemony.
Russia - The majority of the energy resources in Central Asia (esp those along the Caspian Sea) can only be exported via Russia. Any pipelines or ports that don't cross Russian territory is a loss of revenue. Furthermore the Iranian-Pakistani-Indian gas pipeline is another threat to this energy conduit dominance.
United States - Besides being a base to monitor and fight the Taliban/Al-Qaeda, controlling Balochistan and causing unrest blocks (contains) the Chinese. Using Balochs, it's also possible to enter Iranian territory and possibly inflame an uprising of Balochis in Iran to add pressure for "regime change" in Iran.
In other words, it's a loose three-way alliance (Russia, India and the U.S.) promoting unrest and instability in Balochistan versus a loose three-way alliance (Iran, China and Pakistan) to contain the insurgency. All part of that "grand game" that the superpowers have been playing for centuries.
You can read more on the strategic interests at the link. The Pakistanis wrote an extensive paper on the strategic significance of Gwadar, which you can read here.
A year ago, the CIA wrote a report which received almost no attention. That report said that Pakistan will be a failed state by 2015, "ripe with civil war and bloodshed". Can you guess what was the title of that report?
"Will Pakistan Invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA plan?".
--End here--
Since then, I've seen confirmation that part of the Port of Gwadar will be open for business starting this summer. It's unknown just how much shipping it will be able to handle right now.
Here's a few updates on the ignored war:
- Two power pylons were blown off that carry 300 megawatts of electricity yesterday in the town of Machh.
- Rockets were fired at a paramilitary checkpoint in Kohlu yesterday by "unknown persons". No casualties.
- Pakistan asked cable operators in Balochistan to ban (stop carrying) two Afghan channels because they are broadcasting "anti-Pakistan" propaganda. The "propaganda" is that Pakistan's ISI was behind an attempt to killed the ex-President of Afghanistan Sibghatullah Mujaddadi.
- A paramilitary vehicle was damaged by a landmine near Sibi
- Baloch Province governor Owais Ahmed Ghani says militants receiving funds from abroad, hinting at this being Afghanistan.
- The poor security in Balochistan is an "impediment" to foreign investment in Pakistan
The last item was spoken by new American Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, talking about the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Yes indeed. But if there's regime change in Iran, suddenly then Balochistan can be "stabilized enough" to build a pipeline through it.
Some members of the Pak Senate meanwhile are calling for a halt of military operations in Balochistan to avoid a situation like what happened in 1971 when Bangladesh broke off to become an independent country.
And look at this:
Bugti tribe chief Nawab Akbar Bugti has fled to Iran, Aaj television channel reported on Wednesday.
Bugti, who is also chief of the Jamhoori Watan Party, left for Zahidan in Iran one week ago through Kharan, the channel quoted sources close to Bugti as saying.
Official sources did not confirm the report, but a secret investigation is underway to ascertain how Bugti managed to flee to Iran, the channel reported.
The Bugti tribe is located in the heart of Pakistani Balochistan, although of course this report is denied. Is the chief of the Bugti's in Iranian Balochistan now? Impossible to say.
Something else I forgot to link to in my original article: Seymour Hersh has been saying for two years that the American military has been carrying out on the ground recon missions in Iran. The government said his article was "riddled with inaccuracies" but failed to specify which parts were inaccurate.
I'll definitely be keeping a sharp eye on this one.
Cross-posted from the new Flogging the Simian
Peace