In the newest
National Journal ranking of competitive House races, the Arcuri race in
NY24 has moved up to #11 from #16, the Gillibrand race in
NY20 has moved up to #24, and the Mejias race in
NY3 has been added to the list. With the top of the ticket headed to an overwhelming victory, New York
the swing state. If we're going to take back the House, we need to win here in New York.
And we can win. Polling on a generic House ballot continues to show Republican candidates decidedly behind as George Bush's unpopularity drags his Congressional allies down with him. Larry Sabato is now predicting that House Republicans will lose 12-15 seats - and the momentum to make more seats competitive is on our side.
More after the jump.
The fundraising numbers bear this out. This quote is from a
Washington Post article on the success challengers are having in running for Republican-held seats:
"Of this year's 27 most vulnerable incumbents, 14 face challengers who have raised at least $1 million, according to FEC reports. At this point in 2004, no Democratic challenger had raised $1 million. What's more, all but one of the 27 Democratic challengers has raised at least $400,000 -- a figure that many election experts consider a minimum price of entry for candidates hoping to mount a credible campaign. Taking into account all House races, 36 Democratic challengers have cleared the $400,000 threshold.
...
For political finance experts, the data are striking because they show that the usual fundraising advantage of incumbents -- who tend to have more access to special-interest money -- is durable but not impervious to competing trends. This year, these include a highly motivated base of Democratic activists and low approval ratings for President Bush and the Republican leadership in Congress."
You can see more
FEC numbers online.
But we haven't won yet. You can expect to see a lot of Karl Rove-style attacks as embattled Republican candidates open up a barrage of negative attacks and say anything to smear their opponents.
The Working Families Party is cross-endorsing like-minded Democratic challengers for Congress and putting together a grassroots canvassing and media effort to win these Republican-held House seats and Take Back Congress. The WFP was the margin of victory in close New York House races in 2002 when Tim Bishop won in Suffolk and in 2004 when Brian Higgins won in Buffalo.
We made the difference in their victories because an endorsement on the WFP line adds to the votes a candidate gets. Our line gives voters who agree with a candidate on the need to stand up for working families but disagree on other issues a way to vote for the candidate based on the issues they do agree on and ignore the rest.
It's going to be a hard fight, but working together we can do it. Let's Take Back Congress - volunteer or donate today!
4 competitive races
New York
Pennsylvania
3 competitive races
Connecticut
Indiana
Ohio
2 competitive races
Colorado
Arizona
Kentucky
Texas
Minnesota
New Hampshire
1 competitive race
Iowa
Florida
New Mexico
North Carolina
Washington
Illinois
Virginia
Wisconsin
Nevada
California