We've all hear the old saying that numbers are like people- torture them enough and you can get them to say anything. The Hartford Courant's David Lightman seems to think numbers are more like door to door salesmen- ignore them and they'll just go away.
In his October 11th article "Shays Hits Hard In Page Scandal", Lightman offers us the subheadline "Polls Show Issue Not Helping Democrats". Lightman takes a moment to offer Christopher Shays' (R-CT) personal attack on Ted Kennedy, and then delves into these "polls":
"An ABC News/Washington Post survey taken Oct. 5 to 8 found that three of every four respondents did not think Democrats would have handled the Foley matter any better, and roughly two in three thought Democrats were pursuing the matter for political gain, not to raise legitimate concerns."
The article is online at http://www.courant.com/...
Lightman does not bother to discuss a Newsweek poll done Oct. 5 to 6 which showed 52% of Americans thought Hastert should resign over the matter while just 24% said he should not. He also fails to mention a NY Times/CBS poll which concluded "that 79 per cent of registered voters thought House Republican leaders were more concerned about their political standing than about the safety of the teenagers who work as congressional pages." Heck, even Tony Snow admitted the Foley matter "had an impact" on public opinion.
Here are some poll comparisons of likely voters (before Foley vs. after):
Generic Congressional Vote-
Before Foley (mid Sept): Dem Rep Dem+margin
USA Today/Gallup 48% 48% 0%
ABC/WaPost 50% 42% +8%
CNN 55% 42% +13%
CBS/NYT 50% 35% +15%
After Foley (10/6-8): Dem Rep Dem+margin
USA Today/Gallup 59% 36% +23%
ABC/WaPost 54% 41% +13%
CNN 58% 37% +21%
CBS/NYT 49% 35% +14%
In addition to citing only a part of the ABC/Washington Post poll, Lightman also offers this claim: "A Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 21 to Oct. 4 had similar findings. Before the Foley scandal broke, voters preferred Democrats to Republicans by 13 percentage points - and after the congressman resigned Sept. 29, the margin was the same."
One can only guess why Lightman relies on the Pew Research poll without citing other polls, such as the USA Today/Gallup poll which showed a 23% change, or the CNN poll which showed an 8% change. I guess since these polls don't help support Lightman's claim, there is no reason for him to include them.
I conclude by offering the Washington Post's summary of its own polling data, data which Lightman selectively cites to make the claim that the Foley matter is having no impact:
"Democrats have regained a commanding position going into the final weeks of the midterm-election campaigns, with support eroding for Republicans on Iraq, ethics and presidential leadership, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Apparent Republican gains in September have been reversed in the face of mounting U.S. casualties and gloomy forecasts from Iraq and the scandal involving Mark Foley (R-Fla.), who was forced to resign his congressional post over sexually graphic online conversations with former House pages."
-David Lightman is the Courant's Washington Bureau Chief and can be contacted at dlightman@courant.com-