Majority Watch has a new batch of polls up that were conducted from October 24-26 that shows excellent numbers for the House for the Dems. Based on their polling, Dems will have a 240 to 193 lead with 2 ties. MoEs vary from 2.9%-3.1% and we've got trendlines on most of them too.
More below with a list of all the seats just polled and results...
The latest batch of poll data, Oct 24-26, with lead numbers in R+ or D+ format. MoE varies from 2.9% to 3.1%.
Update: The numbers inside the parentheses are the old numbers from the last poll they did (the date of which is provided in the Trend Line Date column). The new numbers are the ones NOT in parentheses. Apologies to anyone I confused by putting Oct 24-26 in parentheses above before.
Race | Republican | Democrat | Margin | Trend Line Date |
AZ-01 | Renzi 48% (46%) | Simon 46% (51%) | R+2 (D+5) | Oct 8-10 |
CA-04 | Doolittle 49% (52%) | Brown 46% (44%) | R+3 (R+8) | Oct 8-10 |
CA-11 | Pombo 46% | McNerney 48% | D+2 | N/A |
CO-04 | Musgrave 45% (47%) | Paccione 48% (41%) | D+3 (R+6 | Aug 27-29 |
CO-07 | O'Donnell 46% (48%) | Perlmutter 51% (47%) | D+5 (R+1) | Oct 8-10 |
CT-02 | Simmons 45% (45%) | Courtney 51% (51%) | D+6 (D+6) | Aug 27-29 |
CT-04 | Shays 52% (49%) | Farrell 43% (42%) | R+9 (R+7) | Aug 27-29 |
CT-05 | Johnson 43% (52%) | Murphy 51% (46%) | D+8 (R+6) | Oct 8-10 |
FL-13 | Buchanan 47% (45%) | Jennings 49% (47%) | D+2 (D+2) | Oct 8-10 |
FL-22 | Shaw 48% (52%) | Klein 50% (44%) | D+2 (R+8) | Aug 27-29 |
IA-02 | Leach 50% (48%) | Loebsack 48% (48%) | R+2 (Tie) | Oct 8-10 |
IL-06 | Roskam 47% (47%) | Duckworth 48% (46%) | D+1 (R+1) | Oct 8-10 |
IL-08 | McSweeney 45% (44%) | Bean 50% (47%) | D+5 (D+3) | Oct 15-16 |
IL-10 | Kirk 46% (46%) | Seals 48% (44%) | D+2 (R+2) | Oct 15-16 |
IN-02 | Chocola 45% (46%) | Donnelly 48% (50%) | D+3 (D+4) | Oct 8-10 |
IN-08 | Hostettler 43% (45%) | Ellsworth 53% (51%) | D+10 (D+6) | Sep 8-10 |
IN-09 | Sodrel 43% (42%) | Hill 51% (53%) | D+8 (D+11) | Sep 8-10 |
KY-03 | Northrup 46% (48%) | Yarmuth 52% (48%) | D+6 (Tie) | Oct 8-10 |
KY-04 | Davis 46% (49%) | Lucas 50% (46%) | D+4 (R+3) | Oct 8-10 |
MN-01 | Gutknecht 50% (48%) | Walz 47% (47%) | R+3 (R+1) | Oct 8-10 |
MN-06 | Bachman 48% (45%) | Wetterling 47% (49%) | R+1 (D+4) | Oct 8-10 |
NC-08 | Hayes 44% (44%) | Kissell 48% (51%) | D+4 (D+7) | Oct 8-10 |
NC-11 | Taylor 44% (44%) | Shuler 53% (52%) | D+9 (D+8) | Oct 8-10 |
NH-02 | Bass 47% | Hodes 50% | D+3 | N/A |
NJ-07 | Ferguson 46% (49%) | Stender 43% (46%) | R+3 (R+3) | Oct 8-10 |
NV-03 | Porter 51% (51%) | Hafen 44% (43%) | R+7 (R+8) | Aug 27-29 |
NY-03 | King 51% (47%) | Mejias 44% (45%) | R+7 (R+2) | Oct 8-10 |
NY-19 | Kelly 47% (41%) | Hall 49% (49%) | D+2 (D+9) | Oct 15-16 |
NY-20 | Sweeney 42% (41%) | Gillibrand 53% (54%) | D+11 (D+13) | Oct 15-16 |
NY-25 | Walsh 44% (43%) | Maffei 53% (51%) | D+9 (D+8) | Oct 15-16 |
NY-29 | Kuhl 42% (40%) | Massa 53% (52%) | D+11 (D+12) | Oct 15-16 |
OH-01 | Chabot 46% | Cranley 48% | D+2 | N/A |
OH-02 | Schmidt 51% (45%) | Wulsin 46% (48%) | R+5 (D+3) | Oct 8-10 |
OH-12 | Tiberi 51% | Shamansky 46% | R+5 | N/A |
PA-04 | Hart 51% | Altmire 47% | R+4 | N/A |
PA-06 | Gerlach 46% (46%) | Murphy 51% (52%) | D+5 (D+6) | Oct 8-10 |
PA-08 | Fitzpatrick 47% (53%) | Murphy 50% (45%) | D+3 (R+8) | Aug 27-29 |
VA-02 | Drake 45% (49%) | Kellam 50% (45%) | D+5 (R+4) | Oct 8-10 |
WA-05 | McMorris 51% | Goldmark 46% | R+5 | N/A |
WA-08 | Reichert 47% (48%) | Burner 49% (45%) | D+2 (R+3) | Oct 8-10 |
WI-08 | Gard 45% (46%) | Kagen 51% (48%) | D+6 (D+2) | Oct 8-10 |
I'll let the poll experts dissect these results. The one conclusion I have drawn from this is that 2006 is the year of the Murphys. I'm just happy as a clam that Hall is still ahead (even if it is now within the MoE). Majority Watch is a project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics. Head on over the Majority Watch site for older data, cross tabs, and all sorts of other fun and interesting stuff.
(For those who are wondering, yes I did do the table by hand and yes my eyes do hurt now but I'll be fine and I thought everyone would love to see this).
As always, thanks for reading!
Update:
With the exception of IL-08 (Bean) all of these races are incumbent Republican races. By which I mean the party of the current seat holder is Republican, not that the Republican candidate is the current seat holder (there are some open seats in there). Just some food for thought.