Until now, in the Missouri Senate race, McCaskill and Talent have been neck-and-neck, within margins of error for the race. Advertising on TV has taken ugly turns. The race so far had been too close to call. Can this Senate seat be won by a Democratic candidate?
The USA Today/Gallup poll released Friday showed McCaskill favored by 48% of 577 likely voters, compared with 45% for Talent and 7% undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 5%, so this lead is still within the margin of error.
A Reuters/Zogby poll released Thursday showed Talent led McCaskill, 43% to 39%. The margin of error was plus or minus 4%, so this lead is still within the margin of error.
At the beginning of this week, Mason-Dixon Polling showed a tied race in Missouri, with each candidate at 43%, with 13% undecided. (Please don't ask me why the poll percentages don't add up to 100%; I'm assuming a rounding error.) The margin of error was plus or minus 4%.
Earlier polls also showed them neck and neck, with a Sept. 12th Rasmussen poll putting McCaskill at 45% and Talent at 42%. A Sept. 13th SurveyUSA poll put McCaskill ahead, 48% to 47%.
I think the tide is turning against Jim Talent, based on the purely anecdotal observation of some McCaskill yard signs versus virtually no Jim Talent yard signs, plus the likely fallout of the Foley scandal, but this is too close a margin. If this race is this close on November 7th, I fear election fraud could occur, and could escape detection.
Additional publicity will help. The two candidates will meet for their second debate on Sunday in a nationally televised appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press."
But here's the catch. I heard today (purely rumor) that the Republican Party will be pouring an additional 5 million dollars into Jim Talent's campaign. They've already poured $2.3 million into his campaign, versus the $1.4 million that McCaskill's received from the DSCC. The Republicans are also outspending us in coordinated expenditures; they've given $593,000 compared to McCaskill's $275,000.
Jim Talent won his Senate race by only 1%. Claire McCaskill lost the governor's race two years ago by only 3%. A chart showing how the polls on this particular race have been going, and future trends analysis, can be seen here: virtual dead heat
If the race is this close, with Republicans outspending Democratic candidates nearly 2 to 1, this is clearly a race that can be won. Missouri could help gain a Democratic Senate seat on November 7th! But we need your help.
This morning, I attended the Democratic political rally for Claire McCaskill in Kansas City. Opening comments by Representative Emmauel Cleaver were followed by Claire McCaskill, who expressed her confidence in us and her continuing need for volunteer help. Then the keynote speaker was introduced - Senator Barak Obama. The audience was enthusiastic.
Many members of the audience signed up to volunteer to help. Others went home with yard signs. I've arranged to take a vacation day from work on November 7th, so I can drive people to their voting locations.
We need your help. If you can spare any money for donating, please consider contributing to Missouri's Claire McCaskill. If you're in Missouri, please help donate some of your time. We're hitting crunch time. With a race this close, your help could really make a big difference in the Senate.
You can volunteer or donate at Claire McCaskill's campaign website
Thanks!
P.S. Afterward, I asked Congressman Cleaver why he didn't vote on the Military Commissions Act on Sept. 27th, which suspends habeas corpus for "enemy combatants." (The vote was 253 in favor, 168 against, and 12 not voting.) I told him I was disappointed that he hadn't voted against it.
He explained that he was in transit from Independence, Missouri back to Washington, DC. Rev. Cleaver had traveled back to Independence because a constituent pleaded with him to officiate at her son's funeral. Her son was a member of the military, killed in the line of duty in the Middle East. I thanked him for the explanation, and expressed my regret that yet another Missouri soldier died.
When will this senselessness end?!?
P.P.S. If I make any errors, in content or form, please correct me. (This is my first diary.)